Timberwolves-Rockets (Rockets Lead 3-1)
After Game 4, it’s tough to feel good about anyone on Minnesota. They exceed expectations in Game 3 and then crashed back down to earth in Game 4. Karl-Anthony Towns has played well in the last two games, but his struggles in Houston give me pause about taking him. Jeff Teague may or may not be bother by an injury, and if he is, it’s going to mean more playing time for Derrick Rose. The typically reliable Andrew Wiggins was a bust in Game 4 and at his salary, you shouldn’t feel too good about him.
Like Towns, Butler performed well in Minnesota, but as the series goes back to Houston, he’s less attractive. When Rose is the most reliable guy to hit value, something is wrong with things.
It’s possible the Timberwolves come out and compete hard and guys are able to at least hit value. But we’ve seen this team all season. Their defense simply isn’t good enough and their offensive numbers masked a lot of glaring issues that have been exposed in the playoffs.
It’s likely that the Rockets run the Timberwolves off the court in Game 5. James Harden is poised for another big night and Chris Paul will pick up any slack. Clint Capela will get points and rebounds without an issue. Trevor Ariza has been hit-and-miss, but he’s still a reliable guy who gets his shots alongside the starters.
Eric Gordon and Gerald Green are the two role players who will need to be good at home. I still have concerns with Gordon and Green bottomed out in Minnesota. Both players should feel comfortable at home and both may end up over value.
There’s a lot to like on the Houston side of things if this game goes how most figure it will. Save some money with Capela as your center instead of Towns, build around Harden, or even save money with Paul as your point guard instead of Wall or Westbrook.