DraftKings Early MLB Picks April 25: Scherzer or Verlander?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings Early MLB Picks April 25: Scherzer or Verlander?
There are only four early games on getaway day, but there are two aces out there. Should we use both of them? Neither of them? How about one and not the other? Let’s check out some past stats to help us get started.
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There is no rain in the forecast for the afternoon, but there is a sturdy wind blowing out to right in Chicago. That’s something to keep an eye on.
These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. Stacking against a bad pitcher is always a good idea!
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Next: DraftKings Pitcher Plays
Top Tier:
Max Scherzer ($13,100): Scherzer has been dominant this year, but the Giants have held their own against him. The .209 average isn’t much, but the Giants have five homers and 16 runs in only 110 at bats. The 39 strikeouts is a pretty hefty total, so of course, Scherzer will always have solid numbers because of the strikeouts, but the Giants may not be the pushovers they seem to be.
Justin Verlander ($12,000): Verlander has held the Angels to a pathetic .123 average in 171 at bats, but they do have four homers and 11 runs. The 56 strikeouts help make up for a lot of that though. The sheer number of outs that Verlander has recorded against the Angels make him worthy of this price tag, but you are likely going to have to choose between him and Scherzer.
Middle Tier:
Jeff Samardzija ($7,500): The Nationals are hitting a solid .271 in 85 at bats against Shark, but they only have three homers and seven runs to go with 20 strikeouts. Samardzija has done a good job of limiting the damage, but he has little chance at a win against Scherzer.
Bargain Pitchers:
Felix Hernandez ($6,500): I’m a little torn with King Felix here today. The White Sox are only hitting .250 off of him in 32 at bats, but they have two homers and six RBI with only seven strikeouts. However, Felix has a 3.95 career ERA in 11 starts at New Comiskey U.S. Cellular Guaranteed Rate Field. There is decent potential here for the price.
Tyson Ross ($6,100): Yes, I realize that Ross is pitching at Coors Field. There are a lot of things about Ross to like today. First off, he flirted with a no hitter in Chase Field his last time out, which is almost as friendly as Coors Field. Second, the Rockies are only hitting .235 against Ross in 81 at bats with three homers, eight RBI, and a tasty 17 strikeouts. On top of that, Ross has a solid 3.72 ERA In seven career starts at Coors Field. Strangely enough, he still hasn’t won a game there. It could come today.
Top Tier:
Nolan Arenado is only 6-25(.240) against Tyson Ross, but he does have two homers, a steal, and five RBI off of him in his career. Is that worth $5,500?
Wil Myers is 7-21 with two walks, two doubles, a homer, a steal, three runs scored, and five RBI in his career against Jon Gray. Gray used to be better at Coors than on the road, but that hasn’t been the case this year so far. Gray has an unsightly 11.70 ERA in two starts at Coors so far in 2018. If A.J. Ellis cracks the starting lineup, he has a two run homer for his only hit in two at bats against Jon Gray.
Middle Tier:
Kyle Seager is 8-20 with three walks, a double, three homers, five runs, and eight RBI already against James Shields. It looks like it’s Mariners stack day, and a lot of them are very reasonably priced!
Albert Pujols is the only Angel with a batting average above .150 against Justin Verlander. Pujols is 7-26(.269) with five walks, three doubles, a homer, six runs, and two RBI off of Verlander in his career. Mike Trout has homered twice off of Verlander, but they are both solo shots, and his only hits in 20 tries against Verlander.
Bargain Shoppers:
Welington Castillo is the guy that has hit Felix Hernandez the hardest, and there is a chance that he wont even be in the lineup for a day game after a night game. Castillo is 2-3 with a walk, two homers, and three RBI off of Felix. The rest of the team is 6-29 with no homers and three RBI.
Remember Pablo Sandoval? If he is in the lineup here, you may want to get reacquainted. Panda is 3-11 with two homers and three RBI off of Max Scherzer.
Can Matt Adams crack the starting nine today? If he does, I love him as a cheap option. Adams is 7-14 with a walk, two doubles, two homers, four runs, and three RBI against Jeff Samardzija in his career.
Top Tier:
Jose Altuve is 4-6 with a steal and a RBI in his career so far against Nick Tropeano. Carlos Correa is 0-2 so far, but it’s a small sample size.
Most of the Rockies are too expensive against Tyson Ross. DJ LeMahieu is 5-17(.294) with three walks, two doubles, and three runs off of Ross though.
Trea Turner is 4-7 with a double, a solo homer, a steal, and three runs against Jeff Samardzija. Wilmer Difo is worth a look as well if he starts. Difo is 2-6 with two doubles and two runs.
Middle Tier:
Robinson Cano is 38-92(.413) with eight walks, nine doubles, two triples, six homers, a steal, 16 runs scored, and an amazing 20 RBI. BvP doesn’t get much better than this. Use Cano today! Jean Segura is worth a look as well. Segura is 2-6 with a walk, a double, and two runs.
Bargain Shoppers:
Freddy Galvis is still priced in this tier despite his 4-13 career against Jon Gray. Galvis also has a walk, a double, a steal, and three runs in those 13 at bats.
Brandon Crawford is only 2-9 against Max Scherzer, but he has a homer and three RBI and is super cheap.
Next: Top Outfield Plays
Top Tier:
Charlie Blackmon is 5-20 with three walks, a homer, three steals, and two RBI in his career against Tyson Ross. Also, playing a cheap inexperienced guy such as David Dahl could be a good idea here as well.
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Middle Tier:
Dee Gordon is 5-7 with a triple, a steal, and three runs against James Shields. Ichiro is 20-68(.294) with three walks, two doubles, a triple, a homer, a steal, nine runs and two RBI. He is worth a look if he gets a start. Nelson Cruz is only 7-31(.226) against Shields, but he has a homer and five RBI.
Manuel Margot and Jose Pirela are both 2-6 with a run and a RBI against Jon Gray. Cory Spangenberg is 4-15 with a double, a homer, and three RBI. He is also eligible at third base if you aren’t paying for Arenado.
Bargain Shoppers:
Jake Marisnick is worth a look if he gets the start. Marisnick is perfect against Nick Tropeano with a single, a homer, and two RBI in his two at bats. Josh Reddick is 4-7 with two walks, and two doubles. George Springer? He is only 1-6 lifetime against Tropeano, and that hit was a single.
Look out for Gregor Blanco. Blanco is 5-9 with two walks, two doubles, a run, and three RBI in his career against Max Scherzer. Andrew McCutchen is only 4-23(.174), but he does have a homer and three RBI off of Scherzer.
Next: Main Slate DraftKings MLB Picks
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball, along with our PGA picks. Still in NBA mode? No worries, we have the NBA DFS covered for the playoffs as well!