FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups: Tuesday April 17
By Matt Rogers
Welcome back to the FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups column. This is the Tuesday, April 17th 2018 edition. We’re a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you build a DFS MLB optimal lineup for each slate.
The Monday night Mets focus worked out well, but it wasn’t the only great play of the night, and there was better value on the board for FanDuel MLB. Jacob deGrom ($9,400) provided 53 points for our lineup, in line with expectations. But there were cheaper pitching options like Blake Snell ($7,100) who saved you $2.3K and also provided 53 FanDuel MLB points. So while we were happy with the result, we could have done better.
The Mets offensive stack worked well, with Asdrubel Cabrera ($3,900) piling up over 37 FanDuel MLB points with a low 15-25% ownership in cash games. Brandon Nimmo ($2,800) was more well-owned and had a solid 12.2 points, just like Michael Conforto ($4,00). But for some reason many players faded Todd Frazier ($4,000) in the cleanup spot, who provided another 16 points.
As the lineups posted, and with Cesar Hernandez out of the Phillies lineup, we realized the Philly stack was no longer viable. We also had a postponement issue with the Blue Jays, odd for a domed stadium in Toronto. The best summary of the night was Bryce Harper snapping his bat while also somehow putting the ball over the fence for a home run. Everything defied odds yesterday.
But, those problems presented some solutions, like stacking some cheap Brewers and Rays offensive players. By the end of the night, most of our lineups piled up a modest 150+ points. In some cash games we did well, but for GPP, we fell short.
For FanDuel MLB on Tuesday night, we’re fading the ‘natural double-header’ in Toronto and avoiding the two other games prior to 7pm ET. So with a focus solely on the ‘Main’ slate, again today, we have 13 games, and 26 teams, to pick through for our lineups.
Before we get there, a reminder to never take a DFS MLB optimal lineup as ‘bible’ for your personal lineup each day. Use the suggestions as guidance. Also, make sure you follow final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR or me @mattymcmatt17 look for late breaking lineup news.
Weather Note: The major spring storm has finally exited off the eastern cost of the US by Tuesday. So we fortunately do not have any weather-related delays or postponements to consider. However, as we’ve learned from the debacles in Kansas City and Toronto, anything is still possible. Also, a good portion of the eastern and middle part of the country is very cold, and that will have a positive impact on pitching, and negative impact on hitting. So we must keep that in mind for our offensive stacks. So with weather-related considerations addressed, let’s get to the top pitching options…
FanDuel MLB: Top Pitcher Main Slate
Picking a top pitcher tonight is difficult. Frankly, like last night, you could go with multiple options at varying salaries and yield similar result. So, we’re mostly focused on better value, but we don’t want to pay down too far considering the risk.
Corey Kluber ($11,400) is the top consistently dominate pitcher on the board, and is the most expensive for a reason. Unlike Shohei Ohtani ($10,500), who’s only pitched in two major league games, we’ve seen Kluber develop an incredible 34% K-rate with a low 4.7% walk rate.
Corey has a high 83.1% LOB and low 0.85 WHIP. Most of Kluber’s numbers resemble someone like Max Scherzer, but with less fan-fair. Paying up for Kluber is worth it for cash games, but we still think there are other great, and more value-based, options.
Ohtani versus David Price ($8,000) in Los Angels is going to be the hot-ticket item of the day for Major League Baseball. This could be a low-scoring affair, or we could see bats explode against the two great pitchers. Regardless, we’re staying away for two reasons. The Angels and Red Sox bats have been hot to start the season, and the interest level in this game is high leading to higher ownership than necessary.
That leaves us with two great pitching options left, which we think have better value. Patrick Corbin ($9,500) has a favorable match up at home in Arizona. And Alex Wood ($8,400) follows Ryu’s high K-rate, from yesterday’s game, today in San Diego. Either one of these plays likely gives you better value than Kluber, and lower ownership than Ohtani or Price.
Corbin is pitching well above his 23.1% K-rate since early last season. Over three starts, Patrick is averaging almost 50 FanDuel MLB points-per-game, due mostly to his 29 strikeouts in just 17.1 innings. In San Francisco, Patrick gave up seven hitters to the base-path, and three runs. But he still had nine K’s in just 5.1 innings. Corbin has a history of pitching better in Arizona.
Ryu, like Wood, is a solid pitcher with lower K-rate than most dominate pitchers. He fanned nine Padres in San Diego last night, while giving up only three hits and two earned runs in six innings. Wood has a better WHIP than Ryu, and could last more than six innings with the potential for five to ten strikeouts. Either pitcher could land 50+ FanDuel MLB points tonight.
FanDuel MLB: Top Hitting Stacks Main Slate
The obvious, and very likely chalky, offensive stack for tonight is right-handed Astros bats against Mariners left-handed starting pitcher Ariel Miranda. Since early last season, Miranda has given up more than two home runs per nine innings, the majority to right-handed hitters. Ariel also has a nearly 10% walk rate and only marginally good 20% K-rate. So if you can afford it, stacking the expensive Astros bats is worth it in cash games, but not the way to go for GPP.
To avoid heavy lineup ownership, even in cash plays, we prefer a more contrarian approach to the offensive stacks tonight. Before we get to the next couple of obvious stacks, we need to point out the match up the Oakland Athletics have tonight. In Oakland, the A’s will face White Sox righty Miguel Gonzalez.
In two starts this season, Gonzalez has only lasted a total of 9.1 innings, has a high 2.22 WHIP, only has four K’s, and a horrendous 8.68 ERA. Since early last season, Miguel has given up almost 1.4 home runs per nine innings, and still has a high WHIP of 1.46. So in decent weather, we’re stacking four A’s in our offensive lineup, likely including guys like Jed Lowrie ($3,800), high early season WAR Matt Chapman ($4,200), Marcus Semien ($3,500), and dirt-cheap Stephen Piscotty ($2,500).
With the A’s bats locked into our lineup, we’re looking at two more obvious stacks tonight, the Rays and the Dodgers. Of the two, the Dodgers bats are more expensive, but you can still grab value plays like Yasiel Puig ($3,200) in the outfield against Bryan Mitchell on the mound in San Diego.
Meanwhile, the Rays have a horrendous Matt Moore on the mound for the Rangers, in Tampa. Also, third and fourth hitters like Carlos Gomez ($2,700) and C.J. Cron ($2,800) are incredibly cheap in a great match up tonight. In fact, if you’re paying up for Kluber or Corbin at pitcher, stacking the Rays and A’s is fairly easy to do, with likely low ownership tonight.
FanDuel MLB: Summary and Example Lineup
We’re fading the Blue Jays and other games prior to the 7pm start of the primary 13 games today. So with a focus only on the Main FanDuel MLB slate, we still have plenty of very good pitching options to pick through. Of the top options, we love Kluber, Corbin, and Wood the most. If you can afford them, Kluber or Corbin are the top two, but more expensive than Wood.
The Astros are expensive, but they’re a great option with the likelihood of several home runs from the right-side of the plate tonight. However, we prefer to fade the Astros bats, and focus on the Dodgers and Rays, which should also be on many FanDuel MLB players’ radar. The surprise value focus of the night will be the A’s bats in Oakland, where we think they have a great match up with very low ownership.
With that summary in mind, here’s a look at the sample lineup for the Main FanDuel MLB slate on Tuesday, April 17th:
FanDuel MLB MAIN Slate Sample Lineup:
P Patrick Corbin ($9,500)
C/1B C.J. Cron ($2,800)
2B Jed Lowrie ($3,800)
3B Matt Chapman ($4,200)
SS Marcus Semien ($3,500)
OF Yasiel Puig ($3,200)
OF Stephen Piscotty ($2,500)
OF Matt Kemp ($2,700)
UTIL Carlos Gomez ($2,700)
Remaining Salary: $100
Note: This is a recommended lineup after discussing our top options for today. You should use this as a guide, and provide your own input when building FanDuel NHL lineups. We are not telling you, or selling you, to use this lineup.
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all your DFS news and analysis across MLB, NBA, NHL, and EPL this spring!