MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Friday April 27
Welcome to the Friday’s edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
One day after we missed in a can’t miss spot with Clayton Kershaw versus the Marlins we got two slates of troll jobs as the Yankee bats were stifled on the early slate by Kyle Gibson and on the Main Slate, just as everyone expected, Kyle Hendricks was the SP to own while Chris Sale, Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer all failed to meet expectations. Variance is going to happen in MLB DFS and it is important to remember there is no such thing as a safe play but conversely do not go into these slates thinking that every ace is going to get shelled and that stacking the bottom of the Arizona order is the way to take down a GPP – although this is the second time in a week that Jarrod Dyson and his “home run power” have won people some big money. Embrace the variance but stick to your process.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Starting Pitcher Overview:
After two straight days of getting burned by the top end aces like Kershaw and Sale, let’s see how many people shy away from paying up at pitcher now especially on a slate like this where we have a handful of elite arms to choose from. There are three arms right at the top we are going to have to choose from if we want to pay up at SP with Corey Kluber ($24.9K), Jacob deGrom ($24.3K) and Stephen Strasburg ($21.5K).
So far this season all three are putting up their usual high K numbers with Kluber (27.4%), deGrom (31.5%) and Strasburg (27.1%) so there is obvious upside to paying up for one if not two of these arms tonight.
Kluber and Strasburg get the benefit of pitching at home and Kluber is the clear top dog in Vegas’s eyes as he steps to the mound as a -240 favorite and Seattle has the lowest implied total on the slate at 2.94. The one issue with Kluber I see is that he faces a dangerous Mariners line-up that also does not strike out much versus RHP, ranked 24th out of 30 MLB teams this year with a 20.1% K rate versus right-handed arms.
Strasburg is only a -140 favorite but he does take on an Arizona team that strikes out at the 5th highest mark against RHP with a 25% mark but I have gone down this road recently and been burned by the insane home run upside of Jarrod Dyson, Alex Avila and the rest of these annoying D Backs bats.
deGrom is the only arm of the three on the road but heads to an elite pitcher’s park in San Diego and will face a Padres team that strikes out at the highest rate in all of baseball versus RHP at 28.4%.
From a pure dollar/match-up perspective I think that Strasburg is my #1 option at pitcher as we can save a significant amount of money ($3K) while still capturing elite K upside we need from our starting pitching. I wonder how many people will let the Kershaw/Sale recency bias impact their decision-making on this slate and avoid the pitcher’s entirely but my gut reaction is to double-down and pay up for not only Strasburg but look to pair him with either Kluber/deGrom.
deGrom not only has the better K metrics this season but he also gets the best possible match-up with the highest strikeout team against RHP and they will potentially continue to be without Eric Hosmer who is away from the team due to a family medical issue. Kluber for as great as he is has to not only face a team that rarely strikes out but this Mariners line-up is loaded from 1-6 with dangerous bats and they are not a team I really am overly interested in picking on.
Recency bias is a very real thing in DFS and I am hopeful that everyone falls in love with the narrative that you should not pay up for pitching after getting burned by Kershaw/Sale and we could go a contrarian route paying up for both our pitching slots on this slate.
MLB DFS – Top Hitting Spots:
One of the reasons I think paying up for both arms in our line-ups is that frankly the offensive options on this slate are underwhelming with no real “must have” spots and not a single team is projected to score over 5 runs. Although Vegas may not be highlighting any huge spots for offense, there are a ton of simply bad pitchers on this slate and rather than focus on run totals, let’s spend our time looking at the arms we want to build against.
The Royals were the chalk Main Slate stack last night and outside of a Jorge Soler two run homer they let those who rostered them down and this is another spot where I will let recency bias drop the ownership where the chalk stack last night becomes un-owned the next night on a full slate.
Reynaldo Lopez is a low strikeout arm (17% over the last two seasons) who has trouble with the homerun ball against LHB (1.78 HR/9 versus LHB in his career) and will face some dangerous left-handed bats including Mike Moustakas ($8.4K) and Lucas Duda ($6.5K) in the heart of the Royals order. Not only does Lopez have a power problem but this season he has a massive walk problem as well with a 15% walk rate so there is stack potential here.
Now I expect people will shy away from the Royals after last night and they will see Lopez has a 1.50 ERA this season and may even opt to use Lopez against the Royals bats but the underlying metrics show regression is coming with a xFIP and SIERA of 5.00 this season which screams luck from every angle possible. Lopez does not possess elite ground ball stuff to generate double-plays (only a 35% GB rate) and his .175 BABIP tells me hitters are just hitting it right at fielder’s early on against Lopez. You could easily stack this up with the cheap top of the order bats like Jon Jay and Abraham Almonte who are priced under $6K each and hope the walk issues continue for Lopez and the regression begins tonight.
The White Sox were a team I pivoted to late yesterday on the Main Slate with Jakob Junis seeming to become overly popular and all the focus on the Royals bats and boy am I glad I did. This White Sox team just continues to hit and against a LHP in Danny Duffy who has a 12% walk rate this season and is giving up 1.7 HR/9 to right-handed batters, this could be a dangerous line-up for him to face. Duffy faced this White Sox team in his Opening Day start and things did not go well as he lasted only 4 innings and gave up 3 HR’s, 7 hits and 5 ER.
Matt Davidson ($6.3K) hit three bombs in that game and hit two yesterday so to say he feels under-priced today is a understatment and I will have a ton of Mr. Davidson on FantasyDraft as a result. Yoan Moncada ($8.2K) might be one of the hottest hitters in the game right now and keep an eye on if Jose Abreu ($8.4K) returns to the line-up tonight after missing yesterday with flu-like symptoms as his .273 ISO versus LHP leads all White-Sox batters over the last two seasons. This White Sox stack may be a go-to again for me tonight as they have the power upside and salary relief up and down the line-up that allows you to easily pay up for the arms of your choosing.
Two of my favorite value plays when the platoon advantage is right are both in that spot tonight as we get Enrique Hernandez ($6.8K) and Wilmer Flores ($6.8K) against lefties Derek Holland and Clayton Richard. My boy Wilmer has some serious BvP against Richard, going 2 for 5 with HR’s and makes for a great one-off play and the Dodgers righties are all in play for me with Holland on the mound as his Holland is giving up a .272 ISO to RHB this season so stacking Hernandez and someone like Chris Taylor is a viable path tonight.
Even though on the surface we do not have any stand out offensive spots, the pricing is really fair in this mid-tier against some suspect pitching options and it seems like I can build a roster fairly easily that captures power while still being able to pay up for the top arms on the board.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
More from FanSided
- Cardinals Rumors: Surprise extension, Dylan Carlson-Yankees link, Rays trade idea
- USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
- NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
- Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
- MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions
SP: Jacob deGrom ($24.3K)
SP: Stephen Strasburg ($21.5K)
IF: Yoan Moncada ($8.2K)
IF: Jose Abreu ($8.4K)
IF: Matt Davidson ($6.3K)
OF: Kike’ Hernandez ($6.8K)
OF: Chris Taylor ($7.3K)
OF: Austin Jackson ($4.5K)
UTIL: Wellington Castillo ($5.9K)
UTIL: Wilmer FLores ($6.8K)
Slate Overview: To me this slate is all about the top end pitching and recency bias be damned as I go right back to the well with elite strikeout arms against strikeout heavy teams. Listen, I get the variance day-to-day in MLB DFS but I refuse to let that cloud my judgement and on a night with three top-tier arms and not a whole lot of high dollar offenses I am interested in, I am happy to build my rosters around SP tonight and pick and choose my bats against a plethora of attackable arms. Good luck tonight all and stay tuned to my Twitter @2LockSports as I will lay out different thoughts on the slate as the day unfolds.
Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!