DraftKings NBA Picks April 19: Did Portland figure out the Brow?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks April 19: Did Portland figure out the Brow?
Get used to these unbalanced slates now that the playoffs are here. We have three big Game 3’s going on tonight. We have several stars on the slate here, so how do we attack this? The value has been in this playoff grouping, and we will need it with A.D., KD, and Simmons coming it at five figures.
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Last night the money line was up a bit to 254.75. My lineup missed thanks to Crowder and Teague.
The winning lineup was way up to 346. They built around LeBron and CP3 and got nice value out of Collison and the Utah frontcourt.
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Point Guards:
Best Bets:
Ben Simmons ($10,200): Simmons has 102.5 DraftKings points in the first two games of this series. If the Heat were going to slow him down, it likely would have happened by now. With Joel Embiid generously listed as doubtful, it appears as though Simmons will have the show to himself in a pivotal Game 3. If Philly loses this game, expect Embiid to play in Game 4 no matter what.
Damian Lillard ($8,900): The Blazers dropped two at home to Brow and the Pelicans. Lillard has been solid in both games, but he needs to step up and carry this team. No one else is. I am expecting some sort of crazy game here from Lillard to stave of elimination, which could make him a great value at this price. However, I have nothing to base this on. It’s just a feeling.
Honorable Mention:
Rajon Rondo ($7,400): Rondo has actually put up more DraftKings points in the first two games of this series than Lillard. Rondo has checked in with 84 DraftKings points over the two games. He has had two excellent all around games, scoring 22 points, hauling in 18 boards, and dishing out 26 assists. Will all due respect to A.D., Rondo has been the MVP of this series so far. Ride him at this discounted price!
Dwyane Wade ($5,400): Game 2 was a vintage Wade performance. Wade torched the Sixers for 43.75 DraftKings points, hitting 11-16 from the field. The only thing that wasn’t vintage was his minutes. Wade did all of that damage in just 26 minutes! Wade is going to play a big part in this series, which makes him a strong value play again. Just don’t expect outbursts like this to become the norm.
Dark Horses:
Andre Iguodala ($4,800): Iggy put together an impressive game starting at the point in Game 2. Iguodala racked up 35.25 DraftKings points. Expect more of the same with Stephen Curry likely out for the rest of this series, which looks like it will only be one game anyway. Enjoy the last night of huge value from Iguodala! This wont be here when Curry returns.
Patty Mills ($4,300): The Spurs looked a whole lot better in Game 2 with Mills handling most of the point duties. Dejounte Murray played just ten minutes and Parker played just six. Mills appears to be the value guard of choice as the series heads to San Antonio.
My pick: Rondo(PG), Iguodala(G)
Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
Jrue Holiday ($7,900): Holiday was solid in Game 1, but his performance in Game 2 is really what helped the Pelicans take a 2-0 lead. Holiday racked up 52.75 DraftKings points in that game. Not only are the Portland guards struggling offensively, but they aren’t doing much to stop the Pelicans on D either. Holiday is a very nice play at this price. We know the floor is solid, and the upside is very real.
Klay Thompson ($6,800): Thompson has picked up a lot of the scoring load in the playoffs. Thompson has 58 points over the first two games, translating into 77 DraftKings points. There is good potential for Thompson here again. The Spurs haven’t had an answer for him yet.
Honorable Mention:
C.J. McCollum ($6,700): My thoughts on CJ were right. He still didn’t shoot well from the floor, but he was enough better that he hit value in Game 2. McCollum is still going to take a lot of shots. If they start going in, he could approach 6x value, but it’s hard to rely on that since McCollum hasn’t hit more than 45% from the field since March 28th.
J.J. Redick ($5,200): Redick continues to provide a solid dose of scoring from the outside. He wasn’t nearly as proficient from the field in Game 2, which resulted in the lower total score. Still, Redick was right around 5x value. he has a solid floor, and can put up big numbers in any given game with the amount of shots he gets.
Dark Horses:
Marco Belinelli ($5,000): Belinelli continues to put up numbers that are nearly identical to Redick in less minutes. I’m not opposed to playing them both right now with the way this series is playing out. However, Redick still has more upside since he is starting, and at only $200 more, the price difference doesn’t make it a huge advantage to use Belinelli here.
Manu Ginobili ($4,100): Manu has been leading from the floor while Parker has been doing it from the bench. Ginobili has 40.75 DraftKings points over the first two games, which puts him right at 5x value. If the Warriors are running off with this game again, which is a distinct possibility, I think we could see Pop run all the veterans late in the game. That could mean more minutes for Parker and Ginobili in particular.
My pick: Holiday(SG)
Small Forwards:
Best Bet:
Kevin Durant ($10,300): Durant’s price is more manageable here. He has 98 DraftKings points over the first two games of this series, so we pretty much know what to expect from Durant here. He is going to be right around 5x value, but he isn’t shouldering the load by himself anymore. Klay is helping, and so is Draymond. I don’t see big upside for Durant, so he is likely better left for cash games.
Honorable Mention:
Robert Covington ($5,600): Covington continues to be a solid play for the Sixers here. However, the amount of talent on this team is severely limiting the upside. I would only use Covington in cash games at this point. He isn’t putting together any big games with consistency.
Josh Richardson ($5,500): After struggling in Game 1, Richardson came out and had a game like we expect from him in Game 2. If Richardson can put together another 30 DraftKings point effort, I don’t think any of us will be disappointed. Especially when you consider the lack of depth at this position.
Dark Horses:
Rudy Gay ($5,100): Word came out after lineup lock that Gay would start Game 2. Those of us who used him were waiting for a huge line from him, but it was almost identical to what he did in Game 1. The team as a whole played better, but Gay didn’t necessarily have a better game. That said, he still hit 5.5x value for the second time in the series. It wasn’t a total loss.
Mo Harkless ($4,200): The injury to Evan Turner in this game forced Portland to use Harkless more than they were initially planning on. Harkless responded with a nice game, putting up 19.25 DraftKings points in his 27 minutes. Harkless was just starting to get going when he went down in late March. Portland seemed to work better with him in there, so I expect pretty good minutes from Harkless in a win or else game.
My pick: N/A
Power Forwards:
Best Bets:
LaMarcus Aldridge ($9,400): Aldridge rebounded from a catastrophic Game 1 to put up a nice stat line in Game 2. LMA put up 54 DraftKings points, but the Spurs still lost by 15. I expect Aldridge to put forth another great effort here, but it still may not be enough.
Nikola Mirotic ($7,000): Mirotic is still too cheap for what he has been doing on the court. Mirotic had his worst game since April 1st, but still put up 32.5 DraftKings points. Draymond came crashing back to earth in Game 2, which is more indicative of where his stat line will wind up. Mirotic has far more upside, and is $500 cheaper.
Honorable Mention:
Dario Saric ($6,600): Saric came up big in the Game 2 loss. He racked up 47.75 DraftKings points despite shooting just 8-21 from the floor. Saric is going to be a huge part of the offense yet again with Embiid not well enough to return. Saric looks very underpriced here. He has hit value at this price in both games of the series so far.
Ersan Ilyasova ($5,800): There has been some speculation that Ilyasova should remain in the lineup at SF even when Embiid returns because he has played so well in the series. Ilyasova has been huge with Embiid out. He has 70.75 DraftKings points in the first two games of this series. His versatility makes him invaluable to the Philly frontcourt right now. Expect Ilyasova to keep playing a healthy amount of minutes.
Dark Horses:
James Johnson ($5,700): As Johnson went, so went the Heat in Game 2. Johnson contributed across the board in the Game 2 win, finishing with 41.75 DraftKings points. This is about the ceiling of his ability, and Game 1 represented the floor. Expect to see Johnson somewhere in between the two, which makes him at worst a 5x value.
Al-Farouq Aminu ($5,300): Ed Davis, the bargain darling in Game 1, struggled in Game 2. Aminu picked up the slack, racking up 37.25 DraftKings points. That was the first double double for Aminu since April 1st, so this was a welcome sight for the Blazers. They are going to need Aminu to come up big against to stay alive in this series.
My pick: Saric(SF), Ilyasova(F), Mirotic(PF)
Center:
Best Bet:
Anthony Davis ($10,900): The Blazers threw Collins and Aminu at Davis more in Game 2. That seemed to work better than Ed Davis. Brow still put up a solid 47.25 DraftKings points, but the Blazers did a lot to frustrate him. It was all for naught as Lillard still couldn’t get going and Jrue Holiday lit them up from the perimeter. Davis is still a nice cornerstone for a roster, but Portland may have figured something out here.
Honorable Mention:
Kelly Olynyk ($6,100): Olynyk followed up a huge Game 1 with a quiet first half, but his big second half helped tie the series. Olynyk still ended up with 30.75 DraftKings points, giving him 71.5 DraftKings points in the first two games of the series. You know who one of the best value plays out there is.
Pau Gasol ($4,500): Pau put up 21.5 DraftKings points in Game 2. That still leaves something to be desired, but when he is in there, he plays well. The Spurs are going to have to pull out all the stops here, and I would have to think that includes turning Pau loose.
Dark Horses:
Zach Collins ($3,600): Collins had another solid value game in Game 2. That leaves him with 39.75 DraftKings points over the first two games. Collins is still one of my favorite ways to save money, but he does lack upside. Considering that he outplayed Ed Davis though, Collins could see a few more minutes if he is effective against Brow again. Collins moves up to must play status if Nurkic is out for Game 3. We may not know before the lineups lock though considering the Blazers are being tight lipped about the injury.
Zaza Pachulia ($2,800): Javale McGee could miss Game 3. If he does, that could mean more run for Zaza. Pachulia has 29 DraftKings points over the first two games, which puts him right at 5x value. He is a suitable way to save money at low ownership.
My pick: Olynyk(C), Collins(UTIL)
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