MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Friday April 20

Welcome to the Friday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

Thursday’s MLB DFS slate was exceptionally high scoring for a small five game slate and it was largely driven by low owned GPP fliers who went off in their match-ups. The Brewers offense which was the highest projected scoring team Vegas-wise delivered with 12 runs with Lorenzo Cain and Jesus Aguilar leading the charge. Pitching wise it was Jake Arrieta who turned back the clock with 10K’s as the top arm and overall player on the slate with an unowned Matt Wisler not far behind as the fourth overall scoring option on the slate as he went 7 innings and struck out 8 Mets at a punt price across the industry.

Wisler was a guy I used as my SP2 in all formats last night after it was announced he would start for Lucas Sims and for me this pick was driven by the context of the slate. The pitching options were ugly – I was not interested in overpaying for Jameson Taillon against a dangerous Phillies line-up and I was not about to roster a chalk “safe” Chase Anderson against a Marlins team that does not strike. With so many stud bats on my radar I simply played what the slate gave me and opted to go after the cheapest arm on the slate against a Mets team that outside of a few blow-up innings against the Nats bullpen, has been really underwhelming the last week.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.

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As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

MLB DFS – Starting Pitcher Overview:

This slate is awesome. I have to just start there – it is awesome and I cannot wait to dive in. We have a ton of aces, a game in Coors Field and the Yankees bats finally on a Main Slate so the sheer number of roster combinations we can explore makes this a great day for tournaments as I really do not see a “chalk” build at first glance.

Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer are the top two arms on the slate, both priced at $23.7K and facing each other in LA tonight. You do not need me to tell you that both pitchers are great plays as they have two of the top K rates available on the slate with Max sporting a 38.4% K rate this season and Kershaw having a 30% rate of his own. If you want to lock in either arm I certainly will not try to talk you out of it but honestly I do not see myself going there on this slate with the two arms facing off against each other which puts the win in doubt on both sides, and two dangerous offenses stepping in against them.

Justin Verlander ($23.3K) and Noah Syndergaard ($21.9K) sit in the next tier of arms with Thor’s 37.8% K rate ranking third in all of baseball and Verlander at 33.7% ranking 7th in the league. The fact that we have four of the top eleven strikeout arms in baseball so far this season all on the same slate should set the stage for your roster build that paying up for pitching is going to be a need more than a want on this slate.

I made the comment in the open about Matt Wisler and “playing what the slate gives you” as last night I was unwilling to overpay for “safe” underwhelming options where tonight we have the polar opposite discussion with so many elite arms in play and the question will be which one or ones do we prioritize.

Of all the arms in this top-tier, the match-up for Verlander in my opinion is the best one as he faces a White Sox team ranked 8th in K rate versus RHP this season (24.8%). We do not yet have Vegas information on this game yet as scheduled starter James Shields was forced to pitch in Wednesday’s extra inning affair against Oakland which first off makes me sad I cannot stack against Big Game James but it also opens up the potential for White Sox top prospect Michael Kopech to make a spot start. If we get word that Kopech ($12K) will start for Shields he would be a very interesting GPP play as he has overwhelming K ability (27%+ K rate in the minors) so keep an eye on this news.

Trevor Bauer ($17.6K) headlines the next tier of arms and is arguably my favorite overall arm on this slate for tournaments as he gets to face off with an Orioles team that is striking out at a league leading 28.3% rate versus RHP this season. With an Orioles projected line-up that is expected to have 6-7 RHB this sets up perfectly for Bauer who had a 29% K rate last season against RHB as opposed to a 23% K rate against left-handed batters.

Matt Koch ($9K) is the lowest priced arm on the slate so he gets tonight’s Matt Wisler treatment where again this play is less about the actual player but more about how using him as an SP2 gets you to a roster build you want. The match-up with the Padres is really enticing as they strike out at a 27.9% clip versus right-handers this season which is the third highest rate in all of baseball. Koch is a -130 home favorite, the sixth largest favorite on the slate and will face a Padres line-up that is already without Wil Myers and Manuel Margot and “clean-up hitter” Christian Villaneuva left Wednesday’s game early with an injury which could force him to miss tonight’s game. The projected line-up for the Padres is striking out at a 30.2% clip this season against RHP and while Koch is not a high K arm, striking out only 12 batters in 20 Major League innings this play is more about the line-up he is going against and his price point which will allow you to load up on high-end bats while still targeting one of the top arms on the slate. It worked last night with Wisler at 1% ownership – can we hit again?

MLB DFS – Top Hitting Spots:

Finally we get a Main Slate with the Yankees bats available and it couldn’t be a better match-up as they face an extreme fly ball pitcher in Marco Estrada in Yankee Stadium. There was no pitcher – not a single one – with a higher fly ball rate (50%) last season than Estrada and now he is going to be tasked with pitching to a loaded Yankee line-up in a ballpark that is tops in the league for power to both sides of the plate – good luck kid.

Estrada gave up 1.5 HR/9 to hitters from both sides of the plate and he as simply been brutal pitching in Yankee Stadium over 6 career starts surrendering 22 ER in 37 IP including 11 home runs – seriously 11 HR in 6 starts – ALL IN YANKEE STACK TODAY!

Didi Gregorious ($10.2K), Gary Sanchez ($9.4K), Aaron Judge ($10.3K) and Giancarlo Stanton ($9.8K) are all in play and you could add in Mattingly, Gehrig, Ruth and even Chuck Knoblauch if you want here. I really am interested to see how the ownership falls for the Yankees today as we have a ton of high-end arms to pay for, a game in Coors Field with the Cubs and the fact that the Yankees have not been on Main Slates may have kept their buzz down heading into this slate. Oh by the way – the wind is blowing out to RF at 16 MPH – seriously this is going to be a home run derby tonight and I want in.

If you want to build off the core four especially on FantasyDraft where you can stack 6 hitters, I could absolutely see adding Brett Gardner ($7.7K) and Aaron Hicks ($6.6K) and going full 1-6 in the Yankee line-up here.

The Red Sox bats are one I want to stack up every night and tonight against Kendall Graveman, a pitcher who has surrendered 19 runs and 6 HR’s in only 17 innings this season – they rank right up there with the Yankee bats for me tonight. Graveman is actually a reverse splits arm in his career, giving up 1.4 HR/9 against RHB and has given up 4 of his 6 HR’s early this year to right-handed bats so paying up for Mookie Betts ($10.6K) and J.D. Martinez ($10.3K) and stacking them with a lower cost heart of the order bat like Mitch Moreland ($6.3K) is a great way to get exposure to this high-octane offense.

It is always interesting to me to see how the bats are valued on a Coors Field slate and personally I will keep fading Coors early in the season with temperatures in the high 30’s/low 40’s but also keep an eye on the weather here as rain is expected through the afternoon/evening which could put this game in jeopardy. There is going to be ownership/appeal in a 10.5 total especially with the name bats available from the Rockies and Cubs but if this game wasn’t in Coors – if it was in any sort of even neutral ball park – would we really be going out of our way to roster these guys? Sorry but I am not paying up for the bats here when I can get the Yankee bats at home against the highest fly ball pitcher in the entire sport.

If you need a one-off – you know what day it is right? Wilmer Flores ($6.3K) versus a lefty day! Sorry it is mandatory in Picks and Pivots to have a Wilmer mention any time a lefty is on the hill and today against Sean Newcomb, I would go right back to the well like I always do!

MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:

The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own! 

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SP: Trevor Bauer ($17.6K)

SP: Matt Koch ($9K)

IF: Gary Sanchez ($9.4K)

IF: Didi Gregorious ($10.2K)

IF: Mitch Moreland ($6.3K)

OF: Aaron Judge ($10.3K)

OF: Giancarlo Stanton ($9.8K)

OF: Mookie Betts ($10.6K)

Util: J.D. Martinez ($10.3K)

Util: Nomar Mazara ($6.5K)

Slate Overview: On a slate with four of the top strikeout arms in baseball (Max, Kershaw, Thor and Verlander) and a game in Coors Field it may seem crazy to fade all of those spots but I think a really strong case can be made for it. Bauer in my mind is in the best pure spot for K upside and the Yankee/Red Sox bats have match-ups that in my opinion are light years ahead of the Rockies and Cubs and I refuse to let the Vegas total and the allure of Coors Field sway me when its going to be cold and damp in Denver tonight. I know it may seem insane to roll out a punt like Koch as my SP2 with THIS MUCH PITCHING but look at what it allows you to do with your line-up and listen, it could blow up in my face but with an injury plagued line-up in San Diego that has a 30%+ K rate, this is the kind of spot you roll the dice in GPP’s and see where it takes you. Good luck all!

Next: DraftKings MLB Picks

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