Spurs-Warriors (Game 1)
There are a lot of uncertainties in this series. On paper, the Warriors have more firepower. But without Steph Curry, there are question marks surrounding their offense. There are no question marks in the Spurs offense. They rely heavily on one guy and you just have to hope their role players show up.
Build Your Team Around
LaMarcus Aldridge ($9,700): He’s by far the most reliable guy on San Antonio. In two March games against the Warriors, he was over 50 fantasy points. The concern is he was under 30 fantasy points three of four games last season against the Warriors. But both teams are in a different position. While San Antonio had to figure things out on the fly without Kawhi Leonard last year, they’ve built their offense around Aldridge all season. The Warriors have looked vulnerable on defense this season, but they’ll turn it up in the playoffs. Still, Aldridge is going to get his points and rebounds.
Kevin Durant ($10,700): The Warriors offense is a bit in shambles without Steph Curry. But we know Durant can elevate his game in the playoffs and he’s still the top option in Golden State. He was over 50 fantasy points in three of four games against the Spurs last season. Without Leonard hounding him, he’s able to get points at will.
Reliable Options
Klay Thompson ($6,200): With no Steph Curry, Thompson is the second scoring option in Golden State. He’s capable of giving you 30-plus fantasy points on any given night, but even if he doesn’t reach that number, he’s not going to hurt your team. He’s good for at least 25 fantasy points given his shooting prowess and defensive ability.
Draymond Green ($7,400): Green is capable of a triple-double on any night, but his game doesn’t always translate to DFS. That said, he has an extra gear in the playoffs and this is a matchup he’s had success against. Take away the March 19 game where he played 12 minutes due to injury and he averaged 45.1 fantasy points in three games against the Spurs. He’s going to put up solid numbers in all categories.
Risky But Rewardable
Kyle Anderson ($4,600): Anderson has proven to be a pest against the Warriors. He was over 35 fantasy points in three of four games against them this season. He was over 24 fantasy points in the three games following Leonard’s injury last playoffs. He’s a guy who has been thrown into the fire and succeed. He was inconsistent this season, but the pedigree is there.
Dejounte Murray ($5,500): Murray was inconsistent as a starter this season, hitting value in 56 percent of games. He averaged 28.9 fantasy points in the two March games against the Warriors. The Spurs need Murray to step up if they have any hope of stealing a game or two from Golden State. He had 30-plus fantasy points in two playoff games against the Warriors last season. He was at 15 fantasy points in the other two.
Quinn Cook ($5,800): Cook had 32.75 fantasy points in 38 minutes against San Antonio on Mar. 19, but only 4.25 fantasy points in 22 minutes in the March 8 meeting. The Warriors tried to integrate him into the offense as best they could at the end of the season, but it didn’t always work out. He’s going to play big minutes alongside the three All-Stars and with the Spurs attention on Durant and Thompson, it could open things up for Cook.
Role Players
Spurs: Danny Green ($4,400) and Patty Mills ($4,500) are likely to get minutes due to their defense. In San Antonio’s last five games, Mills was the only player aside from Aldridge to post a usage rate over 30 percent. Manu Ginobili ($3,800), Tony Parker ($3,300), and Pau Gasol ($4,700) are playoff veterans but their old legs may not be effective against the Warriors. Rudy Gay ($4,800) might be used more often due to his scoring.
Warriors: Shaun Livingston ($3,200) played very well against the Spurs this season. If Quinn Cook falters in any way, Livingston could see an increase in playing time. Steve Kerr loves giving David West ($3,400) minutes and opportunities with the second unit. Andre Iguodala ($4,600) should play solid minutes as the the Warriors go small in an effort to run the Spurs off the floor. Kevon Looney ($4,100) played big minutes down the stretch, but it’s unknown whether or not Kerr will trust him in the playoffs. He could pay dividends in Game 1.
Overall Advice
Aside from the four All-Stars, there are a lot of unknowns in this one. You pretty much know what you’re getting out of Durant, Thompson, Green, and Aldridge, but everyone else could go either way. It’s likely that Murray or Anderson has a big game for the Spurs, but picking the right one will be key.