DraftKings NBA Picks April 20: Ride LeBron to more cash!
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks April 20: Ride LeBron to more cash!
Get used to these unbalanced slates now that the playoffs are here. We have three big Game 3’s going on tonight. We have several stars on the slate here, so how do we attack this? Giannis and LeBron are on the same slate again. Should we use one or both?
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Last night the money line held steadily around the 5x value mark with 249.25 DraftKings points. My lineup missed due to taking a flier on Whiteside.
The winning lineup was only 316.25. We have all hit that at some point, right? He built around Embiid, Mirotic, and Rondo and got good value from Belinelli, Dario Saric, and Dragic.
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Point Guards:
Best Bets:
John Wall ($9,300): Wall has done everything in his power to keep the Wizards in this, but it hasn’t been enough. Wall only played 32 minutes in a Game 2 that got out of hand for a while. Wall still hit value in only 32 minutes, and you can bet that Wall will see a lot more than that facing a 3-0 hole.
Kyle Lowry ($7,500): After a quiet Game 1, Lowry went off for 42.25 DraftKings points in Game 2. Even though his shot wasn’t falling, Lowry contributed across the board. Game 1 seems to be the outlier. Lowry has at least five rebounds in all but one other game out of the last seven.
Honorable Mention:
Terry Rozier ($7,100): Rozier has been a steady hand for Boston so far in this series. He has 80.75 DraftKings points over the two games, which makes Rozier is strong mid level play. This has been a closely contended series even though Boston is up 2-0. Expect continued production from Rozier in Game 3.
Darren Collison ($5,400): Collison was a strong value play again, performing even better in Game 2 than in Game 1. Indiana is putting up more of a fight than many thought they would, and Collison is a big reason for that. Continue to ride this value. It may not be there come round 2.
Dark Horses:
Malcolm Brogdon ($4,800): Brogdon saw reduced minutes in Game 2 because Bledsoe played much better. The game also got away from the Bucks late in the game, so Brogdon wasn’t nearly as effective. That can always happen again, but facing elimination, I expect Brogdon to play a larger part in Game 3 than Game 2. That makes him a decent value play here.
Delon Wright ($4,500): Fred VanVleet played just three minutes in Game 2. Partially because he likely isn’t back to full speed, but mostly because of the performance of Wright. Wright had another huge game for the Raptors off the bench. That is 60 DraftKings points in 52 minutes over two games for Wright. He is one of the best bargains out there.
My pick: Wright(PG)
Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
Victor Oladipo ($8,800): Do I trust Oladipo? Not really. He had a huge game in Game 1, and an average game in Game 2. I think his output will be somewhere in between for Game 3. That may put Oladipo in the range that he needs to be. I just don’t know that we can count on it. When it comes down to it though, I trust DeRozan a little more.
DeMar DeRozan ($7,800): DeRozan had his best game in April in Game 2. DeRozan put up 49.75 DraftKings points on the Wizards. It seems as though DeRozan has found his shot again. If that’s the case, the Wizards are in a heap of trouble. Remember how hot DeRozan was at the beginning of the year? We know what he is capable of.
Honorable Mention:
Jaylen Brown ($6,500): Brown has been huge in the first two games of this series. Brown has 74.25 DraftKings points in the first two games of this series. Milwaukee hasn’t been able to slow Brown down much at all. There is good upside and a high floor, which makes Brown a strong GPP play.
Dark Horses:
Kelly Oubre ($4,300): Oubre provided a nice game line, but a lot of that had to do with the lopsided nature of this game for a while. Oubre and crew are the ones that made this game manageable again. Will that mean more run for some bench players in Game 3? We don’t really know, so there is risk involved here.
Kyle Korver ($4,000): The Cavs put Korver into the starting lineup so they had a threat from the outside. It worked like a charm. The Cavs spaced the floor better and won Game 2. Expect Korver to draw the start in Game 3, which makes him a great bargain play. Korver is going to be at least 50% owned, but you can’t fade a guy who is going to get you at least 7x value.
My pick: Brown(SG), Korver(G)
Small Forwards:
Best Bet:
LeBron James ($11,800): As expected, the King dominated Game 2 en route to 73.5 DraftKings points. There is no reason to fade LeBron here. He has owned the Pacers in the first two games, and did the same in the regular season. Why would we expect any different in Game 3?
Honorable Mention:
Marcus Morris ($5,700): Jayson Tatum struggled in Game 2, so Morris picked up a lot of the slack. Morris has had two solid but unspectacular games in the playoffs so far. Unspectacular isn’t always a bad thing. Morris has still hit value in both games, making him a solid play in any format.
Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,200): Bogdanovic took 17 shots in the Game 1 win and just six shots in the Game 2 loss. It’s not because Bogdanovic wasn’t hitting shots either. He made three of the six. Indiana needs Bogdanovic to keep the scoring up to have any chance at the upset, so I expect to see him closer to the Game 1 numbers than Game 2.
Dark Horses:
C.J. Miles ($3,700): Miles continues to play well with the second unit for Toronto. He put up 22 DraftKings points in Game 2 after a solid performance in Game 1. Miles is one of the safer value plays out there in this range. He has very little upside, but I’m not going to complain about 18-25 points for this price.
OG Anunoby ($3,400): Anunoby continues to start for the Raptors, but much like it was during the regular season, the production has been spotty. Still, Anunoby has hit value in both games of the series with his price this low. You can do worse if you need to cut this much salary.
My pick: James(SF), Miles(F)
Power Forwards:
Best Bet:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,600): Giannis wasn’t quite as good in Game 2, but he still hit value. He will have to carry the Bucks if they have any shot of pulling the upset. Giannis has done a great job of keeping his team close for the most part in this series, so I don’t see any production drop coming any time soon. He has proven that he will stay in the 50’s even against Boston.
Honorable Mention:
Al Horford ($7,200): Horford put up solid numbers in Game 2, but he didn’t dominate the Bucks like he did in Game 1. The Celtics didn’t need to lean on Horford as much in Game 2, but he is always the capable fallback option if the team needs a boost. Horford remains a strong play tonight as the Celtics try to take a series changing lead.
Serge Ibaka ($6,000): Yeah, I know that some who played Ibaka on Tuesday were disappointed. Why? He still hit 5x value for the price. He was still involved in the offense. I don’t see any reason to move off of Ibaka here. He may not have the upside that he showed in Game 1, but Ibaka should still be a solid addition to the lineup and we know that he has the potential for another outburst like Game 1.
Dark Horse:
Mike Scott ($3,800): Scott was huge in Game 2, putting up 28.5 DraftKings points. Scott was relatively quiet in Game 1, but he still posted a solid line. Morris was outplayed by Scott in Game 2, due mostly to his efficient shooting from the floor. Scott is 14-20 from the floor in the series. Expect his court time to stay stable, if not increase. That makes Scott a strong value play here.
My pick: Antetokounmpo(PF), Scott(UTIL)
Center:
Best Bet:
Jonas Valanciunas ($5,900): Ibaka was the aggressor in Game 1. Jonas was in Game 2. It remains to be seen who will take charge in Game 3, but at any rate, Valanciunas has at least 24 DraftKings points in six straight games. His floor makes him an attractive option again.
Honorable Mention:
Myles Turner ($5,600): Turner had another solid game in Game 2, putting up 23.25 DraftKings points. Many were off Turner after his horrid April heading into the playoffs, but this is one of his better stretches of the season right now. Turner has decent potential against a Cleveland team that routinely has problems defending the interior.
John Henson ($4,900): Henson has done very well for the price so far in the series. Perhaps more importantly, Henson’s numbers were almost identical in Game 1 and Game 2. You are certain to get about 5.5x value tonight from Henson. That’s good enough for me!
Dark Horses:
Greg Monroe ($4,600): Monroe had a solid Game 2 after a Game 1 in which he only played ten minutes. Monroe’s strong run down the stretch apparently doesn’t mean anything to the Celtics, who have reverted back to the rotation the way it was at the end of March. Playing time could be hard to come by for Monroe, but he played well when he is in there.
Aron Baynes ($3,500): Baynes put up a strong line in Game 2 after being a non-factor in Game 1. Baynes is a decent value pick at this price since he is going to play about half the game ,but trying to figure out this Boston frontcourt outside of Horford is a big risk right now.
My pick: Henson(C)
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