This Week in Stats: Arsenal’s away woes continue at United

Arsenal lost late on at United, two teams with similar stats had wildly different results and Southampton won to keep their survival hopes alive.

Many defining matches of the Arsene Wenger era have taken place at Old Trafford. His side won the title there in 2002, and won there on the way to his first title in 1998. However, they’ve also suffered embarrassing defeats, by scorelines such as 8-2 and 6-1, over the years.

This match was not as important, dramatic or one-sided as any of those encounters. It ended with a Marouane Fellaini winner, though, and left Arsenal as the only side in the top four tiers of English football without an away point in 2018. Ouch.

The young Gunners deserve credit for performing well overall. United only had three shots on target, and only two clear-cut chances. Even then, their two best opportunities occurred in the same passage of play; Alexis Sanchez’ shot was blocked before Paul Pogba tapped in the loose ball to give United the lead.

The Frenchman has had a strange season. He’s never far from the headlines, and seemingly in constant conflict with his manager, but six goals and 10 assists in the league isn’t a shabby return.

With his goal here, Pogba has now directly contributed to five goals in league games among the top six in 2017-18. Mohamed Salah, Leroy Sane, Roberto Firmino and Gabriel Jesus are the only players with more, so any talk of him not contributing is wildly exaggerated.

While Arsenal equalized through Henrikh Mkhitaryan in the second half, they should’ve been level before the break. Hector Bellerin sent in a cross, but Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang headed the Gunners only clear-cut chance at David de Gea.

The former Dortmund man is having a strange season in front of goal. His tally of 23 in league and Europe is decent enough, but only five have come away from home. Two of them were at the Bernabeu, but the others came at Brighton, and two of the Bundesliga’s bottom three teams.

It may just be random; Aubameyang was the top scorer of away goals in the Bundesliga last season, after all. But whomever Arsenal’s next manager is, he will need more goals on the road from the Gabon international.

The Wenger boys have long been accused of not having the bottle for away trips to the north of England. A last-minute winner from a giant Belgian blur of hair and elbows may emphasize that here, but Arsenal held United at bay for long stretches of the match. A similar performance in Madrid on Thursday may yet rescue Wenger’s final campaign.

Similar stats, wildly different outcomes

When reviewing Saturday’s expected goal (xG) figures on FiveThirtyEight, one thing stood out a mile. Two teams posted identical attacking figures, yet one stumbled to a dour draw while the other secured a handsome win. Only one match on Saturday or Sunday saw a bigger xG margin than the aforementioned stalemate did.

Figured out who we’re talking about yet? It’s Liverpool, who drew 0-0 with Stoke, and Crystal Palace, who thrashed Leicester 5-0. The Reds remain locked in a battle to secure Champions League qualification, while Palace virtually secured their Premier League status for another season. Talk about contrasting weekends, and from very similar attacking performances.

As much as their expected goal tallies were identical, we can’t say they had identical performances. Fewer higher value shots usually trumps a greater number of low quality opportunities, and Palace had 15 shots to Liverpool’s 20.

They also had a penalty, which the Reds might’ve had when Gini Wijnaldum’s cross struck Erik Pieters’ arm late on. But more crucially, Roy Hodgson’s side had six clear-cut chances, and eight shots on target. For Liverpool, those figures read two and two.

Had Salah converted a golden opportunity in the sixth minute, the Reds would surely have won. At Selhurst Park, Kelechi Iheanacho missed Leicester’s only big chance in the sixth minute, before Wilfried Zaha converted one to put Palace ahead. On such margins matches can end either 0-0 or 5-0.

Next: Five dark horse candidates to replace Arsene Wenger

Southampton hang on in there

Despite West Brom’s continued resurgence, the real winners at the bottom of the table this weekend were Southampton. Their win leaves the three teams above them within three points, and all have an inferior goal difference. The home side were hanging on at the end against Bournemouth, but the three points could yet prove invaluable.

It was a very close run thing. Bournemouth had more dangerous moments in-and-around the area, but Southampton had a higher value of expected goals. The shot tallies were level, with the visitors having one more shot on target but the Saints having an extra clear-cut chance.

Both teams scored one of their top quality chances, and both had one saved. You get the idea; this is a match that could’ve gone either way. Of all the key moments, Alex McCarthy’s save in stoppage time was undoubtedly the most important.

However, it needn’t have come to that. Around 25 minutes earlier, Shane Long and Charlie Austin missed clear-cut chances in quick succession, and a Bournemouth side with little to play for may not have come back from 3-1 down. Thankfully for Mark Hughes, the misses didn’t prove costly, but they easily could have.

Southampton travel to Everton next, and host Manchester City on the final day of 2017-18. But it’s their trip to Swansea, who sit a point above them, which will likely define both teams’ seasons.