DraftKings NBA Picks April 29: Can LeBron come up big in Game 7?

Get used to these unbalanced slates now that the playoffs are here. Tonight we have Game 1 of the other Western Conference semis, and a Game 7 in Cleveland between the Cavs and Pacers. We know who to build around, but where to do we go after that?

Point Guards:

Best Bet:

Chris Paul ($7,800): Paul had a disappointing series clincher against Minnesota, but there is a ton of potential against Utah. First off, Paul averaged 51.1 DraftKings points in three games this year against the Jazz. Utah shut down Harden, but not Paul this year. On top of that, Ricky Rubio is out, so Paul will likely be facing a backup. Enjoy Paul at the lower price. It may not last long.

Honorable Mention:

Darren Collison ($5,100): Collison has turned in four good games in this series, but also two that were under 12 DraftKings points. One of those was in Cleveland in Game 5. Collison needs to come up big for Indiana to have any chance here.

Dark Horses:

Cory Joseph ($3,600): Joseph has turned in back to back games of more than 20 DraftKings points. His play with the second unit has been outstanding lately. Surprisingly, Joseph’s priced didn’t go up after Game 6 again. That is going to make Joseph a preferred value play at a weaker position.

Alec Burks ($3,400): Burks came up big in the series finale against the Thunder when Rubio went down. I don’t know that Burks will start this game, but he will definitely play a high amount of minutes off the bench. Burks put up 15.75 DraftKings points in 17 minutes on Friday. I would expect the output and the minutes to increase some tonight.

My pick: Collison(PG), Burks(G), Joseph(UTIL)

HOUSTON, TX – APRIL 25: James Harden #13 of the Houston Rockets reacts in the second half during Game Five of the first round of the 2018 NBA Playoffs against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Toyota Center on April 25, 2018 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images) /

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden ($10,800): Okay, so Harden struggling is still better than most people period. Harden did average 57.3 DraftKings points in four games against Utah this season. If he does that today, Harden will still hit a little over 5x value. It’s going to be really hard to get he and LeBron in the same lineup, but if you get creative with value picks, and they are out there, it can be done.

Donovan Mitchell ($8,900): Mitchell’s low output in the series against the Thunder was 38.5 DraftKings points. That is an incredible floor for a rookie that has taken over the postseason for Utah. Mitchell also came up big when Rubio went down in Game 6 against the Thunder. Expect that trend to continue tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Victor Oladipo ($8,700): Oladipo put up his first postseason triple double in the Game 6 thrashing of Cleveland. The Pacers have not only held their own in this series, but they have pushed the Cavs to the brink in all three of their losses. Two of Indiana’s wins were blowouts. Oladipo needs to have just as big of a game in Cleveland for Indiana to pull the upset. Can he do it again?

Dark Horses:

Bojan Bogdanovic ($4,900): Bogdanovic has seen his output decrease in each of the last three games after a monster Game 3. The upside on Bogdanovic is huge as you can see from his 37.5 DraftKings points output in Game 3. He has been unable to recapture the magic since then due in no small part to poor shooting. If Bogie can get his shot to fall, he has plenty of upside.

Eric Gordon ($4,800): Gordon put up a 30.9 DraftKings point average in three games against the Jazz this season. Houston ran a tight rotation for most of the season, so their postseason rotation hasn’t been much of a shock to DFS players. He showed up in the last three games against Minnesota, so Gordon could be in for a productive series.

My pick: Mitchell(SG)

SALT LAKE CITY, UT – APRIL 23: Official Bill Spooner #22 explains a foul call to Joe Ingles #2 of the Utah Jazz in the second half during Game Four of Round One of the 2018 NBA Playoffs against the Oklahoma City Thunder at Vivint Smart Home Arena on April 23, 2018 in Salt Lake City, Utah. The Jazz beat the Thunder 113-96.(Photo by Gene Sweeney Jr./Getty Images) /

Small Forwards:

Best Bet:

LeBron James ($12,100): LeBron, despite the inconsistency of his supporting cast, has still had a monster series. The only game that the King was under 60 was when he played only 31 minutes in the blowout loss in Game 6. This is Game 7, a time when the King has shined in his career. I’m expecting a big one here.

Honorable Mention:

Joe Ingles ($6,200): Ingles doesn’t have a ton of upside, but he is one of the most consistent players out there. Ingles survived two horrible games in the first two home games against the Thunder, but has averaged 33.2 DraftKings points per game over the last four. Unfortunately, Ingles only averaged 21 DraftKings points per game in four tries against Houston this year. There is some risk here.

Thaddeus Young ($5,400): Young has been up and down over the whole series. He had a couple of big games in Indy, but came up short in Cleveland in all three games there. He hasn’t hit value yet in Cleveland. That makes Young somewhat of a risk tonight. Young’s efficiency on offense has been great in this series, but he needs to get his rebounding back on track to hit value here.

Dark Horses:

Trevor Ariza ($4,500): Ariza brought a lot of offense to the Timberwolves in three of the last four games of that series. I would expect Ariza to put up decent numbers here as well, but Favors could cause some problems. You may want to see how Game 1 plays out before rolling Ariza out there in this series.

Kyle Korver ($4,300): Much like his teammates in Game 6, Korver had a horrible game in limited minutes. The fact that Korver sat down the stretch with the rest of the starters bodes well for his Game 7. Korver is going to start again, and I will be shocked if he doesn’t wind up at least in the 20’s for DraftKings points.

My pick: James(SF) Korver(F)

NEW YORK, NY – APRIL 09: Larry Nance Jr. #22 and Kevin Love #0 of the Cleveland Cavaliers react in the first half against the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden on April 9, 2018 in New York City. (Photo by Mike Lawrie/Getty Images) /

Power Forwards:

Best Bet:

Kevin Love ($6,500): It’s no secret that Love has had a poor series. It’s all over the media. Even LeBron quasi called him out on it. Love’s best game was in Game 1 at just 36.5 DraftKings points. That is well below par for Love. If Love can right the ship, Indiana will be in a lot of trouble. Does he have it in him?

Honorable Mention:

Derrick Favors ($5,800): Favors put up better numbers at a lower price than Kevin Love in round 1. Love only hit value once in the first six games against Indiana. However, the problem here is that Houston really shut down Favors this season. LIke Ariza, Favors may be too big of a risk to use in Game 1.

Jae Crowder ($4,700): Crowder had an awful game in Game 6 after a monster in Game 5. I’m not sure what to make of Crowder here, but unlike most of his teammates, Crowder put up 29.5 DraftKings points in his game against Houston this year. Crowder could be a nice value play here, but as you can see from round 1, there is plenty of risk involved.

Dark Horse:

Larry Nance ($3,900): Nance has been a solid bench contributor throughout the series, but still has not hit value. That said, if you need to go cheap, Nance is a sure 15 DraftKings points. There is some potential here for more, but don’t expect much with LeBron dominating the series.

My pick: N/A

ATLANTA, GA – NOVEMBER 03: Clint Capela #15 of the Houston Rockets dunks against the Atlanta Hawks at Philips Arena on November 3, 2017 in Atlanta, Georgia.(Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

Center

Best Bets:

Rudy Gobert ($7,200): Gobert came up big against Steven Adams in the first round, but he is going to have a much tougher go of it against Houston. The Rockets held Gobert to a 24.8 DraftKings point average in three games this season. Will the series against the Thunder give him the confidence he needs here?

Clint Capela ($6,900): Capela dominated Minnesota in the last two games of that series, putting up more than 45 DraftKings points in each game. Capela turned in a 35.6 DraftKings point average in three games against Utah this season. I would trust Capela far more than Gobert right now.

Honorable Mention:

Domantas Sabonis ($5,300): Sabonis has had three straight games of more than 25 DraftKings points. He still isn’t starting, but the energy that Sabonis has provided off the bench has revitalized the Pacers. I trust Sabonis more than Myles Turner right now despite him not starting.

Dark Horse:

Myles Turner ($4,600): Turner has been all over the board in this series, which makes him really hard to rely on. That said, Turner did hit value three times at this price in the series, but not since Game 4. That was when the rise of Sabonis began. That makes an already volatile option even more risky.

My pick: Sabonis(PF), Capela(C)

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