DraftKings NBA Picks April 14: Who comes up big when the playoff start?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks April 14: Who comes up big when the playoff start?
Now, the second part of the NBA season starts. The two month section of the schedule where 16 teams battle for the championship. DraftKings still has their tournaments going, but many opt to sit this out due to the lack of late swap. We have four games on Saturday to start the playoffs. The late game tips 7.5 hours after the lineups lock. You don’t need me to tell you just how stupid that is.
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Fortunately, during the playoffs, the starting lineups are pretty easy to figure out. The tanking teams are gone. The resting starters are gone. Now we get to see the fruits of the Spurs’ labor of resting most of the team down the stretch.
That mitigates some of the risk, but injuries still happen. We already know that Curry will miss at least the first round, and Kyrie is out for the rest of the year. Kawhi Leonard wont play barring some sort of miracle, and Joel Embiid is doubtful for the first game of the series. Other than that, we know what to expect.
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Point Guards:
Best Bets:
Damian Lillard ($9,200): Lillard posted an impressive 48.6 DraftKings point per game average on the Pelicans this year. The Pelicans haven’t defended either guard position well all year, and Portland’s strength is their guard play. This series will be the place where a lot of points are earned.
John Wall ($8,500): The only thing that has stopped Wall over the past two weeks is back to back games. He has 127.25 DraftKings points over the last two games, both against playoff teams in Boston and Cleveland. Wall didn’t play a game against the Raptors this year. This will be the first. I don’t expect a huge game from Wall, but it could be at this price. If he hits 50 again, Wall is a huge bargain.
Honorable Mention:
Kyle Lowry ($7,300): Lowry struggled against the Wizards this year despite Wall not being in any of those games. Lowry carried the Raptors in the playoffs last year. This year, the rest of the team seems to be more involved. Whereas Lowry wasn’t a huge part of some games in the regular season, you likely wont see that come playoff time. We could see some nice games from Lowry for his price.
Quinn Cook ($5,800): Cook has taken the point guard job and run with it during the absence of Curry. The Spurs are a tough defensive team, but Cook has shown enough running this team that I’m not afraid to use him here. I would prefer him over Dragic and Rondo, both of whom were awful during their first round foes during the regular season.
Dark Horses:
Markelle Fultz ($3,800): Fultz is the definition of wild card here. He posted a triple double in just 25 minutes of playing time in the regular season finale. While that likely wont have much bearing on his playoff role, it certainly could. Fultz is starting to come into his own after losing more than half of his rookie season to injury. He is peaking at the right time, and the Sixers can definitely use him in the playoffs. How much they will is the question.
Tony Parker ($3,300): There is no word on whether the Spurs are going to reinsert Parker back into the starting five now that the playoffs are here, but it certainly seems possible. I definitely see Parker playing at least 25 minutes per game in this series. The playoff experience of Parker and Ginobili could swing this series. Knowing that the Spurs wont have to deal with Curry, it seems likely that the veteran guards will play more in what may be their final run.
My pick: Cook(PG)
Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
Jrue Holiday ($7,900): Holiday averaged 42.9 DraftKings points in four games against Portland this year, so there is plenty of potential here. Holiday has helped take the scoring load off of the Brow with Cousins out. There is still some potential for this team. The Pelicans played well down the stretch, and Holiday was a big reason why.
DeMar DeRozan ($7,600): DeRozan wasn’t nearly as big of a DFS contributor as he was last season, but he still had his moments. Like against the Wizards. DeRozan averaged 43.9 DraftKings points in four games against the Wizards this season. There is huge potential at this price.
Honorable Mention:
Bradley Beal ($7,000): The Raptors have allowed the fewest points to shooting guards of any team remaining in the playoffs. However, Beal still averaged 45.4 DraftKings points against them this season. That said, John Wall didn’t play in any of those games. Expect Beal’s numbers to take a bit of a hit, but 5x value shouldn’t be a problem at this price.
C.J. McCollum ($6,800): The Pelicans allowed the most fantasy points to shooting guards in the league this year, but CJ only averaged 30.9 against them. The potential is here. The numbers support CJ. If you are willing to ignore the actual head to head results on the course, that is.
Dark Horses:
J.J. Redick ($5,300): Redick was outstanding down the stretch for the red hot Sixers. He has at least 5x value in eight straight games. This wont be an easy matchup for Redick, but he did average 26.4 DraftKings points against Miami this season.
Dwyane Wade ($4,900): This is why the Heat got Wade back. It wasn’t just for a feel good story. The playoff experience that Wade will provide this team will be invaluable. They are going to need everything Wade has to try and knock out Philly. There is solid potential at this price.
Manu Ginobili ($3,800): It’s playoff time, and that means time for the veterans to shine. Gasol will more than likely go back into the starting lineup. While Manu and Tony Parker likely wont start, they are still going to play more minutes than they did in the regular season. There is solid potential for Manu at this price.
My pick: Redick(SG), Wade(G)
Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
Kevin Durant ($10,700): The Warriors got punished by Utah in their final regular season game. Will that have an effect on this team? Durant is still carrying the load for the Warriors. Even though he only averaged 48.1 DraftKings points in three games against the Spurs this year, his usage is so high that he is worth looking at as the anchor to your lineup.
Ben Simmons ($9,400): Simmons put up a 41.6 DraftKings point average on Miami this year. That would put up a little under 5x value, but this is the playoffs. Very few teams will have good matchups from here on out.
Honorable Mention:
Ersan Ilyasova ($5,600): Ilyasova was invaluable to the Sixers down the stretch with Embiid out. There is huge potential here going into the playoffs. Embiid will return at some point in this series. Until that point, I’m a big fan of Ilyasova here.
Justise Winslow ($5,000): This is the weakest position by far on the slate here. I don’t trust Covington against Miami. Porter’s role has decreased quite a bit with Wall back in the fold, so I would rather go elsewhere. Winslow is one of the better rebounders on the team, so he has a solid floor.
Dark Horses:
Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,900): Aminu put up 35.5 DraftKings points in the last meeting with the Pelicans. He held his own with A.D. heading to center with Boogie out. That will be the case in this series. There is solid potential with Aminu here, and looks like a nice value pick at a position begging to be punted.
Rudy Gay ($4,800): Gay was very good down the stretch for the Spurs. The team took it easy with him for much of the year, but the prolonged absence of Kawhi has made it necessary for someone else to step up. Gay has been that guy. He has playoff experience as well, and is going to be a solid part of this team in the playoffs for as long as the Spurs last.
My pick: Aminu(SF)
Power Forwards:
Best Bets:
LaMarcus Aldridge ($9,700): Aldridge put up 49.9 DraftKings points per game against the Warriors this season. He is going to have his hands full with Draymond, but Aldridge is the focal point of this offense. His usage is almost up there with Durant’s sans Curry. There is potential here.
Draymond Green ($7,400): Green averaged 34.8 DraftKings points per game against the Spurs this year. Green is more involved in the offense with Curry out, but he still doesn’t have enough of a role to stabilize his floor. Green’s numbers are all over the place, but he has always excelled in the playoffs. Look for more of that this year.
Honorable Mention:
Nikola Mirotic ($6,900): If you want to know why the Pelicans are in the playoffs and up to the six seed, here is the reason. Mirotic posted four straight games with more than 46 DraftKings points to close out the season. There is serious potential here. This is what the Pelicans had in mind when they traded for Mirotic. It is coming to fruition at the most important time for the Pelicans.
Dario Saric ($6,400): Saric was one of the guys I thought would sit in the finale after suffering a lacerated lip and chipped tooth 13 seconds into the Atlanta game. Saric not only played, but was 10-19 from the floor in that one. That is huge because Saric was struggling with his shot down the stretch. He had big games against Miami this year. This could be another with Embiid still out.
Dark Horses:
Serge Ibaka ($5,100): Ibaka posted six straight games of more than 30 DraftKings points before the finale. The Raptors made it clear in that stretch just what kind of role Ibaka would have come playoff time. He isn’t the kind of guy that the Raptors will lean on, but he is going to be a nice compliment to a team that could win the Eastern Conference.
Kyle Anderson ($4,600): Anderson averaged an impressive 35.5 DraftKings points against the Warriors this year. His athleticism is what helped him against the Warriors, but the emergence of Rudy Gay has cut a huge swath out of his playing time. For that reason, I don’t see Anderson having games like he did earlier in the season, but there is still some potential here.
My pick: Mirotic(PF), Saric(F)
Center:
Best Bet:
Anthony Davis ($11,300): Davis went berserk for 75 DraftKings points against the Blazers just a couple of weeks ago. The emergence of Mirotic has helped take the load off of Davis, but he can take over this game the way that no one else on this slate has the potential to. He may not drop 75 again, but mid 60’s seems likely.
Hassan Whiteside ($7,200): The Heat have to be encouraged by Whiteside’s play down the stretch. Whiteside averaged 36.8 DraftKings points in just 27 minutes per game against Philly this year. He should have a little easier go of it without having to deal with Embiid, but he isn’t going to see an increase in minutes. That caps his value a little.
Honorable Mention:
Jusuf Nurkic ($6,600): Nurkic has been a huge part of this Portland team once they realized that he was still in uniform. The Blazers went through a phase of playing Nurkic off the bench for about 25 minutes per game. Did that contribute to his strong finish to the season? Maybe. Whatever the reason is, Nurkic is a value at this price.
Marcin Gortat ($4,800): Gortat averaged 28.9 DraftKings points per game against Toronto this year. Most of the time, Gortat isn’t a guy that I would take a chance on. However, at this price and against a team that he played well against this year, you can do worse.
Dark Horses:
Pau Gasol ($4,700): There have been rumblings about Pau returning to the starting lineup for the playoffs, but that may not happen here. The Warriors run small, so Gasol could see limited minutes again in this series. I am going to take a wait and see approach with Pau here. There is a lot of risk involved.
Richaun Holmes ($4,000): If you are going this cheap, you know the risks. Holmes doesn’t start, and on top of that, the ability of Saric to play center with the surging Ilyasova moving to the four has resulted in even less minutes for Holmes. However, I think Philly is going to need the bulk of Holmes to deal with Whiteside, so there is some potential here.
My pick: Davis(C), Holmes(UTIL)
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