MLB DFS Standouts: April 27th
MLB DFS Standouts: April 27th
Tonight’s slate features 14 games, with Baltimore (5), Cleveland (5), Minnesota (4.9), Toronto (4.8), and Boston (4.8), holding the best projected team totals. With expensive pitchers like Corey Kluber and Jacob deGrom available, finding ways to save salary will be crucial for tonight’s slate. We’ll be aiming to highlight MLB DFS standouts from the perspective of batted ball data, line movement, batter splits, and stolen base upside.
MLB DFS Standouts: Batted Balls Stats
Lucas Duda – DK $3400, FD $2400
While Lucas Duda has struggled mightily at the plate in recent games, he is the perfect candidate for positive regression. Duda has underperformed relative to his salary for weeks now, but when looking at his batted ball data, his plate appearances haven’t been all that bad. In the last days, his batted ball distance is the same, his exit velocity is up 2 MPH, and his hard hit percentage is up 2%, over his yearly average. So while he clearly isn’t producing, this may be an opportunity to jump on board, at low ownership, at a low price, and before the positive regression occurs.
Batter Splits
Jose Martinez– DK $3600, FD $3600
Jose Martinez will face off against the lefty, Steven Brault. Martinez , a righty, is significantly better when facing left-handed pitching. He currently holds a .513 wOBA split (.168 better than when facing a righty) and a .453 ISO split (.282 better than when facing a righty).
Eddie Rosario – DK $3400, FD $2700
Eddie Rosario is another batter that could benefit from an advantageous matchup. Rosario will face the righty, Luis Castillo tonight. Rosario currently holds a wOBA split of .383 (.101 better than when facing a lefty) and an ISO split of .264 (.153 better than when facing a lefty).
More from FanSided
- Cardinals Rumors: Surprise extension, Dylan Carlson-Yankees link, Rays trade idea
- USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
- NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
- Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
- MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions
Line Movement
Jon Jay – DK $2900, FD $2600 – Salvador Perez – DK $3300, FD $3000
Kansas City couldn’t get much going offensively last night, but will be looking to bounce back as they face off against the White Sox again tonight. KC opened as a -120 favorite and with a game total of 8.5 runs. Since opening, the total has received some attention from bettors. The total now sits 9, a half of a run more than the opening number, of 8.5 runs. Reynaldo Lopez has the highest fly ball percentage on the slate tonight (48% over the last 12 months), and with favorable weather conditions, this could lead to a big night for the Royals’ batters.
Andrew Heaney – DK $ 4800, FD $6100 or Fading NYY Batters
Los Angeles will host the visiting New York Yankees, who opened as a -160 road favorite. Since opening, this number has moved down to where it currently sits at -139. In addition to the movement on the side, the total has also dropped. The total opened at 8.5 runs, but now sits at 8 runs. With LAA only receiving roughly 31% of the bets, and the under only receiving roughly 17% of the bets, this reverse line movement is something to monitor. Andrew Heaney would make for a low owned play in tournaments, but if you’re not feeling that bold, fading the Bronx bombers could also be an option.
Stolen Base Upside
Dee Gordon – DK $3700, FD $2800
Dee Gordon will draw a matchup against the righty, Corey Kluber. Gordon has stolen nine bags this season and may be able to add to his total tonight. Kluber is one of the most dominant pitchers in the game, but one of his flaws, is his inability to hold base runners. Kluber allowed 15 stolen bases last year (19th most) and a stolen base percentage of 75%.
Ender Inciarte – DK $3600, FD $3200
Ender Inciarte is another speedster that could be considered, if you’re looking for stolen base upside. Inciarte has swiped nine bags as well, and will draw a favorable matchup against righty, Aaron Nola. Nola allowed 21 stolen bases last year (4th most) and a stolen base percentage of 91%. The last time these two met, on 4/16/18, Inciarte recorded a stolen base.
Next: MLB DFS Picks and Pivots
Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests across all formats and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!