MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Wednesday April 18

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

Tuesday’s MLB DFS slate was one dominated by pitching and sporadic offensive bursts throughout the league as four pitchers – Patrick Corbin, Lance McCullers Jr., Johnny Cueto and Trevor Cahill were among the top five scorers but all fell behind Mookie Betts slate leading night with 3 HR’s against the Angels. The A’s stack was popular 1-6 but their 10 run night came almost entirely from their 7-9 hitters who drove in 9 runs between them, as a great example of pivoting within the same stack to a lower owned bottom of the order roster approach.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.

If you are looking to try out a new DFS site, head on over to FantasyDraft and enter my referral code for 10% rake back on your entries.

As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

MLB DFS – Early Slate Pitching

After back to back night’s of watching Trevor Cahill (7 IP, 8K’s and 31 FP) and Daniel Mengden (8 IP, 6K’s and 27.8 FP) it would seem like on an ugly slate for pitching that Andrew Triggs ($16.2K) may be our best pitching option as a massive -200 home favorite against the White Sox. Triggs so far this year has started three games and is sporting a 26% K rate and now takes on a Chicago team that has the 7th highest K rate versus RHP this season at just over 25%.

Digging into Triggs a bit more on FanGraphs I came across this article which highlights how low of a percentage he gets batters to swing and in fact his 41.5% rate so far this season would put him among the 10 lowest pitchers in all of baseball in that metric. Triggs therefore is focused more on deception, looking to get swings and misses outside the zone with his arsenal that is primarily a sinker/slider to get batters to chase which may feel a bit gimmicky but when you really dig in further you see a pitcher who is getting a higher than average swing and miss rate at pitches outside the zone ( O Swing %) and the batters are making less than league average contact outside the zone ( O contact %).

What really stands out to me the last two games is that he has a 58% and 75% GB rate with a 28% and 18% hard contact rate and that is really a great indicator to me that hitters are struggling to square up the ball against him and by getting them to chase pitches outside the zone there is some great strikeout upside against this right-handed heavy White Sox team.

J.A. Happ ($18.9K) is the same -200 home favorite as our boy Triggs and with a 33% K rate so far this season and a match-up against a Royals team striking out at nearly a 26% clip versus LHP (11th highest mark in MLB), this looks to be a great spot to lock in Happ today. Happ has seen his swinging strike rate spike to 15% so far this year after only 9% last season and that in large part is due to match-ups with the White Sox and Orioles who strike out at the 1st and 3rd most in all of baseball against LHP so take the spike with a grain of salt.

Although the Royals are not striking out at exactly the same clip as Baltimore or Chicago, this team is still struggling to make contact against lefties and with a slate low 3.6 run total this looks to be a great spot not only for run prevention (cash game mindset) but Happ has flashed the K upside to make him viable in GPP’s.

One note – the Cubs/Cardinals game has some interesting pitchers in Jon Lester and Luke Weaver but there looks to be big time weather concerns that are making many believe this game will not play so keep that in mind as you start building your early rosters.

MLB DFS – Early Slate Hitting

Another slate and another day I am going right back to a Oakland A’s stack as they have put up 8 and 10 runs the last two days and will take on Carson Fulmer today, a pitcher with the highest SIERA (5.38) on the slate and a walk rate of 14% which nearly matches his 18% K rate (yikes).

Here is the one thing with Fulmer though – through his early career he has done a good job of limiting hard contact (less than 30% to both sides of the plate) and we have seen it this year in the fact that even though he has given up 6 ER in 9.2 IP, there has yet to be a home run. What kills him is the walks (7 in those 9.2 IP) and his career 36% ground ball rate doesn’t help him get out of many jams with double plays so this is a spot where the A’s offense, which is projected for the most runs on the slate at 4.83 is more of a stack or nothing for me.

What you are really banking on here with Oakland is a string of plays – walks, hits, run – similar to what we saw last night where they scored 10 runs on 13 hits. Of those 13 hits, we had only 2 doubles and one home run so this was more of a station to station stack and I would approach today much the same way. Matt Joyce ($6.6K), Matt Chapman ($8.1K), Jed Lowrie ($7.4K), Khris Davis ($9.4K) and Matt Olson ($8.3K) are my favorite plays here and keep an eye on the starting line-up as you could lock in the 8-9 hitters and do a wrap around stack that would be a bit lower owned to differentiate yourself in GPP’s.

Although the sample size is small on Tyler Mahle, his numbers versus LHB do not look so hot as he has surrendered 10 runs, 9 walks and 3 HR’s in 12.2 IP to lefties which equates to a 2.13 HR/9 rate and over 41% hard contact rate to lefties. When you consider the duo of Eric Thames ($8.2K) and Travis Shaw ($7.5K) on the other side of this match-up you have a prime mini-stack to build around in Miller Park which is the best park for LH power on the entire slate.

MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:

The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own! 

More from FanSided

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• NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
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• MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions
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SP: Andrew Triggs ($16.2K)

SP: J.A. Happ ($18.9K)

IF: Eric Thames ($8.2K)

IF: Matt Chapman ($8.1K)

IF: Jed Lowrie ($7.4K)

OF: Khris Davis ($9.4K)

OF: Matt Joyce ($6.6K)

OF: Matt Olson ($8.3K)

Util: Travis Shaw ($7.5K)

Util: Justin Smoak ($9.2K)

Slate Overview: The Early Slate lacks any real must have pitching options but it seems clear to me that Triggs and Happ, both -200 home favorites have both the floor for cash games and the K upside in their match-ups to make them GPP building blocks. The A’s bats are going to be my core build again today but this is an all-in stack or nothing spot for me as Fulmer’s metrics show him as someone who will give up walks/hits in bunches as opposed to surrendering a few long balls to some one-off plays.

MLB DFS – Main Slate Pitching

After sorting through some mediocre pitching options on the Early Slate, the Main Slate is a bit overwhelming as we have a handful of aces to choose from including Gerrit Cole, Jose Berrios, Carlos Carrasco and Robbie Ray all available to us. Let’s start here – you need to be paying up for SP on this slate, on one pitcher sites for sure and maybe even paying up for both SP’s on two pitcher sites. We have elite K upside in all four of these spots and without any “must have” offenses, there is merit to locking in two top arms here and simply moving on.

Robbie Ray ($19.7K) is my favorite arm on this slate as his 32.7% K rate and 14.1% swinging strike rate are the top metrics over the last two years of any arm available to us today but I will say, the -138 line on him seems really light considering this game is at home versus the Giants. it is possible Vegas is looking at his last outing in San Francisco where he only struck out 6 batters in 4.2 IP and gave up 3 ER and it is also possible game log watchers see that and opt to move away.

As usual the issue with Ray is hard contact as he has given up 46%, 50% and 50% hard contact rates in his first three outings this season so there is always some risk with him but we just saw the upside that is available in this match-up with Patrick Corbin who threw a complete game shutout, striking out 8 Giants in the process and my hope is that Ray’s game log scares some people away from him tonight.

Jose Berrios ($21.2K) pitching in his native Puerto Rico tonight against the Indians is the ultimate narrative and I expect Berrios to be amped up tonight in front of this crowd. Berrios has already show us he has slate changing upside with two games this season of 38+ fantasy points including an 11 K outing his last time out against the White Sox. The Indians strike out at a 24% clip against RHP which is 13th in MLB so this is not an elite match-up but also one that is beatable.

My gut feeling early on is the Berrios narrative takes over today and with a solid Indians line-up and an elite pitcher on the other side of this game in Carlos Carrasco, I actually think a fade could be warranted. With so many elite pitchers tonight, I am going to weigh ownership more so than usual as I would rather pivot to the lower owned of this foursome as I think any of them could realistically be the top arm on the slate.

Gerrit Cole ($22.8K) might be unfadeable right now – I cannot believe I am typing that but how can you argue with the results. Cole has racked up 11, 11 and 14 K’s and has an absurd 46.8% K rate which is the highest in baseball by a WIDE margin.

The biggest reason I am leaning towards Cole and Ray right now is that unlike Carrasco/Berrios, they do not have an elite arm staring at them from the other side of the match-up and the fact that Arizona and Houston have two of the highest implied team totals would seem to put Cole and Ray in better positions for the win.

Listen, I cannot argue any of the four top arms today – I could make the case for all of them – but I think you need to limit your SP decisions to this group and this group only and I would make a strong case for locking in two of the four on FantasyDraft before moving to your lineup.

MLB DFS – Main Slate Hitting:

With so many elite arms on the hill, there are not shockingly fewer offensive spots to choose from when building our roster. The best pure hitting spot on the board may be in Atlanta with 75 degree temperatures and 10-12 MPH winds blowing out in the best park for lefty power on the Main Slate with a RHP in Vince Velasquez on the hill who got touched up for 9 hits and 7 runs (4 earned) in only 2.2 IP in Atlanta in his Opening Day start for the Phils. Freddie Freeman ($10.2K) and Ozzie Albies ($8.5K) are my top plays here and what I love about the stack is that the rest of it is really cheap to build as you can lock in Nick Markakis ($6.4K) and Ender Inciarte ($6.4K) for reasonable prices to round out a nice 1-4 stack here.

The Mets are doing a great job of snapping us fans back to reality with two straight horrible games against the Nationals but with temperatures rising in NY and Tanner Roark on the hill – the Mets lefty power is firmly in play for me today. Roark gave up 1.56 HR/9 and a 31 % HC rate to LHB last season and gave up 5 ER and 2 HR’s to Cabrera/Gonzalez when these teams faced off in Washington last week. Asdrubal Cabrera ($7.5K) continues to be red-hot at the plate and if Brandon Nimmo ($5.7K) is back in the lead-off spot for the Mets with a  right-hander on the hill they could make for a cost-effective mini-stack here tonight.

The Angels bats were shut down last night but with Rick Porcello on the hill tonight, I want to grab some of the bottom of the order lefty-power including Kole Calhoun ($6.5K) and Luis Valbuena ($6.3K) as Porcello gave up a 1.7 HR/9 and 41% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters last season. For those who love BvP, Calhoun has owned Porcello, going 7 for 19 with 2 HR’s so using him as a one-off play here to save salary makes a ton of sense.

MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:

The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own! 

More from FanSided

• USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
• NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
• Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
• MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions
• Caesars, BetMGM and PointsBet Promo Codes Give $1,850 Bonus for ANY World Cup or MLB Game!

SP: Robbie Ray ($19.7K)

SP: Gerrit Cole ($22.8K)

IF: Freddie Freeman ($10.2K)

IF: Ozzie Albies ($8.5K)

IF: Asdrubal Cabrera ($7.5K)

OF: Brandon Nimmo ($5.7K)

OF: Nick Markakis ($6.4K)

OF: Ender Inciarte ($6.4K)

Util: Kole Calhoun ($6.5K)

Util: Luis Valbuena ($6.3K)

Slate Overview – PITCHING PITCHING AND MORE PITCHING. That is the name of the Main Slate and my goal will be to lock in 2 of the top 4 arms tonight in high K match-ups while finding a few value bats to make my roster build work. Stack wise I love the Braves match-up against Velasquez and outside of Freeman/Albies the rest of the stack is really quite cost-effective. With so many good arms and not a ton of must have offenses, this looks like a good night to mix and match and go with 2-3 man mini-stacks rather than plant your flag with one offense and a few one-offs. Good luck all!

Next: DraftKings MLB Picks

Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!