MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Tuesday May 1
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Remember when Monday’s MLB DFS slate was going to be an offensive explosion centered around the Cubs and Rockies with hurricane force winds blowing out to left field? Well after a 3-2 Cubs win, I think we can safely say the industry may have overreacted to the wind just a tad as the initial Vegas projection that the Red Sox were the top stack actually panned out pretty well with 10 runs scored behind big night from Xander Boegarts and Mitch Moreland.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Starting Pitching Overview:
Holy pitching Batman. Let’s just quickly run down the options we have tonight – Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw and Noah Syndergaard so yeah to say we have some elite pitching on this slate is a bit of a understatment.
If we sort through this top-tier the only one that has an opponent I am simply looking to stay away from is Verlander as he takes on the Yankees – could he have an elite outing like Charlie Morton did last night? Sure he could, but with so many other aces on the hill I simply see no reason to take that risk.
Max Scherzer ($24.9K) is the top arm on this slate price wise and his 38% K rate on the season is second in all of baseball behind only Gerrit Cole. Now the match-up with the Pirates on paper seems like a poor one for K upside as they strike out at only an 18.4% rate on the season versus RHP so there may be a cap on the upside for Mad Max tonight due to the low K rate of the opposition. It is worth noting he has faced similarly low strikeout teams multiple times this season as the Braves (20.8%), Reds (20.9%) and Dodgers (21.7%) are all slightly above the Pirates and Max still struck out 9+ in three of those four match-ups.
Noah Syndergaard ($21.2K) not only gets a low strikeout team in the Braves as they strike out at only a 20% clip against RHP this season but with the addition of Ronald Acuna Jr. to this line-up, honestly I just don’t think this is a team I want to necessarily pick on.
It may seem crazy to be this picky and simpyl skip over Max and Thor but when you have this many aces I think you can afford to point out the reasons NOT to play them more than we would on a normal slate.
Chris Sale ($23.9K) and Clayton Kershaw ($22.8K) are the two arms I am finding myself anchoring to at first glance as they get top 10 match-ups for strikeouts with teams that have struggled against left-handed pitching this season. Sale will take on a Royals team that strikes out at a 25.6% clip (10th highest in baseball) while Kershaw will take on an Arizona team striking out at the 5th highest mark in baseball (26.1%).
Listen, all of these arms are incredible plays and would it surprise you if any one of these arms mentioned ends up as the top pitcher on the slate? For that reason, I think paying up for BOTH starting pitcher spots on two pitcher sites is a viable strategy. Could you go high/low with a cheaper mid-tier arm? Sure but before you simply default to that strategy I think locking in two of the top arms and then moving to see what bats you can build around may be the best place to start in your roster build. It is not often we get this many elite K arms and I am simply not willing to entertain a play at pitcher tonight if I do not think they have double-digit K upside. This is not a night to get cute at pitcher in my opinion and with so many studs available the ownership will be spread out more than usual – take advantage lock in two of the top arms and get to your hitter selection.
MLB DFS – Top Hitting Spots:
If we are paying up for two starting pitchers tonight then our bats are going to have to check off two boxes – are they cheap and do they have upside? The one team that simply jumped out to me at first glance with that in mind was the Minnesota Twins who will take on Marco Estrada and the Blue Jays. Estrada is a reverse splits fly ball pitcher with a low K rate so say hello to Brian Dozier ($8.3K) as my one “expensive bat” as the reality is, there is simply too much value with the rest of the Twins bats to leave the best one out tonight.
Look at the rest of the pricing on the Twins heart of the projected order – Eduardo Escobar ($7.7K), Eddie Rosario ($6.3K), Max Kepler ($6.4K) and Logan Morrison ($6K). Now I know I said Estrada is a reverse splits arm but that is really meant to show how effective RHB have been against him as his numbers against lefties the last two seasons are far from elite with a 1.5 HR/9 rate last season and a .197 ISO to left-handed batters over the last two years. Every single batter I have listed off on the Minnesota side has an ISO of .200 or great the last two seasons versus RHP and Vegas is seeing all the same things as the Twins have a 5.2 implied run total which is the second highest mark on the Main Slate as of this writing. If you like BvP there is some serious data to love here as well – LoMo is 5 for 10 with 2 HR’s against Estrada in the last two years while Escobar is 2 for 5 with 2 HR’s. Love love love this stack tonight was with Sano out everyone gets bumped up in the line-up and the prices are just super cheap against a home run prone arm.
The other spot that jumped out at first glance tonight was Oakland as I think we are now at the point where Felix Hernandez becomes an arm to attack aggressively each time out. King Felix has given up a .200 ISO to hitters from both sides of the plate the last two seasons with elevated hard contact and HR/9 rates and this season lefties in particular have hit him really hard to the tune of a 2.45 HR/9 rate and .275 ISO. Matt Joyce ($5.6K) and Matt Olson ($7.2K) make for a great cost-effective mini-stack here to attack the splits of Hernandez as both players have .250+ ISO rates against RHP over the last two seasons.
Overall one thing to note – the temperatures are really warming up now and we should see the ball start to fly out of some of these parks so make sure you check the weather each day as a first stop in your DFS research. Almost across the board tonight we have great hitting weather and it looks like we have another day with warm temperatures and 17 MPH winds blowing out at Wrigley. I want to keep an eye on the buzz here today after it let everyone down on Monday – could it actually be a sneaky GPP game stack as a result?
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
More from FanSided
- Cardinals Rumors: Surprise extension, Dylan Carlson-Yankees link, Rays trade idea
- USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
- NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
- Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
- MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions
SP: Chris Sale ($23.9K)
SP: Clayton Kershaw ($22.8K)
IF: Brian Dozier ($8.3K)
IF: Eduardo Escobar ($7.7K)
IF: Matt Olson ($7.2K)
OF: Eddie Rosario ($6.3K)
OF: Max Kepler ($6.4K)
OF: Matt Joyce ($5.6K)
UTIL: Logan Morrison ($6K)
UTIL: Wilmer Flores ($5.8K)
Slate Overview – This slate is all about pitching and finding a way, in my opinion, to lock in two of the top arms on the slate. You can mix and match any of the combination of Max, Thor, Kershaw and Sale but the key is going to be finding the bats to make it work. At first glance the match-up and pricing lead me to the Twins and the A’s lefties as their price points combined with their power upside makes them a solid stacking core around the elite arms here tonight. Enjoy this slate – it is a good one but hey be ready for a slate in the coming days where our best pitcher is going to be BAD because with this many aces all on the same day we can guarantee some ugly days ahead!
Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!