Welcome into the Monday edition of the FanDuel daily fantasy baseball column! We have a medium-sized eight-game slate tonight so let’s jump in.
Tonight is the night we put our foot down and get this losing streak stopped. It’s a long season but dropping three slates in a row is a bummer. Most of the analysis has been fine, it’s just been the sample lineup that hasn’t quite worked yet. When you’re right by the cash line and players like Giancarlo Stanton and Ryan Braun put up zeroes, it can be frustrating.
The important thing is to stay consistent. Days like the past three are why bankroll management are critical to success. If you’re getting greedy after a few wins like when we hit a bunch of days in a row, you’ll never see your money truly grow. With all that being said, let’s get into tonight’s slate and get back to the money.
Starting Pitcher, High End Spend
Carlos Carrasco, $9,600
.194 (7 for 36), 10.5 strikeout rate
In total honesty, the high end of the pitching on this slate is a little concerning compared to normal. Gerrit Cole is in Anaheim but the Angels don’t strike out a ton. His price might be a little high given the matchup. We’re going to keep on picking on the strikeout rate of the Orioles, even though Corey Kluber couldn’t find that portion of his game yesterday. Carrasco has been excellent against right-handed hitting so far, limiting them to a .128 average, .413 OPS and a .177 wOBA. That’s also backed up by a 19.1 strikeout percentage which is far below his career normals. The hard contact is down at 21 percent. His whole profile suggests dominance in every aspect except strikeouts so far in 2018. Baltimore strikes out at the third-highest rate in baseball against right-handed pitching.
Also Consider – Gerrit Cole, $10,700(GPP only)
Mid-Range
There is basically no middle ground with pitching tonight. Gio Gonzalez might look attractive on paper, given the Giants are carrying a very high strikeout rate against lefties. Beware of those numbers because the Giants have faced Clayton Kershaw, Patrick Corbin, and Robbie Ray at least once so far this season. San Francisco also carries hitters like Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey and Evan Longoria who hit lefty pitching very well. Given the form of Masahiro Tanaka, I’m not playing him at over $9,000. Tyler Skaggs gets the Astros offense and Jake Odorizzi is in Yankee Stadium. It really feels like a night to pay up or down at pitching.
Value
Trevor Cahill, $6,600
.333(18 for 54), 20.7 strikeout rate
Cahill might not be the most exciting pitcher to roster in daily fantasy because he doesn’t always carry a huge strikeout upside. He did strikeout eight White Sox his last outing en route to a 55-point performance and there’s a chance he could replicate that performance again tonight. Texas strikes out at 25 percent of the time and Cahill has a career group ball rate of 55.1 percent. Those factors line up pretty well tonight and Cahill should be a worthy target for GPPs, even if he’s a little scary in cash games.
Also Consider – Chris Stratton, $6,900