FanDuel EPL Soccer DFS: Saturday 21 April 2018
By David Gate
There are only two games on the Saturday FanDuel EPL main slate but we have a plan to help you cash with the best tips and analysis.
The Premier League football doesn’t stop. After midweek games on Tuesday, Wednesday AND Thursday we have another match day tomorrow. However, while there is lots of football for fans to watch it does mean DFS players are only getting two game slates.
Like many DFS players I want at least four games on a slate to help with variance and finding advantages. There is an element of luck in a two game slate that is a little too much like a roulette wheel for me. But I still play roulette at the casino, so let’s go!
The two games are the early kick off between West Brom and Liverpool before Watford play Crystal Palace in a London(ish) derby.
I usually break down my column into three categories of Fixtures, Flyers and Fades. However with only two games on the slate I will look at each game individually. On a small slate like this every player is play as an option. It is far more about roster construction than the usual picking to back or fade.
The big advantage with this slate is the 7:30am kick off – on these slates there are always players who don’t get up in time to adjust lineups so if you are willing to set that alarm clock you can get a big jump on the field.
I’ll be on Twitter @davidgatesports to chat through lineups changes and team sheet surprises from 7:00amET for the early kick off.
FanDuel EPL: West Brom v Liverpool
Liverpool are the star team on this small slate. They have alongside Man City have been the most reliable DFS side for punters this season. The Reds guarantee goals and the attacking trio of Mohamed Salah (13000), Roberto Firmino (12000) and Sadio Mane (10500) should attract huge ownership tomorrow.
Salah has not scored only once (ONCE) in his last 14 (FOURTEEN) games. It was 14 out of 19 in the games before this run. That is only six times in his last 33 (THIRTY THREE) games he has not found the net. He will score on Saturday. The question is will that be enough at his price?
One of those teams he didn’t score against? West Brom in December. I can’t see him going for more than 3x value tomorrow and I think Liverpool only get two goals maximum ahead of the Champions League semi final on Tuesday. The bookies agree with me rating this game as likely to be under 2.5 goals.
I am fading Firmino in GPP because he won’t play the full 90 minutes and there is little upside at that price.
I love Craig Dawson (6000) and Ahmed Hegazi (6500) to reach value this week and, depending on the Crystal Palace team sheet, I will likely have a lot of Salomon Rondon as the cheapest forward on the slate. Loris Karius (5000) is my keeper for the day.
FanDuel EPL: Watford v Crystal Palace
This game is projected to have the most goals of the two matches. Neither side is very capable of keeping a clean sheet but both have players who know how to find the net. My lineups will dictated by the teams selected in this game.
Wilfried Zaha (9500) is the best player and most likely goal scorer in this game. He been playing as FWD but is still listed as a MID. I love when you get that in EPL DFS. He is a must play in cash. It will also be hard to avoid Luka Milivojevic (9000) who is on a great run on DFS. As the team’s penalty taker I want plenty of exposure to him.
Only Everton have conceded more penalties than either of these two teams in the EPL so I am also high on Troy Deeney (8000) despite him letting me down badly last week. Will Hughes (8000) is my favorite value midfield play this week – although James Milner (8000) rivals him in the other game.
I will be watching keenly for either Christian Benteke (7500) or Andrew Sorloth (7000) on the team sheet. Either would go straight into my lineup over Rondon if they start. With only four FWDs projected to start they are one way to create some valuable diversity on a small slate.
FanDuel EPL: Lineup
Note: this is a sample lineup and are not optimized. The only guarantee I can give you is that I will playing it too. I will also have some lines that are not here. Best thing is to take some of these picks and build your own lineup – especially in GPP – as lineup sharing only reduces the amount you can win.
Sample Lineup:
FWD: Rondon – West Brom
FWD: Deeney – Watford
MID: Hughes – Watford
MlD: Zaha – Crystal Palace
MID: Milivojevic – Crystal Palace
DEF: Hegazi – West Brom
DEF: Dawson – West Brom
GK: Karius – Liverpool
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