DraftKings MLB Picks May 1: Is Scherzer better than Kershaw tonight?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings MLB Picks May 1: Is Scherzer better than Kershaw tonight?
Mayday! Mayday! We have 14 games in the main DraftKings tournament. Again, the Rangers and Indians are playing an hour before most of the other first pitches, so DraftKings has that only available in showdown mode. We still have a lot of great options. There are five pitchers priced at $10,800 or more. We need to find some value to roster at least one of them.
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The only real chance of rain is in Minneapolis, but wind is in play all over. There is a decent wind blowing out to right in Citi Field and blowing out again to left center at Wrigley, this time at 18-20 mph. The wind is also blowing out to left in Houston and St. Louis, though not as brisk. There is a good breeze blowing out to right in Arizona as well. You also have a Wrigley type breeze blowing out to dead center in San Francisco. The only deterring wind is a 16mph breeze blowing in from right in Detroit.
We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!
These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. Stacking against a bad pitcher is always a good idea!
For you first time players, if you would like a free $20 in DraftKings dollars, use this link for the referral bonus with your first deposit of $5 or more! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn those DraftKings dollars into more!
Next: DraftKings Pitcher Plays
Top Tier:
Max Scherzer ($12,700): As you may expect, Scherzer has dominated the Pirates. They are only hitting .213 against Scherzer with one homer and three runs in 47 at bats to go with 17 strikeouts. Those are huge strikeout numbers. That makes Scherzer likely worth every penny tonight, but it also means high ownership.
Clayton Kershaw ($11,900): Kershaw has almost looked human a couple of times this year. The Diamondbacks are only hitting .187 against Kershaw in 182 at bats with five homers and 15 runs to go with 56 strikeouts. The bad news? Kershaw has been human at Chase Field. In 13 career starts there, Kershaw is 5-8 with a 3.70 ERA. Those aren’t bad numbers, but compared to the rest of his career numbers, they are.
Justin Verlander ($11,700): Despite all his time in the American League, the current Yankees only have 61 at bats against Verlander. They are hitting only .213 off of him, but they do have three homers and six runs. However, Verlander has racked up 19 strikeouts. That’s a huge total, almost matching what Scherzer has done to the Pirates.
Middle Tier:
Sean Newcomb ($7,600): Newcomb doesn’t have flashy numbers, but the Mets only have four runs off of him in 57 at bats despite the solid .246 average and have not hit a home run. Also, Newcomb struck out 15 of those 57, which is a pretty high rate in this price range. Oh, and the Braves are hitting .377 off of Thor in the same amount of at bats with just 12 strikeouts.
Tyson Ross ($7,200): The Giants are hitting a strong .273 against Ross in 128 at bats, but they only have one homer and 11 runs to go with 32 strikeouts. That isn’t as high of a strikeout total as you would like, but the Giants offense doesn’t strike fear into anyone. Ross has made a living out of avoiding damage against the Giants. He should again tonight.
Felix Hernandez ($6,600): Felix hasn’t been the pitcher he once was for a couple of years now. Despite that, the current A’s are still only hitting .188 against Felix with eight homers and 15 runs in 192 at bats. The 47 strikeouts is very low, but for this price against a struggling pitcher on the other side, there is enough upside to roll Felix out there tonight.
Bargain Pitchers:
Kyle Gibson ($6,500): Gibson has held the Jays to a .207 average in 58 at bats with two homers, six runs, and 11 strikeouts. Gibson has never been a big strikeout guy, so these totals are beyond what he usually provides. We saw Gibson dominate the Yankees in Yankee Stadium his last time out. There is potential here against the Blue Jays with Donaldson still out.
Nick Tropeano ($6,400): Tropeano has only faced the Orioles once, but he shut them out through six innings in that start while striking out six. Baltimore is a decent offense, so there is risk here. However, Tropeano is a decent option if you are looking to save money. And the win is his against Alex Cobb so long as Tropeano can last five innings.
Matt Boyd ($5,700): Boyd had a rough start in Pittsburgh his last time out, but before that, he hadn’t allowed more than one run in any of the previous three starts. There is potential here against a Rays team that struggles to get production out of the offense. Boyd isn’t a high strikeout guy, but he should turn in a good enough outing for the price against Tampa.
Andrew Suarez ($5,400): Suarez was solid in his debut back on April 10th against Arizona, still picking up 13.2 DraftKings points in spite of the loss. There is a lot of potential here at home against a San Diego team ravaged by injuries. Don’t expect huge numbers, but Suarez could sniff 20 DraftKings points.
Top Tier:
Joey Votto is heating up, and he is 3-9 with seven walks, two doubles, three runs, and a RBI off of Chase Anderson. If Devin Mesoraco gets the start behind the plate, he is 1-2 with a walk and a solo homer against Anderson. Tucker Barnhart is 2-6 with a double an three RBI, so any catcher for the Reds is in play.
Freddie Freeman is 5-12 with a double, a triple, a homer, and four RBI in his career against Noah Syndergaard. The Braves have hit Thor hard, but I don’t trust it enough to stack against him.
Nolan Arenado is 5-19(.263) with a walk, a homer, four runs, and two RBI in his career against Kyle Hendricks. Ian Desmond is just 2-11, but he does have a homer and three RBI.
This could be a night to stack Dodger lefties against Matt Koch. Arizona is a hitter’s park, after all. That stack has to start with Cody Bellinger. Joc Pederson is worth a look as well.
Middle Tier:
Ryan Zimmerman is 2-3 with a double and two RBI already against Chad Kuhl. With Anthony Rendon still out, Wilmer Difo should start again at third. He is 1-2 with a two run homer against Kuhl.
You wont find Paul Goldschmidt in this tier very often. You do tonight, but Goldy is 11-49(.224) with four walks, two doubles, three homers, six runs, and nine RBI in his career against Kershaw.
Normally I don’t recommend Moose against lefties, but He is 8-28(.286) with a walk, a double, a solo homer, and four runs scored off of Chris Sale. Salvador Perez is worth a look as well. Perez is 17-60(.283) with a walk, three doubles, a homer, two runs, and two RBI off of Sale.
The Marlins don’t have a lot to offer in the way off offense, but J.T. Realmuto is worth a look against Zac Eflin, who is making his 2018 debut. Starlin Castro is worth a look as well.
Maikel Franco has a triple, a homer, and two RBI in just four at bats against Jarlin Garcia so far. Carlos Santana is worth a look here as well.
Brandon Belt is 8-19(.421) with four walks, three doubles, two runs, a steal, and four RBI in his career against Tyson Ross. Nick Hundley is worth a look since he is 3-7 with a walk, a triple, and a run.
Albert Pujols is 7-12 with a double, a homer, a steal, three runs, and four RBI in his career against Alex Cobb. Luis Valbuena‘s only hit in three at bats against Cobb is a solo homer.
Brian McCann is 2-3 with a homer and three RBI against Jordan Montgomery. Yuli Gurriel is 1-2 with a two run homer off of Montgomery so far.
If Miguel Cabrera is in the lineup for Detroit, he should be for us as well. Miggy is 7-18(.389) with three walks, a double, two homers, four runs, and six RBI in his career against Chris Archer.
Yadier Molina is 2-5 with a walk, a double, a homer, two runs, and four RBI in his career against James Shields. Matt Carpenter is 3-4 with three walks, a double, two runs, and a RBI. Stacking Cardinals against Shields is going to be a popular place to build tonight.
Bargain Shoppers:
Just like most of the league, the Brewers have hit Homer Bailey hard. It starts with Manny Pina, who is 4-7 with two homers and four RBI against Bailey so far.
Wellington Castillo is one of the few White Sox that has faced Michael Wacha. Castillo is only 2-8 against Wacha, but he has a walk, a homer, and three RBI.
The Twins have hammered Marco Estrada. Well, mostly just one of them. Logan Morrison is 8-21(.381) with two doubles, a triple, three homers, a steal, six runs, and 10 RBI in his career against Estrada. I would feel a whole lot better about this if Morrison weren’t struggling so badly right now. Joe Mauer is 6-21(.286) with a walk, a run, and four RBI against Estrada.
Wilmer Flores is 4-6 with a run and a RBI off of Sean Newcomb so far, but I’m not sure you want to waste 1B on Flores tonight.
Top Tier:
Ozzie Albies is 1-3 with a solo homer against Noah Syndergaard so far in his career. Dansby Swanson is 4-8 with a steal, two runs, and a RBI against Thor.
Carlos Correa is 4-6 with a homer and two RBI in his career against Jordan Montgomery already. Jose Altuve? He’s just 1-6 against Montgomery.
The Cubs have smoked Jon Gray as well. Of course, that didn’t mean much last night. Still, Javier Baez is perfect against Gray so far with a single, a double, a homer, and two RBI off of Gray. He is worth a look at the very least.
Didi Gregorius is 2-6 with three walks, a double, and a solo homer against Justin Verlander.
I shouldn’t need to tell you why Manny Machado is a good option tonight. He has six homers and 12 RBI over the last ten games.
Middle Tier:
Cesar Hernandez is 3-5 with a walk, a double, two steals, a run, and a RBI in his career against Jarlin Garcia so far. It’s just icing on the cake that he leads off for a team that could score a lot of runs tonight.
Robinson Cano is 3-5 with three walks, a homer, three runs, and two RBI in his career against Andrew Triggs. Dee Gordon is 1-3 with a double, so he would fit in a Mariners stack.
Eduardo Escobar is 4-11 with two homers, four runs, and three run scored so far against Marco Estrada. Brian Dozier has scored four runs, but is just 5-21 with no counting stats besides a steal.
Whit Merrifield is 5-18(.278) with a walk, a double, a triple, three runs, and a RBI in his career against Chris Sale. Alcides Escobar is even cheaper and even better! Alcides is 24-70(.343) with three walks, three doubles, a homer, three steals, five runs, and two RBI against Sale.
Marcus Semien is 10-31(.323) with a walk, four homers, seven runs, and five RBI in his career against Felix Hernandez. Jed Lowrie is only 12-50, but he has two homers and five RBI.
Bargain Shoppers:
Jose Iglesias is 4-11 with a walk and three runs against Chris Archer so far. Archer is good enough that I wont stack against him, but there are a couple of good standalone plays.
Adam Frazier is about the only Pirate with any sort of success against Max Scherzer. Frazier is 2-5 off of him with a walk, two doubles, and a run. And Frazier comes cheap enough to be a decent punt play here.
Chris Owings could be a sneaky play tonight. Owings is 6-26(.231) with a walk, two doubles, a triple, three runs, and two RBI in his career against Clayton Kershaw.
Next: Top Outfield Plays
Top Tier:
Ryan Braun is 16-47(.340) with three walks, four doubles, four homers, three steals, six runs, and nine RBI in his career against Homer Bailey. Lorenzo Cain is 3-5 with a walk, two doubles, a steal, and a run against Bailey. Christian Yelich is worth a look as well. Yelich is 2-7 with two walks, a double, a steal, two runs, and a RBI off of Homer.
Charlie Blackmon is 4-14 with two walks, three runs, and two RBI against Kyle Hendricks so far. Carlos Gonzalez is 5-17(.294) with a walk, two doubles, a homer, two runs, and three RBI against Hendricks. David Dahl is worth a look as well. Dahl is 2-3 with a solo homer off of Hendricks already.
Mike Trout is 7-12 with two walks, two homers, a steal, four runs, and four RBI in his career against Alex Cobb.
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Middle Tier:
Nelson Cruz looks too cheap against Andrew Triggs. Cruz is 3-5 with two walks, two homers, three runs, and four RBI against Triggs already. Mitch Haniger is also 3-5, but he only has a run and a RBI.
If Leonys Martin is a go for the Tigers, he is worth a look. Martin is 3-7 with a double, a triple, a steal, a run, and two RBI against Chris Archer.
It certainly seems like Kevin Pillar is hitting everyone lately. Pillar is 3-10 with two walks, a double, a solo homer, and three runs in his career against Kyle Gibson so far. We could see more of that tonight.
David Peralta is 3-11 with a walk, a double, and a solo homer so far against Clayton Kershaw. Peralta is a decent option if you think Kershaw is going to get knocked around a little tonight.
Bargain Shoppers:
If Nick Williams is in the lineup, he may even be worth a look against lefty Jarlin Garcia. Williams is 2-4 with a triple, a homer, and five RBI against Garcia so far.
Brett Gardner comes really cheap tonight, and he is 7-26(.269) with three walks, a homer, a steal, four runs, and two RBI against Justin Verlander.
Next: MLB DFS Picks and Pivots
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball, along with our PGA picks. Still in NBA mode? No worries, we have the NBA DFS covered for the playoffs as well!