Jazz-Thunder (Game 1)
This toughest series to predict in the playoffs. A lot of unknown factors in Game 1 as the Jazz enter with an inexperienced backcourt and the Thunder enter with plenty of inconsistencies. There is a lot of talent available but only one certainty.
The Lock
Russell Westbrook ($11,200): Throw out everything that happened between these two teams in the regular season. Both squads are in a much different spot. What’s not different is the fact that Westbrook is one of the best players in the league and puts up huge fantasy numbers. The Jazz have a tough defense, but it may not matter if Westbrook gets rolling.
Inexperienced Backcourt
Donovan Mitchell ($7,400): Mitchell defied expectations all season, but he’s never been in this position before. Not having to deal with Andre Roberson is a big help, but he could see a lot Paul George, which isn’t any easier. It would not be surprising if Mitchell delivers again, but he’s on the road in his first playoff game against an elite defender.
Ricky Rubio ($5,900): Rubio was dealing with a hamstring injury to end the season. We’ll see if that hinders him at all. This is Rubio’s first trip to the playoffs and there’s no telling how he’s going to perform with this newfound pressure. He really settled into his role in Utah, becoming a scorer who also passed instead of a playmaker who couldn’t shoot. The concern is that Westbrook is locked in defensively, giving Rubio no room to move.
Secondary Scoring
Paul George ($7,700): George had a strong end to the season and if he’s over his shooting struggles, that’s bad news for Utah. He’s got plenty of playoff experience as the No. 1 option and is someone who has raised his game in the playoffs time and time again. If Playoff P is a real person, he’s an excellent option at this salary.
Joe Ingles ($6,100): Mitchell and Rubio get most of the attention, which leads to Ingles getting open shots. He’s a big part of their offense and must be accounted for. Since he’s not much of an ISO player, he can be neutralized a bit in the playoffs. He should be around value at this salary, but proceed with caution.
Carmelo Anthony ($5,300): Anthony struggled in his role all season, but his salary has lowered enough to where he could be a nice addition. He’ll play with a lot of energy and confidence being back in the playoffs. Shooting opportunities were never an issue for Anthony this season, it was just a lot of missed shots. He’s attractive at this salary, but could bite you in a big way.
The Two Bigs
Steven Adams ($5,700): Adams at this salary feels like a steal. He’s going to get big minutes up against Gobert and he’s proven in the past that he can raise his game in the playoffs. Gobert is a tough matchup, but it’s tough envisioning him not getting at least 25 fantasy points. That number puts him at value on Sunday.
Rudy Gobert ($7,000): Gobert was a big reason why the Jazz got as hot as they did to end the season. But shots altered don’t count for fantasy points. He’s still a strong double-double option and the Jazz will certainly need everything they can get from him in Game 1. But Steven Adams has troubled him throughout his career, which is a bit concerning.
Role Players
Utah: Jae Crowder ($4,200) and Derrick Favors ($5,100) will both see big minutes. Crowder may see more minutes due to the matchup and with his lower salary, is the preferred option. Royce O’Neale ($3,600) had a strong finish to the season and will get minutes for his defense.
Oklahoma City: If Corey Brewer ($4,400) plays, he’s could be a big x-factor. His defense, energy, and rim running could be huge against Utah. Jerami Grant ($3,700) made big improvements this season, but I don’t like the matchup in this series. Raymond Felton ($3,200) and Patrick Patterson ($3,000) are two role players with playoff experience who can contribute on a low salary.
Overall Advice
These games could be defensive slogs. But Westbrook is a guaranteed points getter and George has that same ability in him. There are too many unknowns with Utah and you can’t afford big losses if playoff jitters get the best of Mitchell and/or Rubio.