Matt Harvey and why his struggles mean so much more
After looking like he was back in 2015, nothing has gone right for Matt Harvey, culminating in massive blowups this season, and a potentially lost rotation spot.
Once upon a time, every five days, Mets fans would have Harvey Day. They would wake up to tweets of “Happy Harvey Day” and hearing that their best pitcher was going today. It was special. Matt Harvey was the Dark Knight and he was the saving grace in a lost season. T-shirts and masks were made for game day. The Mets even had a shot at their first Cy Young award since R.A. Dickey. Then, that fateful August, Harvey tore his UCL and needed Tommy John surgery, costing him all of the 2014 season.
Even after returning from Tommy John, he had a spectacular 2015, pitching to a 2.71 ERA and 1.019 WHIP. He won the Comeback Player of the Year award and looked like he was ready to continue to dominate the league. Only one problem remained, the Mets made a World Series run. Harvey came into the season with a 180 innings limit from his doctor, while the Mets were a little more lenient with it. While he stayed pretty close with 189 regular season innings, but then added 26.2 innings in the playoffs. For someone who’s motion required him to whip his arm around and put a lot of stress on his shoulder, this didn’t bode well.
The next year, Harvey was diagnosed with Thoracic Outlet Syndrome in his shoulder and had to be operated on for it. Since then, he hasn’t been the same. He hasn’t had an ERA below 4.8 since that 2015 season. Whether or not it is because he exceeded his innings limit is unknown, but we haven’t had the Matt Harvey of old.
Most of his struggles this year have been linked with a dip in velocity. Without the fastball that was once his best weapon, he has had to relearn how to attack hitters. He hasn’t adjusted yet. Hitters are squaring the ball up against him far more easily than they used to. The inability to blow hitters away needs to come with an ability to produce soft contact. Bartolo Colon is a prime example of this. Colon has mastered his command and with it has come a 55% ground ball rate. The home run to fly ball rate is more telling. It says how hard people are able to hit the ball in the air against a pitcher. Colon is at 7.1% this year, while Harvey has been over 20% each of the last two seasons. People are hitting the ball hard off of him.
Slugging percentages off of Harvey have increased steadily. He has to reshape his entire approach to pitching if he wants to be able to stay around the league. Fortunately for him, this may not come with his undesired move to the bullpen. Unfortunately for him, it may come with going to AAA to work on this specifically. More importantly, he has to buy in to whatever the coaching staff tells him about how to attack hitters.
Mets fans want Harvey to be good. They want Harvey day to be a thing again. They want the dream rotation to happen. However, with Jason Vargas on the verge of returning and Zach Wheeler looking great, Harvey could be on his way to AAA soon. Nobody wants to see it happen, but Harvey isn’t giving the Mets the best chance to win.
Next: Best Starting Pitchers in MLB History
If he can’t figure it out, the fab five rotation won’t ever happen, crushing another dream of Mets fans everywhere.