Ranking the Rookies – Fantasy Football Impact of The NFL Draft

Which Rookies Should You Roster in 2018 Fantasy Football?

The NFL draft has slowly become primetime television over the last few years as fans have gotten their chance to hope and pray their team will snag the next Carson Wentz or Alvin Kamara in the first few rounds. As the landscape of the league has changed dramatically, so has the rookie production from a fantasy standpoint. Last year we saw a draft class full of impactful rookie RB’s that carried teams to fantasy football championships, including a few that didn’t have their names called until the second and third day. This year appears to be a bit more top-heavy, but there’s certainly talent to be found. Let’s take a look at who will benefit the most from a fantasy standpoint.

5. D.J Moore – WR, Carolina Panthers 

Few people who spent time covering Moore in college or during the combine can deny his talent as a pass catcher. Moore has the athleticism and route running ability to make any team better, but unless something changes drastically before the season starts, he’ll be a bit handcuffed by who’s under center.

Cam has had issues with his accuracy since he came into the league but has remained a fantasy star based on his ability to use his legs. The issue with this particular pairing is one that plagues quite a few marriages nationwide – a distinct lack of size . Moore projects well as a prospect, but there’s not much he can do to change the fact that he’s just barely six feet tall and he will be catching passes from a quarterback that misses his mark more times than not and consistently overthrows his guys. Cam ranked 28th in the league last season in completion percentage, behind the likes of Andy Dalton, Blake Bortles and Mitch Trubisky.

We’ve really only seen one Fantasy relevant pass catcher in Carolina (excluding the RB core), and that was Kelvin Benjamin; who is the polar opposite of Moore physically. The potential is always there with a player like Moore, but if this experiment is anything like Curtis Samuels, I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Fantasy Football – Two Stud Running Backs from the NFL Draft:

4. Bradley Chubb – RB, Cleveland Browns

Chubb walks into an offense that will have a completely new identity, so being certain of anything is not an easy task. Crowell is out while Landry, Tyrod, and Carlos Hyde are in. Chubb will share a depth chart with a couple of fragile running backs who have never done a great job of sustaining heavy workloads, so he will get the chance to show off some of the talent we saw at Georgia.

Even if he’s just a two down back who surrenders snaps to Hyde and Duke Johnson, he will have a shot at taking a lead role on a team that is looking for consistency offensively. He’s never been a prolific pass catcher so expecting workhorse value is a bit of a reach, but I can certainly see him being someone to take a chance on if you don’t land one of the early round studs.

The biggest question mark for the team as a whole is how Todd Haley will impact the new look offense. There will be an opportunity for all the newcomers in Cleveland, including one for Chubb to take over the backfield.

3. Saquon Barkley – RB, New York Giants

The fantasy community seems more than ready to crown Barkley as the next breakout rookie and some are prepared to take him in the first or second round of this years drafts. Consider me one of the people in the ‘pump the brakes’ camp. Barkley is poised to be a focal point of the Giant offense and will likely have a RB3 floor based on volume alone, but I think taking him in the first round would be a mistake.

Barkley will open up a lot of things on the Giants offense, which makes me lean towards pushing OBJ to the top of the heap instead of Barkley, since Saquon is simply too good for a defense to ignore. The issue lies with the NYG team as a whole. Calling their offensive line below average would be a compliment, and I think Barkley suffers because of it.

One of my ‘ten commandments of fantasy football’ (full list coming before draft season), is that scheme trumps talent every single time. The Giants roster isn’t built for RB success, even with someone as talented as Barkley.

Here’s some bar trivia for you: When was the last time the Giants had a top twenty fantasy RB on their roster?…… Ahmad Bradshaw in 2012. The last time they had one in the top ten? Tiki Barber in ’06. Barkley will buck one of these trends, but taking him in the first round will be a mistake.

2. Calvin Ridley – WR, Atlanta Falcons

I’m interested to see how this one plays out over the summer, because there has been some strange things going on with Julio Jones‘ social media accounts that indicate it’s not a lock for him to be back this season. I think he will be on the field per usual, but either way this means Ridley landed in a pretty good spot.

If the unthinkable happens and Julio actually calls it quits, there’s an obvious hole to fill through either free agency, or with Calvin Ridley. If Julio ends up playing, then Ridley will see a lot of single coverages and opportunities to stretch the field.

Matt Ryan has been looking for a second target for a while now since Mohamed Sanu spends most of his time out of the slot. Ridley should have some opportunities downfield to produce right out of the gates for your fantasy teams.

Rookie WR’s haven’t faired well in the last few seasons so I’d only roster him if he’s a very late pick or left on waivers, but keep an eye on how he progresses through the preseason and he might have some flex value come week one.

1. Sony Michel – RB, New England Patriots

Michel landed in one of the most frustrating backfields for fantasy football, but he also stepped into an opportunity to produce immediately. New England is very careful about how much draft capital they spend on offensive players, and taking a running back in the first round speaks volumes as to what they think about his talent.

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He will be replacing Dion Lewis and sharing a backfield with Rex Burkhead, Jeremy Hill and Mike Gillislee. Burkhead is one of my favorite players going into this season, but Michel also reminds me quite a bit of Shady Mccoy in the way he runs and his versatility as a pass catcher. Burkhead isn’t going anywhere, but he’s not the kind of player who will dominate a backfield alone.

Someone has to fill the void left by Lewis, and my money is on a first round rookie over two players that have made most of their money in goal line situations and have bounced from team to team since 2014.

Michel will be a PPR sleeper this season, and based on value alone I’d happily take him in a later round over someone like Barkley.  I think he ends up on some championship rosters this season…. Make sure one of them is yours.

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