MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Thursday April 26
Welcome to the Thursday’s edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
If we ever needed a reminder that there are no such things as sure things in MLB DFS well watching a near -400 favorite in Clayton Kershaw labor through 5 innings versus the Marlins and get outscored on the night by Jhoulys Chacin, Trevor Richards and Aaron Sanchez sure snapped me back into reality. Yesterday ended up being a positive day for Picks and Pivots as the early slate move of locking in Jon Gray as our SP2 paid huge dividends with a double-digit strikeout performance and the top fantasy outing (37) on the first slate. The main slate would have seemed dicey with Kershaw struggling but he was so universally owned that it really meant nothing outside of larger tournaments as the pivot to Trevor Bauer and inclusion of Mookie Betts who led the scoring were the key difference makers on a lower scoring Main Slate.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS -Early Slate Pitching:
We get another day of split slate action with five early slate games on FantasyDraft which kick off at 12:35PM EST and end with the 1:15PM EST Mets/Cardinals game so we should have no issue with starting line-up news with the condensed early start times before lock and at first glance we have no weather issues to monitor so let’s dive in.
The two best pitchers on the early slate Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Martinez also happen to be facing each other in what Vegas has set up as essentially a pick’em in St. Louis. This is a rematch of Opening Day in New York where Thor struck out 10 batters but gave up 4 ER on 2 HR’s and Carlos Martinez struggled with command, walking 6, striking out 5 and giving up 5 runs in only 4.1 IP.
From a pure upside perspective it is hard to argue that any pitcher on the slate has more K upside than Syndergaard who is sporting a 34.8% K rate this season so even if he does give up a run or two, he has the K upside to make up for it which makes paying up for him as an SP1 a great early strategy. Martinez since that Opening Day start has been brilliant over 4 starts against the Brewers and Reds, striking out 10+ in two of those games and surrendering only one ER over those four starts. My interest in Martinez is going to be 100% line-up dependent for the Mets who opted to sit Asdrubal Cabrera last night with a hamstring and with a day game after a night game if any of the big bats (Conforto, Bruce, Yoenis, Frazier) get a day off then it would pique my interest a little.
Sean Newcomb looks like my favorite SP2 at first glance as he has the demonstrated K upside I look for in MLB DFS, sporting a 28.4% K rate so far this season through four starts with the added bonus of a 51% ground ball rate while surrendering only 26% hard contact. What is even more impressive than just the stats is the opponents as he has faced the last three games with the Mets at home and on the road against the Cubs and in Rockies, striking out 21 over 17 IP and surrendering only 4 ER. Facing the Reds today will be by far his easiest opponent on paper so not only does this seem like a solid run prevention spot but Newcomb has shown some sneaky K upside at a price point substantially lower than Thor and C-Mart on this early slate.
Ivan Nova is not usually someone I look at in MLB DFS as his K upside is typically capped but there are certain match-ups where is intriguing, specifically when he faced a right-handed heavy line-up. The Tigers are that kind of line-up where we could see 6-7 RHB in the line-up so there is some solid K expectation here (thinking 5-6 punch outs) and the fact he is a -140 home favorite gives him some added viability as an SP2.
My first look on this slate is to go high/low with Thor and Newcomb as it captures two of the best strikeout arms on this short slate but I also wonder if that becomes the default build. With the Cardinals and Mets both having strong offenses, I wonder if we fade this game entirely – hope for mediocre games (think 6 IP, 6-7 K’s with 2-3 ER’s) for both Thor and C-Mart and instead pay down for Newcomb and Nova and load up on bats. I will have to wait and see what line-ups look like before lock but will certainly go into this slate with a few potential roster build avenues.
MLB DFS – Early Slate Hitting:
The Yankees have the highest team total of any team in action on Thursday and will likely be the chalk early slate stack with a match-up against RHP Kyle Gibson. Gibson is a career reverse splits arm, giving up a higher HR/9 and hard contact rate to right-handed batters which is not ideal considering these Yankees from what I understand have some pretty good right-handed power bats.
Gibson relies heavily on his sinker which he throws nearly 40% of the time and if you look at the numbers for the Big 3 (Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez) they all have ISO’s of .230+ with hard contact rates of 37% or higher so this would seem like a pitcher they profile exceptionally well against. Oh by the way – it is going to be in the mid 60’s today in New York with 15+ MPH winds blowing out to RF – this may be the chalk early stack but goodness it seems like a dangerous fade.
The Atlanta Braves bats looks like option 1B to the Yankees 1A on this early slate as a match-up with Homer Bailey should sound all the alarm bells that a stack is in order. Bailey over the last two seasons has given up a ton of hard contact (35%) with nearly a 10% walk rate versus a tiny 15% K rate in the Great American Small Park – this has a recipe for a big time brooked number today. Ozzie Albies and Freddie Freeman are both sporting .200+ ISO’s versus RHP this season and with the addition of Ronald Acuna Jr. to the Atlanta this becomes a much deeper and dangerous Braves line-up.
Jordan Montgomery may end up being a very popular SP2 on this slate as a near -200 home favorite but I actually like the idea of attacking him with the Twins bats to get some leverage on this short slate. Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano both absolutely crush LHP over the last two seasons with .290+ ISO rates and 37%+ hard contact rates which makes then an interesting mini-stack in the same ideal hitting environments we want to attack with the Yankees this afternoon.
In tournaments, do not overlook the Mets bats assuming they are all in the line-up. The general “buzz” for the Mets offense has seem to worn off in recent days and the ownership the last two games in St. Louis has been consistently low as I have been able to roster guys like Michael Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes and Jay Bruce at under 5% ownership in each of the last two slates. With their match-up against C-Mart, I would expect that most people will shy away again and on a short slate they have the power potential to big a massive difference maker in GPP’s.
Overall – just remember that on these early slate with day games after night games, we tend to see watered down line-ups across baseball which not only could open up value but push some of these fringe pitchers up/down in our rankings. As an example – if for some reason Dozier/Sano got the day off for Minnesota then Montgomery would become a pitcher to roster and not attack – just stay flexible as we get line-up news leading up to lock.
MLB DFS – Main Slate Pitching
On a four game slate, it would seem like locking in Chris Sale is a must play with his slate leading 36% K rate this season against the Blue Jays but let’s keep in mind the lesson we learned with Kershaw last night – there is no such thing as a sure thing in MLB DFS. In cash games I would not even entertain the idea of a fade as my SP1 as Sale will face a Blue Jays line-up with a 25% K rate against LHP this season and his reliance on the slider matches up perfectly with a Toronto team that has struggled against that pitch in similar match-ups this season against SP’s like Luis Severino. Sale is the largest favorite on the slate at -185 and the Blue Jays have the lowest team total on the board so outside of a large field GPP play in the hopes he pulls a Kershaw, I am not sure there is a real reason to pivot off him.
Chris Archer would seem like the logical pivot but his reduced K rate (24.2% this season) is a bit of a red flag for me today as he is striking out batters at a 5% reduced mark from last year. The match-up against the Orioles is boom or bust but it is worth noting that Baltimore has the third highest K rate in all of baseball against RHP this season at 26.7%. With no “must have” offenses on the slate there is some merit to paying up for both Sale and Archer here and going with the sheer K upside of the two elite arms available to us.
Jakob Junis looks like the best bet if you are going high/low today for an SP2 against the White Sox, especially if Jose Abreu is forced to miss this game after leaving Wednesday with flu-like symptoms. The White Sox strikeout at a 25% clip versus RHP which is 9th highest in all of baseball so there is K upside but also risk here as the White Sox have a dangerous boom/bust line-up that is headlined by Yoan Moncada. My interest in Junis is heavily tied to the availability of Abreu who is officially day-to-day as his 15% K rate versus RHP brings the overall team K upside down significantly while also standing in with one of the most dangerous bats in the Chicago line-up.
If Junis becomes the chalk SP2 as people tend to pick on the White Sox more than they should (see Felix Hernandez yesterday) than I have no issue fading him but keep an eye on the White Sox line-up today as if it is right-handed heavy, we can focus on Junis 23% K rate to RHB this season and attack a potential Abreu-less line-up.
MLB DFS – Hitting on the Main Slate:
The fact that the Royals have the highest implied team total on the Main Slate tells you everything you need to know about the hitting which makes me lean more and more towards paying up for both SP with Sale and Archer tonight. The Royals get a nice match-up against Lucas Giolito who has walked 19 batters, given up 20 ER and pitched only 20 innings this year – for those of you new to MLB DFS – that is not super awesome.
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Giolito is giving up a .212 ISO to LHB this season which makes the Mike Moustakas and Lucas Duda duo one of the best mini-stacks on the slate and with Salvador Perez back in the heart of this line-up there is a great 3-4-5 stack to be built here against the worst pitcher going this evening.
If there is one offense capable of winning you this slate, the Red Sox against Marco Estrada would seem like the ideal place to pay up for hitting tonight. Now the BvP may tell you to stay away as Estrada over the last two years has held the Red Sox hitters to a paltry .143 average with 1 HR in 56 at-bats but Estrada has also struggled mightily out of the gate this year, giving up 9 ER in his last two outings versus the Yankees and Orioles with 3 HR’s allowed. Estrada is a fly ball pitcher with reverse splits giving up a .365 ISO to RHB this season so if you want a high dollar stack of Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez and J.D. Martinez than you could easily make the case and hope the bats carry your squad tonight.
Enjoy the dual slate MLB DFS action today and stay tuned to my Twitter @2LockSports as I will share additional thoughts on both slates as line-ups are released and we head towards lock.
Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!