NBA Playoffs 2018: 5 biggest x-factors

3. Jusuf Nurkic

Portland’s late-season surge has a lot to do with Jusuf Nurkic finding his touch. The Trail Blazers are 12-1 in games when Nurkic makes seven or more shots, and eight of those games have been since Feb. 28.

Nurkic has been cursed with inconsistent shooting touch around the basket. He’s making just 55.5 percent of his shots in the paint, an incredibly low rate for a center.

Bloopers like this will play Nurkic off the court.

However, he’s been better since March, making 62 percent of his shots near the rim, per NBA.com/Stats. Still not great, but better. He’ll need to maintain that rate in the playoffs.

An effective and dominate Nurkic could give the Trail Blazers an unmatched weapon in a series against Golden State or Houston and help them steal a game or two.

Against the Rockets, Nurkic will have to match Clint Capela by walling him off on pick-and-rolls defensively, and not getting out-scored offensively.

The Warriors have been shuffling centers all season, and are at their best when they go small. Portland has ways to match up with them–they could play Al-Farouq Aminu at the 5, and Zach Collins and Ed Davis are more mobile than Nurkic–but they’d be better off if they could limit their exposure to Golden State’s death lineup. The only way to do that is to make them pay when they take a big man off the floor, and the only way to do that is to force-feed Nurkic and hope he delivers.