Is there any chance the Buffalo Sabres pass on Rasmus Dahlin at No. 1 overall?

Swedish defenseman Rasmus Dahlin enters the 2018 NHL Entry Draft as the top ranked skater available. But would Buffalo be better served taking a forward with the #1 pick?

Imagine this headline on June 22: With the first overall selection in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft, The Buffalo Sabres are proud to select (from the Barrie Colts of the Ontario Hockey League), forward Andrei Svechnikov.

It’s not that far-fetched. Coming off of a broken hand, Svechnikov put up 72 points in just 44 games (40 of those points were goals) during his rookie season in the OHL. The Russian power forward presents an intriguing possibility. For Jason Botterill to not seriously consider a Svechnikov-Eichel duo anchoring his first line for the next decade would be a disservice to the organization. Think Alex Ovechkin-Niklas Backstrom, but (dare I say) potentially even more effective — Eichel already averages more goals a year than Backstrom.

It’s not a secret that the Sabres could use more offensive punch. The team finished dead last in NHL scoring; the only team with under 200 goals in 82 games. Svechnikov provides a fast cure to one of their biggest deficiencies. 64 of his 72 points were primary points, highlighting the fact that he’s not a passive contributor and can very much drive the play.

https://twitter.com/NextOneHockey/status/916151151246168065

The general consensus with a high draft pick is that you should take the best skater available, regardless of position. I don’t necessarily subscribe to that theory, especially when there’s so little to give between two great prospects. Dahlin is the best defenseman, and Svechnikov is the best forward. If offense is your greatest positional deficiency, perhaps address that first.

Nicklas Lidstrom comparisons

Even the most passive hockey observers have heard the comparisons of Dahlin to Hall of Famer Nicklas Lidstrom. Erik Karlsson and Victor Hedman are other names that have been brought up in the same breath. Dahlin himself said he tries to mold his game after the high-scoring Ottawa stalwart. Let’s perhaps temper expectations.

In 2011, Adam Larsson was one of the most highly-touted Swedish D prospects in history. Tommy Boustedt, the Swedish hockey federation’s national director of development, had this to say about the young prospect:

"“He’s much better now than Lidstrom was at the same age…If he hadn’t played for our under-18 team in April he would have played on our men’s national team in May, he’s that good. I think he will be, in the end, one of the best defenders our country has ever produced.”"

A little research on the two during their respective draft years shows scouting reports that all say the same thing — the only flaw is their physical stature. This isn’t a knock on Dahlin for what he is or will be, but merely a more cautious view. It’s easy to fall in love with a prospect who’s been plastered on our TV screens all year. We shouldn’t allow our diagnosis bias to get in the way of careful consideration in what the proper selection at #1 should be.

Buffalo’s current top defensive prospect Brendan Guhle had his first extended shot at NHL action last year and performed very well. When he was called up in January, he had been tied for second in scoring among rookie defensemen in the AHL — not bad for his first pro year. He’s certainly not projected to be what Dahlin could be, but is developing quite nicely. With Rasmus Ristolainen solidifying himself, and healthy seasons from Bogosian and McCabe, it’s not like Buffalo’s blueline is in tatters. Does it serve them better to continue bolstering their blueline, or giving themselves help where they really need it?

Verdict

I’m not under any illusions. Jason Botterill will call Dahlin’s name first overall on June 22nd. Regardless of anything I’ve just written, people are generally predictable. It’s easy to play it safe and Rasmus Dahlin is the consensus No. 1 from every major scouting organization. If he does end up becoming what so many scouts believe he will be, the Sabres are due for a complete turnaround. I wouldn’t shed a tear for Carolina, though.

Agree? Disagree? Tell me on Twitter: @armstrongNHL