Carlos Santana: A buy-low slugger to target in fantasy

Overreaction is a trait endemic within the fantasy baseball world. Use it to your advantage to trade for Carlos Santana who is not hitting like the player that was drafted in the top 100.

The signing of the former Indians’ first baseman by the Phillies during the offseason was a sensational move. Carlos Santana is one of the most disciplined hitters in the game with exceptional control of the strike zone.

Over the last four years, only Santana and Joey Votto have walked more than 400 times. During this period, Santana has 103 home runs, 122 doubles and 336 RBI. All three stats are higher than Votto’s.

The Dominican is an on-base machine and, despite this slow start to the season, he is already walking at a career-high rate of 17.3 percent and is one of only a handful of players with more walks than strikeouts.

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The knock against Santana is that he is a batting average drain. Although .250 AVG over the last three seasons is not a significant hit on your batting average. Last year, the batting average across the league was .255 AVG.

This year, however, the 32-year-old is killing batting averages, which opens up the possibility of a buy-low opportunity. No-one wants his .151 AVG knocking them out of contention after just one month of the season.

Everything points to a dramatic improvement over the next five months. His BABIP is at an unsustainably low level of .163.

BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) is the sabermetric statistic that helps remove luck from batting average. It takes away some of the inaccuracies you get from a blooped single being valued more highly than a screaming line drive which was brilliantly caught by the third baseman.

Anyway, Santana’s BABIP is not only the lowest in the league; it is 100 points lower than his average for the last three season. Even Rougned Odor, who had the lowest BABIP last season, posted .224.

There is no doubt that Santana will see a big improvement to his batting average, and the rest of his counting stats should follow.

He is continuing to hit the ball hard and is putting up more fly balls than before; they just are not going over the fence. The 4.4 percent HR/FB rate is well below anything that is reasonably expected.

Santana has recently been moved from second to fifth in the lineup in an attempt to kick-start his production. He has more than 1,000 career plate appearances as the No.5 hitter with .866 OPS. That is the player you should expect to see for the rest of the season.

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There could be a panicking owner in your league. Pounce now before Santana turns it around. He is never very good in the first couple of months, but every season he finishes with elite production.

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