DraftKings NBA Picks April 28: Ride Davis even if Curry plays
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks April 28: Ride Davis even if Curry plays
Get used to these unbalanced slates now that the playoffs are here. Tonight we have Game 1 of the Western Conference semis, and a Game 7 in Beantown between the Bucks and Celtics. This is an exciting slate! Will it be for DFS purposes as well?
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The money line last night was a solid 251.75 DraftKings points. My lineup failed because of Korver and Kelly Oubre.
The winning lineup was actually up again to 352.75. He had two 70’s from Westbrook and Oladipo and got good value from Markieff Morris, Favors, and Steven Adams.
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Point Guards:
Best Bet:
Stephen Curry ($8,700): Curry went through a scrimmage on Friday, and if he isn’t sore about an hour before tipoff, he will likely make his return against the Pelicans. Obviously, the Warriors are a different team with him. I will approach this article as if Curry will play in a relatively limited capacity, say 25 minutes. If you see something come out before game time on his availability, change your build accordingly. This is where we really need late swap since the whole damn slate locks 3.5 hours before this game tips off. The chances of having anything concrete on Curry are slim to none. It is safer to either not play at all, or not play any Warriors. There is a lot of volatility here. If we operate as if Curry wont play then he does, our lineups are likely done for.
Honorable Mention:
Rajon Rondo ($7,500): Rondo had a huge series against Portland. He performed well against the Warriors this season, averaging 32.7 DraftKings points in the three games he played. I obviously like Rondo more if Curry is out, but even if Curry does play, I expect Rondo to be productive. He isn’t that much of a scorer anyway. Most of his value lies in his passing ability.
Terry Rozier ($6,600): Rozier has been solid all series long. Only once has he failed hit 30 DraftKings points, and he still got close. He is a strong mid level play if you are building a stud-less lineup. It’s very tempting since we don’t know what the status of Curry is.
Dark Horse:
Malcolm Brogdon ($4,500): There is risk attached with either Milwaukee guard, so I will go with the cheap one and hope for the best. Brogdon was better than Bledsoe in Game 6, and not just by a little bit. I don’t think he’ll start, but Brogdon is going to log a lot of minutes here in Game 7.
My pick: Brogdon(PG)
Shooting Guards:
Best Bet:
Jrue Holiday ($7,800): Holiday had a gaudy 43.1 DraftKings point average against the Warriors in the regular season. He was even better than advertised against Portland. If Holiday can up his production against the Warriors as well, he is a huge bargain at this price. I don’t think any of us will complain if Holiday “only” hits the 43 he averaged against Golden State in the regular season.
Honorable Mention:
Khris Middleton ($6,900): As is the case with most two game slates, there isn’t a lot to choose from. Middleton has been far under value in the last two games, but he hit is easily a few times in this series. The Bucks don’t rely on just one guy for offense, even though they look towards Giannis more than anyone else. If you are relying a scoring to hit value for a Bucks player, you carry a healthy amount of risk. Such is the case with Middleton.
Klay Thompson ($6,200): Thompson is one of the Warriors that you can probably play regardless of Curry’s status. Klay averaged 36.2 DraftKings points per game against the Pelicans in the regular season. If the Portland guards could have knocked down any shots, that would have been a very different series. We all know how dangerous Thompson can be when his shot is falling. I love the GPP upside here.
Dark Horses:
Marcus Smart ($4,600): The amount of court time that Smart gets cuts into the production of Jaylen Brown, but Smart’s defense added another element to the game. I would play Smart over Brown because at some point Smart’s shot will start falling. He’s not a huge part of the offense, but when that 4-16 turns into 8-16 from the floor, his output will increase significantly.
E’Twaun Moore ($3,900): Moore was big for the Pelicans in Game 4 some six days ago. Moore also averaged 22.7 DraftKings points per game on the Warriors this year as well. The Pelicans underwent a kind of an April facelift with Mirotic cracking the starting five. That has meant adjusted roles for the bench. However, for this price, you can’t really go wrong with Moore. He is going to play roughly half the game, and should hit value at the very least.
My pick: Holiday(SG), Thompson(G), Smart(UTIL)
Small Forwards:
Best Bet:
Kevin Durant ($9,700): KD averaged 50.3 DraftKings points per game in his three games against the Pelicans this year. All but one of those games included Curry on the court. There is decent potential here with Durant, but the upside isn’t nearly what you want when paying this much for a player. Both Giannis and Brow have far more upside.
Honorable Mention:
Jayson Tatum ($6,000): Tatum still has wild bouts of inconsistency, but he has put up a couple of nice games in this series. He has the upside you want for a GPP play, but his floor is much lower than most, even on this slate.
Jabari Parker ($5,600): The Bucks have been riding Parker lately with good reason. The team finally realized that they are much better with him in there. Parker isn’t going to see huge minutes or the vast shot selection that Giannis does, but he is nearly half the price. There is a ton of value potential here.
Dark Horse:
Andre Iguodala ($4,000): Honestly, Iguodala’s upside went away about two or three games ago despite the fact that he started at point guard. However, the production we saw from him at the end of the San Antonio series is about what we can expect here. Iggy will be close to 5x value as an integral part of the second unit. He just really has no upside now.
My pick: Parker(SF)
Power Forwards:
Best Bet:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,100): Boston has tried many ways to slow down Giannis this series with little success. The only thing that slowed down the Freak was some foul trouble in Game 3. Other than that, he has been his normal 40 to 50 point self. He even put up 60 facing elimination on Thursday. He is still a strong bet to hit 5x value tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Draymond Green ($7,700): After a quiet Game 1, Draymond dominated in the last three games of the series against the Spurs. The good part is that most of that domination was on the boards. However, if Curry is the lineup, there is no way that Green gets double digit shots like he has in the last two games. He stands to lose the most upside if Curry returns. Still, Green averaged 38.3 DraftKings points against the Pelicans this year, which is almost exactly 5x value.
Nikola Mirotic ($7,400): Mirotic only faced the Warriors once this year. He put up 50.5 DraftKings points in that game. After seeing the series that he had against Portland, and the big end to the regular season, Mirotic almost looks like a bargain here. I expect a big series from Mirotic. It starts tonight.
Dark Horse:
David West ($3,300): West provided size when the Warriors needed it against the Spurs. His services will likely be needed even more against the monstrous Pelicans. West isn’t going to provide much from a fantasy perspective, but he always seems to hang around value. He is a solid punt play if you are going to try and use both Giannis and A.D.
My pick: Mirotic(PF)
Center
Best Bet:
Anthony Davis ($11,100): Davis averaged 64.2 DraftKings points against the Warriors this season. That means that Brow produced even when Cousins was in there against the Warriors. The Champs are going to have all kinds of issues with the size of Davis. If you are only paying for one stud, it should be Davis.
Honorable Mention:
Al Horford ($6,700): Horford, after an up and down first three games, has been strong in the last three for Boston. He has averaged 38.4 DraftKings points in games 4-6. I would expect about the same kind of output from Horford here tonight. Horford willed the Celtics to victory in Game 5. Will he be the catalyst for Game 7 as well?
Dark Horses:
Thon Maker ($3,800): Maker was strong in Game 3, the first game without Henson for the Bucks. Since then, Boston has held him to 40.25 DraftKings points in three games. Maker’s lack of offensive ability is a huge issue here, but the Bucks need his length and his defense on the floor. Maker is a decent play, but there is a lot of risk here.
Zaza Pachulia ($2,700): The Warriors used Pachulia more against the Pelicans than most teams during the regular season. This resulted in Pachulia averaging 20 minutes and 22.6 DraftKing points per game against New Orleans in the regular season. There is solid potential here since his price is so low.
My pick: Davis(F), Pachulia(C)
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