DraftKings NBA Picks April 25: LeBron or John Wall?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks April 25: LeBron or John Wall?
Get used to these unbalanced slates now that the playoffs are here. We have four games tonight with Houston and Utah trying to close out the series. We will not have an article for tomorrow with only one game going on, Game 6 between Milwaukee and Boston. There will likely be tournaments for it, but without late swap, there is too much risk involved.
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Last night the money line was the lowest of the playoffs at 232.25. There were a lot of bad nights, namely from anyone with a Miami Heat uniform on. My value picks all failed, so my lineup was toast early.
The winning lineup was the lowest of the entire season at 298.25. He built around Draymond and LMA and got good value out of Horford, Olynyk, and Jabari Parker. He even survived poor nights from Wayne Ellington and Dejounte Murray.
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Point Guards:
Best Bet:
Russell Westbrook ($10,600): Westbrook has been exactly what every troll and hater on the internet claim him to be over the last two games. Is Westbrook pressing too hard? Does he not trust his teammates enough? Whatever the case, he was nowhere close to value in Utah, but with the series shifting back to Oklahoma City, I like Westbrook here. He put up 117 DraftKings points in the two games there. Look for him to play like we know he can play and not the shell that made the trip to Utah.
John Wall ($10,500): Wall has been far better than Westbrook over their respective first round series. Westbrook is a much bigger risk right now. We have seen Wall put up three 60+ DraftKings points games in four tries in the series. Westbrook has none. This is a pretty easy decision.
Honorable Mention:
Chris Paul ($8,200): Paul has been off and on this entire series with high 20’s in Games 1 and 3 and 50+ DraftKings point efforts in Games 2 and 4. This is supposed to be the off game for Paul, but can he finally put together something in between? If he can, Paul is a solid value here.
Kyle Lowry ($7,800): After a quiet Game 1, Lowry has put up three straight 40+ DraftKings point games. The upside isn’t all that big with Lowry due to all of the talent on this team, but Lowry looks like a lock for another 40 tonight.
Ricky Rubio ($7,500): Rubio was a little off in Game 4, but he still put up 35 DraftKings points. The fact that that was his lowest total of the series means that Rubio is a solid mid-level choice. He picked up a triple double in Game 3, so you know there is plenty of upside here.
Dark Horses:
Darren Collison ($5,600): Much like I thought, Collison bounced back from a horrendous Game 3 to put up solid numbers in Game 4. The thing to take away from that game is that Collison took the highest number of shots for him in the series. There could be a little more upside here tonight.
Derrick Rose ($4,600): Rose is doing everything he can to keep Minnesota in this. Don’t be shocked if Rose outplays Teague again. At any rate, I trust Rose a whole lot more than Teague, especially at this price point.
My pick: Wall(PG), Rose(G)
Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
James Harden ($10,900): Harden had his best game since Game 1, putting up 57.5 DraftKings points in Game 4. That’s why Harden is always in play. He is capable of putting up big numbers on any given night. Expect the offense to revolve around Harden again. He is almost always worth the price.
Donovan Mitchell ($8,400): Just when you think Mitchell can’t do anything more, he puts up another 50+ DraftKings points. The super rookie hardly missed in Game 4. The high volume and shots that Mitchell gets every game make him a solid play every night. In the playoffs he has flashed enough upside for constant GPP usage as well.
DeMar DeRozan ($8,300): DeRozan put up his best game since March 31st in Game 4, but it still wasn’t enough to give the Raptors a commanding lead in the series. We know that DeRozan is capable of big games like this, but he doesn’t consistently put them up. There is some risk here.
Honorable Mention:
Victor Oladipo ($8,100): Oladipo was 20-37 from the floor in the first two games in Cleveland. He was just 10-35 from the floor in Indy. Oladipo is going to be happy to be back in Cleveland, but will it be enough for him to hit value for the first time since Game 1?
Jimmy Butler ($7,900): Butler had another strong game in the Game 4 loss. What is clear is that Minnesota will go as Butler goes. He is far too cheap for what he is capable of. We could see Butler be a huge value here tonight.
Dark Horses:
Eric Gordon ($4,800): After a very quiet first two games, Gordon has put up 46.25 DraftKings points in the last two games. His three point shot has been falling lately, so it seems like Gordon is getting back on track just in time.
Kyle Korver ($4,300): Korver is a risk for DFS purposes, but the Cavs are going to keep giving him minutes. Just the threat of an outside shooter is enough to alter the way that the Pacers have to approach this. For that reason, Korver is going to keep getting good minutes if nothing else.
My pick: Butler(SG), Korver(UTIL)
Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
LeBron James ($12,000): It says something when LeBron’s low mark for the series is 59.5 DraftKings points. LeBron is money against the Pacers. He has been all series, and he will be until this series is over.
Paul George ($8,000): George continues to put up good numbers throughout this series. As far as value goes, George has been a more reliable bet than Westbrook. If choosing a Thunder player to build around, I’m going George.
Honorable Mention:
Andrew Wiggins ($6,200): Wiggins had by far his worst game of the series on Monday. It was a series low in shooting percentage, rebounds, and assists. I would say that the chances of Wiggins coming up that short again aren’t very good. I look for Wiggins to rebound here, but the chances of him hitting 5x value are not all that great.
Joe Ingles ($6,100): The Jazz have been a much better team overall with Ingles more involved in the offense. Of course, that has come at the expense of the bigs, but in this series, this is clearly the way to attack the Thunder. Look for another strong game from Ingles here.
Dark Horses:
Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,200): Bogdanovic struggled with his shot on Sunday, but he still came up with 21 DraftKings points. Since Bojan is mostly a shooter, there is some risk involved, but when he is locked in, you are winning money. That makes Bojan a perfect GPP pick.
Trevor Ariza ($4,700): Ariza had a strong game in Game 4 with 25.5 DraftKings points. This is about the top of the scoring spectrum for Ariza on this stacked team. He is in there for defense, not offense. That makes Ariza a risk to use most of the time, but for value picks, he’s not a bad choice since he plays quite a few minutes.
My pick: Bogdanovic(SF), Ariza(F)
Power Forwards:
Best Bets:
Derrick Favors ($5,900): Kevin Love has had a pedestrian series at best so far. For that reason, I like Favors better here. He had a huge game in Game 2, and has been at or near value in the other three. Favors is a far safer option than Love, and he comes cheaper.
Carmelo Anthony ($5,800): Anthony has seen a decrease in DraftKings points in every game of this series. That is an ominous sign, but it doesn’t have so much to do with Utah figuring him out as it does Melo’s poor shooting. There is good potential because the shots are still there, but there is no guarantee that Melo and the Thunder will get back on track.
Honorable Mention:
Serge Ibaka ($5,700): Ibaka was much better in Toronto, so with the series heading back to Canada, I’m more comfortable using Serge here than I was in Washington. Does it really just have to do with the venue? Maybe, but Ibaka took 22 shots in Toronto to just nine over two games in Washington. If the Raptors use him in the offense, Ibaka is a strong mid level play.
Thaddeus Young ($5,500): Young was a non-factor in the first two games of the series, but he came up huge in Indiana. The Pacers looked good with Young taking on a much larger role in Game 4. Thad isn’t going to haul in 16 rebounds again, but he is still a strong bet to hit value here.
Dark Horses:
Domantas Sabonis ($4,200): This is what we were waiting to see from Sabonis in this series. He wasn’t aggressive in the first three games of the series, but he really took it at the Cavs in Game 4. Sabonis put up 26 DraftKings points in that game. If he can do that again, he is one of the better values out there.
Jae Crowder ($4,100): Consistency has been a big problem for Crowder for much of his tenure in Utah. He turned in a great all around night in Game 4. He is capable of these, but you may have to wade through some off games first. There is a lot of risk here with little upside.
My pick: Young(PF)
Center
Best Bets:
Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,500): Towns finally put together back to back 40+ DraftKings points games in Games 3 and 4. Now he returns to Houston, which was a house of horrors for Towns in the first two games of the series. I don’t trust Towns here. If you have enough money to buy Towns, you likely need to upgrade somewhere else.
Clint Capela ($7,300): Capela has outscored Towns in this series, and is still $1,300 cheaper. Follow the cash here. Capela has a better floor and more upside than Towns right now.
Honorable Mention:
Rudy Gobert ($7,000): Gobert has been strong over the ast three games after a quiet Game 1. Honestly, Gobert has been more consistent than Capela has, but Capela still has more upside. I prefer Gobert in cash games, but Capela can give you a bigger boost in GPP formats if you don’t mind taking risks.
Dark Horse:
Marcin Gortat ($4,400): There are a lot of guys that haven’t hit value yet in their respective series lurking around in this area. Gortat played well in front of his home fans, putting up 45.75 DraftKings points in those two games after just 22.75 in the two games north of the border. There is risk involved here, but Gortat seems to have something figured out here.
My pick: Gobert(C)
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