NBA Playoffs 2018: 5 biggest x-factors

5. Luc Mbah a Moute

He was just trying to yam on the Lakers. Mid-way through the second quarter in the penultimate game of the regular season, Luc Mbah a Moute set a screen for James Harden. Harden delivered the bounce pass to Mbah a Moute, who cut through the middle of the Lakers defense and dunked on rookie center Thomas Bryant. It looked dope, but Mbah a Moute came up grabbing his right shoulder. You could see it from the replay: It popped out. Now Mbah a Moute is likely to miss the first round of the playoffs with a dislocated right shoulder.

Luckily for the Rockets, they still have Harden and Chris Paul. That should be enough to get them through the first round in the West. They’ll need Mbah a Moute to make it further.

Before we get to his defense, let’s look at what Mbah a Moute provides on offense. His 3-point shooting is the tide that raises Houston’s ship. In games when Mbah a Moute makes two or more 3-pointers, the Rockets are 17-2 — they are winning almost 90 percent of those games. In games when he makes less than two 3-pointers, they are 35-7, a winning percentage of 83, still very good, but not quite as dominate. In games when Mbah a Moute didn’t play the Rockets were 13-7, winning 65 percent of their games. Without Mbah a Moute on the court, the Rockets are an above average basketball team. Above average won’t beat the Golden State Warriors.

Mbah a Moute is having the best 3-point shooting season of his 10-year career (averaging one per game), though his per game averages are modest: 7.5 points, 3.0 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 0.9 assists in 25.6 minutes. He is Houston’s third forward behind Trevor Ariza and P.J. Tucker, but is the best perimeter defender of the group. When he’s making shots, he becomes more playable, and unlocks some of Houston’s deadliest lineups.

According to Cleaning The Glass, lineups with Tucker at center and Mbah a Moute at one of the forward positions are torching opponents by 31.6 points per 100 possessions. Think of him as Houston’s version of Andre Iguodala — who allows the Warriors to play Draymond Green at center. We’ve already seen what Iguodala can do for a playoff team — he even won an NBA Finals MVP. It’s not crazy to think Mbah a Moute could have a similar impact for the Rockets.