DraftKings NBA Picks April 21: Who has the best upside of the stars?

DraftKings NBA Picks April 21: Who has the best upside?

Get used to these unbalanced slates now that the playoffs are here. We have our first elimination game here with the Pelicans going for the sweep. We have two other game 3’s, and another game 4 in which Philly tries to take a commanding lead. There are stars galore on this stage. Who is worth paying for, and where is the value now that Embiid is back? Let’s find out!

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Russell Westbrook ($10,900): Russ has been very consistent in the first two games of this series, putting up 58.25 and 58.75 DraftKings points. Westbrook has averaged 58.1 DraftKings points per game in six games against the Jazz this year. We know exactly what to expect tonight: 68. That puts Russ a little over 5x value. I prefer him in cash games against Utah. There just isn’t a ton of upside here.

Ben Simmons ($9,600): Embiid returned, and Simmons still put up 52.5 DraftKings points, which was his most in the series so far. Simmons has been a nice source of value as well against the Heat. We pretty much know what we are getting here as well. Both Simmons and Westbrook are a little over 5x value for the playoffs so far. Use whichever one fits your budget.

Honorable Mention:

Chris Paul ($8,100): I would only use Paul in GPP formats right now. There is a lot of volatility here. Paul managed just 25.25 DraftKings points in Game 1 and 51.75 in Game 2. The series shifts to Minnesota now, but it’s hard to guess what we are going to get from Paul. It looks like it will be well above or well below value. I’m going to go above. His poor shooting night in Game 1 is very out of character for Paul.

Rajon Rondo ($7,600): Rondo had another strong game in Game 3, putting the Pelicans on the verge of a sweep. It isn’t just because of Rondo, but his contributions across every category are spearheading the Pelicans and giving him a crazy floor for DFS purposes. I love Rondo at this price again.

Dark Horses:

Ricky Rubio ($6,800): Rondo isn’t the only one that has stepped up in the playoffs. Rubio has racked up 85 DraftKings points in the first two games of this series, and his price is even lower than Rondo’s. Rondo is more consistent, but Rubio may have the higher ceiling here.

Goran Dragic ($6,300): Dragic had by far his best game of the series in Game 3, but the Heat still fell behind in the series 2-1. Dragic posted his most assists since March 19 in Game 3, and put together his second straight 20+ point effort. The Heat are going to need another all around night like this to avoid a huge series deficit.

My pick: Rondo(PG)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden ($10,700): How good are the Rockets? Harden went just 2-18 from the floor in Game 2, including 1-10 from beyond the arc, and Houston still won by 20. Despite the horrid shooting night from Harden, he still put together 38.5 DraftKings points because he does so much more than score. You wont see a score that low from Harden very often, and he usually bounces back big when you do.

Jrue Holiday ($7,800): Holiday slowed down a bit in Game 3, but he still put up close to 5x value. Whatever happens in the rest of this series, we can be pretty sure that Holiday will be involved heavily in the offense. I see Holiday as having a high floor with the potential to go off like he did in Game 2.

Honorable Mention:

Donovan Mitchell ($7,400): Well, I think Mitchell’s foot is just fine. The Jazz still have him with a questionable tag, but Mitchell played and played well in 43 minutes in Game 2. There should be no issues here. Mitchell has hung 91 DraftKings points on the Thunder in two games. He is a huge bargain right now.

C.J. McCollum ($6,600): Despite Lillard’s truly horrible last two games, McCollum hasn’t really seen an increase in usage. Partially because Lillard keeps hoisting up a big number of shots, but it is also because of the Pelicans defense. Yes, you read that right. Their defense. Part of the reason New Orleans is up 3-0 is their renewed fervor on defense on the perimeter. I still have CJ here because the price is right and the defensive lapses could happen at any time. However, McCollum is still getting plenty of shots, he just isn’t doing much else right now.

Dark Horses:

Marco Belinelli ($5,200): Well, it has finally happened. Belinelli outplayed Redick, outshot Redick, and even played more minutes than Redick in Game 3. Belinelli matches up better with the Heat than Redick does. That doesn’t mean that JJ will disappear completely, but we will likely see more of Belinelli down the stretch in this series. That makes him a huge bargain here.

Jamal Crawford ($3,800): The veteran sharpshooter has carved out a nice role on this team, but he still has little upside since he does nothing besides score. If the Timberwolves get down early again, they may have to go to Crawford early to try and keep this game within earshot, but Crawford’s weaknesses show through the more he is on the court.

My pick: Mitchell(SG), Belinelli(G)

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Paul George ($8,000): George turned in another 40 DraftKings points in Game 2. He has been solid just like Westbrook against Utah this season. The Jazz defense prevents either from having a big upside, but they are both locks for 5x value. That probably leaves PG and Westy as better for cash games, but you can place in a GPP with a safe lineup this time of year.

Andrew Wiggins ($5,600): The Timberwolves guards had a terrible game in Game 2, so Wiggins was able to produce a little more than usual. However, this was a bad game for just about everyone in blue. With Wiggins at this price 5x value is likely, but he is still an afterthought on offense. That keeps Wiggins from having much of an upside.

Honorable Mention:

Robert Covington ($5,500): Covington’s minutes did go down with Embiid back on the court, but it may simply have been because of foul trouble. At any rate, Covington is also priced fairly, leaving him a virtual lock for 5x value every game. However, like Wiggins, he lacks significant upside.

Al-Farouq Aminu ($5,500): Aminu has played really well in the last two games, but none of his teammates are following suit. Aminu put up 76.25 DraftKings points over the last two games. Hes production will likely continue at around this pace whether his teammates start to produce or not. Right now, the Blazers really need Aminu.

Dark Horses:

Justise Winslow ($5,000): As the Whiteside saga rolls on, it has been Winslow who has seen the largest uptick in production. We saw that Winslow is capable of scoring in Game 3. Right now the instability surrounding Whiteside makes anyone on this team hard to rely on for DFS purposes. However, the Heat really have no reason to keep Whiteside on the court if he isn’t helping. Right now, he is barely taking up space.

Gerald Green ($4,700): Harden wasn’t making shots. Big deal. Gerald Green’s long range assault all but buried Minnesota in Game 2. Green’s play could give him some more minutes with Eric Gordon and Trevor Ariza not doing a whole lot, but there is risk attached since Green’s minutes aren’t guaranteed.

My pick: N/A

Power Forwards:

Best Bet:

Anthony Davis ($11,000): The Blazers did a pretty solid job on A.D. again in Game 3, but Davis’s production was down in part because the Pelicans didn’t need him for the last few minutes. This game was already out of hand. Davis is going to get his just like PG and Westy, but he has more upside than both of them.

Nikola Mirotic ($7,500): Mirotic had a huge game in Game 3, racking up 53 DraftKings points in just 30 minutes! Mirotic was 12-15 from the floor in that game. The Blazers haven’t really had an answer for Mirotic in his series either. Since New Orleans put Mirotic back in the starting lineup, they are 8-0. Look for another big game from Mirotic tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Dario Saric ($6,500): Saric has been solid all season for the Sixers, and the playoffs have been no different. Over the first three games of this series, Saric has put up 119 DraftKings points. His production wasn’t hurt by Embiid’s return at all. Expect another game well above value for Saric.

Carmelo Anthony ($5,900): Melo put up solid numbers again in Game 2. Dollar for dollar, his production in the series is on par with his more famous teammates. That means even if you can’t afford the stars, Anthony is still going to get you solid production for the price.

Dark Horses:

James Johnson ($5,700): Johnson has played very well the last two games, contributing across every category. The Heat had troubles with Embiid in Game 3, but Whiteside didn’t seem all that interested in helping out. If someone or something manages to light a fire under Whiteside, it could be bad for the value of Johnson and Winslow, but right now, that looks like it has little chance of happening.

Trevor Ariza ($4,600): Ariza finally contributed from the floor. Well, kind of. It took him 14 shots and Ariza still only made five. His shooting slump is still in full swing, but Ariza is still on the court for his defense. His minutes aren’t going away, and the slump can’t last forever. Yet, Ariza’s price has fallen to the point where he can hit value even if his shot isn’t really falling.

My pick: Mirotic(PF), Saric(SF), Ariza(F), Anthony(UTIL)

Center:

Best Bets:

Joel Embiid ($9,100): Embiid is not a fan of the mask, but it allows him to be on the court. The Sixers took full advantage of the big man’s 30 minutes, feeding him 45.75 DraftKings points. That is almost exactly 5x value. Embiid may do more once he becomes comfortable with the mask as well. He could still be a value at this price.

Clint Capela ($7,200): The Rockets can beat you in so many ways. In Game 1, Capela took it at Towns. In Game 2, it was an onslaught from outside. What will it be in Game 3? Who knows, but even with less usage in Game 2, Capela was still close to value. There is potential here.

Honorable Mention:

Ruby Gobert ($6,700): Gobert finally got involved across the board in Game 2. Gobert turned in his best game since April 3rd, taking full advantage of the off night by Adams. Will Adams be able to guard him in Game 3? We don’t really know, but I would bet that Utah takes it at the OKC front like they did in Game 2.

Kelly Olynyk ($5,800): Olynyk continues to play solid basketball in this series. Like I said before, it’s hard to get a good read on anything with Whiteside being the world’s largest black hole on the basketball court. Nothing has been said about Whiteside or his effort in Game 3 by the coaching staff. Until something comes out publicly, it should be safe to go with Olynyk and Johnson. I’m not sure where Whiteside fits in here. Neither are the Heat.

Dark Horse:

Derrick Favors ($5,300): Favors had a monster game in Game 2, putting up 48.5 DraftKings points in 37 minutes. That was the most minutes for Favors since 363 days ago when he played 38 against the Clippers in the first round last year. Expect the Jazz to ride Favors and Gobert again since it worked so well in Game 2.

My pick: Favors(C)

Next: DraftKings MLB Picks

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for MLB covered on all major DFS sites, and for PGA picks as well!