DraftKings NBA Picks April 17: Giannis or A.D.?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks April 17: Giannis or A.D.?
Get used to these unbalanced slates now that the playoffs are here. We have three more Game 2’s going on tonight. The first game between Milwaukee and Boston went to overtime, but the value picks really didn’t play out there. We have a lot of high priced options, but how many can we afford without compromising our lineup too much? Let’s dive on into this!
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Last night the money line was the lowest of the playoffs so far at 265.25 DraftKings points. My lineup failed thanks to Livingston and Justise Winslow.
The winning lineup was also down to 332.5. He built around KD and Aldridge along with Saric and got great value from James Johnson, D-Wade, and Iggy.
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Point Guards:
Best Bets:
Damian Lillard ($9,300): You know that I find it easier to roll with someone when the shots and minutes were there and the shots just didn’t fall. That was the case with Lillard in Game 1. Lillard took 23 shots and played 42 minutes, but he only hit six of those shots. Lillard isn’t one of those guys that is prone to prolonged slumps, so I’m okay with going back to the well tonight. He still picked up 43.25 DraftKings points, so it’s not like he was that far under value.
John Wall ($9,100): If you didn’t have Wall on Saturday, you likely didn’t place. Wall racked up 61.75 DraftKings points against Toronto in Game 1, all while hitting just 6 of 20 shots. Wall may have the highest usage rate outside of LeBron’s kingdom. He looks healthy, so when those shots start falling, he could score in A.D. territory.
Honorable Mention:
Rajon Rondo ($7,100): Rondo did a great job orchestrating the offense in the Pelicans’ Game 1 win. He put up 42.5 DraftKings points in 39 minutes in the process. This looks like a series where Rondo will get a ton of assists, so he has a pretty high floor. That’s all we are really after at this point of the DFS season.
Terry Rozier ($6,900): That’s the Rozier that Boston has been looking for. He was there when Kyrie first went down, but Rozier went into a bit of a funk in late March. Rozier doesn’t have huge upside, but its enough to use him here. He looked pretty good running the offense on Saturday.
Dark Horses:
Delon Wright ($4,500): With VanVleet out, Wright picked up 25 minutes off the bench and put up 32.75 DraftKings points. He was a big part of the scoring off the bench. If VanVleet is out again, I like Wright as a value pick. He may not hit 7-10 from the floor again, but he will still put up some solid stats.
Malcolm Brogdon ($4,300): So much for a minutes limit. Brogdon played 32 minutes in Game 1, and was far more effective than Eric Bledsoe. Brogdon isn’t going to start anytime soon, but if he is still outplaying Bledsoe by halftime of Game 2, I would expect Brogdon to see more minutes than Bledsoe in the second half. At any rate, Brogdon is a solid bargain with the potential for a whole lot more.
My pick: Wall(PG), Brogdon(SG), Wright(G)
Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
Jrue Holiday ($7,700): As expected, Holiday was a strong part of the offense, but with so many others contributing, Holiday isn’t asked to take over the game anymore. That limits his overall upside, but 5x value is still pretty much a given from Holiday. His 20 shots a game aren’t going anywhere, and he is a decent rebounder as well.
Khris Middleton ($7,400): Middleton was a monster in Game 1, putting up 57 DraftKings points in 47 minutes! The Bucks will continue to ride him while he’s hot. Middleton was one of the most consistent players during the regular season that would occasionally sprinkle in a game like this. Expect a good performance from Middleton tonight, but not 57 DraftKings points good.
Honorable Mention:
C.J. McCollum ($6,700): Once again, McCollum struggled to hit value against the Pelicans. He did take 18 shots, so CJ remained active in the offense. For that reason, I would use McCollum over Beal if you are looking for a guard in this range. McCollum got the shots, he just didn’t hit as many of them as we would like.
Jaylen Brown ($6,000): Brown had a nice game in Game 1, putting up 34.5 DraftKings points. That was Brown’s fifth game over 5x value in in his last eight games. Brown is finally starting to come into his own with Marcus Smart still out of the picture. He is a nice mid-range pick tonight.
Dark Horses:
Ian Clark ($3,500): Clark’s ankle looked fine on Saturday. He played 28 minutes and put in a solid 16.75 DraftKings points. Much like most bench players in the playoffs, Clark has little upside, However, he outplayed E’Twuan Moore in both minutes and production in Game 1. That should continue throughout the series.
Jabari Bird ($3,200): Bird is one of those guys that got good minutes down the stretch, and he played so well that Boston gave him good run in Game 1. Bird put up 17.25 DraftKings points in 29 minutes in that game. Expect his court time to remain pretty high since Bird is one of the best defenders that Boston has on the perimeter with Irving and Smart out. That makes Bird a pretty nice value play.
My pick: N/A
Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
Jayson Tatum ($6,300): Brown wasn’t the only youngster that came up big for Boston. Tatum racked up 45 DraftKings points in 44 minutes in Game 1. That makes Tatum a huge value here tonight. SF is the weakest position tonight, though you can still use DeRozan (not recommended), Giannis, or Middleton here if you don’t like any of the other options.
Marcus Morris ($5,800): Morris had the minutes (35) and the shots (20) to make him a great bet to get value. Morris put up 31.25 DraftKings points despite missing on 12 of those 20 shots. There is solid potential here with Morris logging big minutes in this series.
Honorable Mention:
Al-Farouq Aminu ($5,100): Aminu came in under value in Game 1, but he still played pretty well. Whether you play Aminu or not will depend on how much you believe that Evan Turner‘s Game 1 was a fluke. If Turner cools off, Aminu should see more shots. When that happens is anyone’s guess.
Jabari Parker ($5,000): Parker was a huge disappointment in Game 1, playing just 15 minutes and having only eight DraftKings points. Eight! Parker still has a lot of upside, but that is his second dud against the Celtics since his return. There is a chance that Parker doesn’t see nearly enough minutes here to make him worth the while again.
Dark Horses:
Evan Turner ($4,100): Turner has little upside, but he does have a lot to offer at this price. Turner still plays around 30 minutes per game, and put up 24.25 DraftKings points in Game 1. There is good value here, but not much for upside.
C.J. Miles ($3,500): Toronto leaned on the veteran Miles for around 20 minutes again. That will likely be his role in the playoffs, but his 18.5 DraftKings points is still putting us above value. Miles makes a very nice value pick if you are loading up on studs.
My pick: Turner(SF)
Power Forwards:
Best Bets:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,600): This is what everyone was waiting to see out of Giannis in the playoffs. He racked up 67.25 DraftKings points against a sturdy Boston defense. Expect another huge game from Giannis in Game 2. The Bucks wont be able to stay close if he doesn’t.
Nikola Mirotic ($7,600): Mirotic is finally jump-starting this Pelicans offense like I thought he would after they brought him in. Unfortunately, it was too late for us season long players, but it works out very well for DFS. Mirotic has at least 45 DraftKings points in five straight games. He is playing big minutes, and isn’t going to slow down anytime soon.
Honorable Mention:
Serge Ibaka ($5,600): Ibaka was huge in Game 1, putting up 46 DraftKings points. That was his largest DFS output of the season! The chances of that happening against aren’t very good, but it also highlighted just how Washington can’t control him. Expect another strong game from Ibaka, but think mid 30’s instead of mid 40’s.
Dark Horses:
Ed Davis ($3,500): Davis hauled in 13 rebounds in Game 1, so he hit value on rebounds alone! The Blazers need Davis’s rebounding prowess against a larger Pelicans team. Davis only played 20 minutes, so there is a bit of risk here, but if he hauls in 23.75 DraftKings points again at this price, we are ahead of the curve.
Zach Collins ($3,100): Collins has contributed here and there throughout the year. He came up with a solid 21.5 DraftKings points in 22 minutes in Game 1. The Blazers need his size against the Pelicans. Collins proved that he could hold his own, and even score a little. There is decent potential here.
My pick: Ibaka(PF), Davis(UTIL)
Center:
Best Bets:
Anthony Davis ($11,400): As expected, Brow was money in Game 1, putting up 66 DraftKings points in the win in Portland. The Blazers did a decent job on Davis, but not enough to shy me away from playing him. I trust Davis to repeat his performance more than anyone else going tonight.
Al Horford ($7,300): Horford dominated the Bucks on the inside, racking up 56.5 DraftKings points. That was arguably Horford’s best game of the season when the Celtics really needed it. I don’t know that Horford has a game like that again, but I view 5x value as his floor here. The Bucks have no answer for him in the middle.
Honorable Mention:
Jusuf Nurkic ($7,000): The Blazers’ answer to Davis was to throw Nurkic at him and hope for the best. It wasn’t a horrible strategy, but it also didn’t net Portland a win. Nurkic had a solid night, but with Horford just $300 more, find the cash for Horford. He is going to be a lot better than Nurkic.
Jonas Valanciunas ($5,700): The huge night from Ibaka didn’t take much of anything away from Valanciunas. Valanciunas had a solid 24.75 DraftKings points in 23 minutes against Washington. There isn’t a ton of upside here, but Valanciunas should have another solid game.
Dark Horse:
John Henson ($4,600): Henson put together a solid night in Game 1 with 26.5 DraftKings points. That was mostly because Henson played a season high 37 minutes. The best chance that the Bucks have of slowing down Boston in the middle is to keep Henson in there. It didn’t really work, but there is no plan B. Expect Henson’s minutes to be high throughout the series. His production should tick upward as a result.
My pick: Davis(C), Horford(F)
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