DraftKings MLB Picks May 4: Should we play Pujols on 3,000 night?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings MLB Picks May 4: Should we play Pujols on 3,000 night?
We have a full slate for the first time this season! All 15 games start at 6:05 eastern or after. How do we attack this one? There are only four pitchers with five digit price tags, and not all of them are in favorable situations. We will also try to uncover some value here so you can buy homers and chase the extra FPP’s available for baseball this year. If you are trying to get the bonus points for playing the league, feel free to invite me. I’m trying to find one with 99 players as well to cross that one off the list.
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There is a chance of rain in Yankee Stadium, which affects one of my favorite stacks. The wind is also blowing out to right, so there is going to be significant lineup restructuring if this game is rained out.
Rain could also affect the crosstown game between the Mets and Rockies. However, the biggest threat of a postponement is in Monterrey, Mexico where the Padres and Dodgers are facing off. The only games affected by winds are in New York and Washington where 16 mph winds will be blowing out to left in both New York Stadium and to right in D.C.
We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!
These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. Stacking against a bad pitcher is always a good idea!
For you first time players, if you would like a free $20 in DraftKings dollars, use this link for the referral bonus with your first deposit of $5 or more! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn those DraftKings dollars into more!
Next: DraftKings Pitcher Plays
Top Tier:
Gerrit Cole ($12,400): Cole has been superb so far this year, but the Diamondbacks are hitting .260 off of him in 73 at bats. However, they have not hit a home run and have only five runs to go with 16 strikeouts. Oh, and Cole has a 1.84 ERA in two career starts at Chase Field. The stars are aligning for another strong start for Cole.
Rick Porcello ($10,800): Porcello has been outstanding this year, posting a 4-0 record with a 2.23 ERA. His stats against the Rangers aren’t great, but he hasn’t allowed a home run to a current Ranger in 75 at bats, and if he can avoid Choo, there is a good chance that he comes away with a quality start at worst. There is quite a bit of potential considering Porcello has struck out 17 of those 75.
Gio Gonzalez ($10,200): Gonzalez has held the current Phillies to a horrendous .161 average in 93 at bats with only one homer and three runs to go with 26 strikeouts. Yeah Mike, but he’s playing in a noted hitter’s park! Well, Gonzalez is 6-4 with a 2.62 ERA in 13 career starts in Citizens Bank Park. There are bigger names out there, but Gonzalez could turn in an outing to rival anyone’s tonight.
Middle Tier:
Jose Berrios ($9,800): Berrios has absolutely dominated the White Sox in his career, holding them to a .108 average in 83 at bats with only one homer and three runs with a staggering 39 strikeouts. 39! That is one strikeout for every 2.2 at bats! I’m all over Berrios tonight for this price. It’s almost criminal that his price is this low.
Junior Guerra ($7,400): The Pirates are only hitting .230 against Guerra in 61 at bats with two homers and only four runs to go with 13 strikeouts. Those are very solid totals for the price. The most unlikely pitcher’s duel of the night could be in Milwaukee. Both pitchers have the potential to turn in nice totals for their price.
Francisco Liriano ($7,000): The current Royals are only hitting .200 against Liriano in 150 at bats with just two homers, nine runs, and 31 strikeouts. Liriano is looking pretty good this year, and has a 3.74 ERA in eight career starts at Kauffman Stadium. There is good potential here.
Bargain Pitchers:
Nick Kingham ($6,800): Kingham had an impressive major league debut, allowing just one hit and striking out nine Cardinals. Now he gets a Brewers team that is without major power threat with Eric Thames already out and Travis Shaw and Ryan Braun both toting a questionable tag. It is worth rolling with Kingham against the Brewers at a bargain basement price.
CC Sabathia ($6,500): The Tribe are only hitting .218 against Sabathia is 188 career at bats with only two homers, 16 runs, and 46 strikeouts. Don’t expect huge numbers here. CC is not the same pitcher of old. However, he is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA this year, and is virtually guaranteed a win against Josh Tomlin. You can do much worse for a bargain pitcher. I expect CC to turn in his third consecutive outing of 20 DraftKings points or more.
Sal Romano ($6,300): Romano has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of the last three starts, so he may be trending in the right direction. However, he calls a dangerous hitter’s park home and doesn’t notch many strikeouts. He is a solid bet for a win against Wei-Yin Chen tonight though.
German Marquez ($6,200): Marquez made short work of the Mets in his only career start against them, allowing only a solo homer to Cespedes in six innings of work. Marquez also boasts a 1.59 ERA in three road starts this season. There is solid potential here, even though his offense could struggle to support him. Marquez has more strikeout potential than most at this level.
Bartolo Colon ($4,800): Some may see this as punting on third down, but the current Red Sox are only hitting .206 against Big Sexy with ten strikeouts in 34 at bats. Colon has a nice 2.87 ERA this year, but he doesn’t go deep into games anymore. You aren’t going to get the extra points for a win here, but you can get any batter you want if you use Colon tonight.
Top Tier:
The Yankees have very little experience against Josh Tomlin, but this is still one of my favorite stacks of the night. Tomlin carries an ugly 9.64 ERA into Yankee Stadium. Enough said. Gary Sanchez is the stack anchor.
Jose Ramirez is 4-8 against CC Sabathia with a pair of RBI. If you are looking for the homers for Cleveland off of Sabathia, there are only two. They are by Jason Kipnis and Yan Gomes, but the two are just 3-18 in their careers against Sabathia. Edwin Encarnacion may be worth a look, but at his price and without elite stats, you can likely do better. Edwin is a solid 15-55(.273) with four walks, four doubles, four runs, and a steal against Sabathia in his career.
Wei-Yin Chen is making his season debut for the Marlins tonight, so you know what that means: Reds stack! It starts with the Big Red, Joey Votto. Eugenio Suarez looks like a nice play as well.
The Rays and their bullpen days can get aggravating, but it may as well be batting practice for Josh Donaldson. Heeeeeeeeeee’s back! Yangervis Solarte had a big doubleheader yesterday, and is a great pick here as well.
Stacking Cubs lefties against Miles Mikolas could be a good play. However, Mikolas has a 3.27 ERA on the season, but he hasn’t faced a lot of power like Rizzo has. I like Rizzo tonight.
Miguel Cabrera is 6-19(.316) with four walks, two doubles, a triple, a homer, three runs, and three RBI in his career against Ian Kennedy. Kennedy has struggled to open the year, and the Tigers should be able to capitalize on that.
Middle Tier:
Ryan Zimmerman is 4-6 with a double, a homer, and three RBI in his career against Nick Pivetta. Just make sure that he is in the lineup with Matt Adams playing so well lately.
I don’t usually make a habit of playing Marlins, but there is some talent on this team. Most notably catcher J.T. Realmuto. He mans a weaker position and is facing a somewhat shaky pitcher in a hitter’s park. Starlin Castro is worth a look as well.
Both Matt Duffy and C.J. Cron hit lefties much better. Duffy is 3-7 with a homer and three RBI in his career against J.A. Happ. Cron is only 2-12, but he has a homer and two RBI. The Rays have got to Happ just enough to give me pause about using him tonight. So is the nasty 6.27 ERA in eight career starts at the Trop.
The Giants have hit Mike Foltynewicz very well so far to the tune of a .377 average in 61 at bats with nine homers and 18 runs. Brandon Belt is 5-12 with a double, a homer, three runs, and four RBI in his career against Foltynewicz. Buster Posey is 2-6 against Foltynewicz. Both hits are home runs and he has driven in four. Even Nick Hundley has got in on the act. Hundley is 5-12 with a homer and four RBI off of Foltynewicz.
A couple or Royals have managed a little success against Francisco Liriano. Salvador Perez is 4-10 with a walk, a double, a homer, and two RBI against Liriano.
The Dodgers aren’t long on right handed power to throw at Joey Lucchesi, but Yasmani Grandal is definitely worth a look.
Albert Pujols is likely going to become the 32nd member of the 3,000 hit club tonight against Mike Leake. Pujols is 4-11 with two walks, a run, and a RBI so far against Leake.
Bargain Shoppers:
If you are homer hunting, Josh Bell is only 2-7 against Junior Guerra, but he has hit a homer off of him. Francisco Cervelli has also homered off of Guerra, but it is his only hit in eight at bats against him.
Mike Zunino is 6-10 with a double, a homer, three runs, and four RBi in his career against Garrett Richards. Kyle Seager is also worth a look. Seager is 10-35(.286) with two walks, a double, two runs, and two RBI in his career against Richards.
Yolmer Sanchez has the only home run for the White Sox against Jose Berrios, but he is just 3-13 in his career against Berrios. Yes, that includes the time as a rookie when nearly the whole league beat up on Berrios.
It’s that dang Logan Morrison again. However, Morrison has showed signs of heating up over the last two games when he had favorable stats against that night’s pitcher. Last night LoMo had three hits, including a home run, against the White Sox. He is worth taking a chance on now since he is showing signs of life at the plate.
Ian Desmond is the only current Rockie to hit a home run against Zack Wheeler so far. Desmond is 5-17(.294) with three walks, a double, a homer, four runs, a steal, and three RBI against Wheeler in his career. However, playing any Rockie on the road can be a risk.
Top Tier:
Somehow Francisco Lindor is 5-9 with a walk, a double, two runs, and a RBI against CC Sabathia. Apparently no one told him to respect his elders.
Trea Turner is only 1-5 in his career against Nick Pivetta, but the hit is a two run home run.
Didi Gregorius is also a must add to a Yankee stack or as a standalone against tomato can Josh Tomlin.
The Orioles aren’t worth stacking right now, but Manny Machado remained hot, driving in two more last night. I like Macahdo against Daniel Mengden. The only others I may consider are lefties Chris Davis and Pedro Alvarez.
Kris Medlen is back in the majors. His reward? A date with the Astros. The Astros are worth stacking here, starting with Correa and Altuve.
Brian Dozier is 2-3 with two homers and four RBI already against Carson Fulmer. Newly minted Gregorio Petit is also a great cheap play. There are a lot of Twins worth stacking here.
Middle Tier:
Jose Peraza is worth a look due to his batting at or near the top of the order, and a questionable lefty taking the hill against him.
Dee Gordon is 5-10 with a walk, a double, two steals, a run, and a RBI against Garrett Richards. Robinson Cano is 7-25(.280) with two walks, two doubles, a triple, and two runs off of Richards.
Paul DeJong is 2-4 with a walk and a solo homer so far against Jose Quintana. The Cardinals have had some success against lefties, but Quintana does have a 1.59 ERA in two career starts at Busch Stadium.
Andrelton Simmons is 7-18(.389) with two doubles and a solo homer off of Mike Leake.
The only Phillie that I am even considering against Gio Gonzalez tonight is Cesar Hernandez. Hernandez is 7-30(.233) with three walks, a solo homer, and four runs in his career against Gonzalez. Still, you can likely do better for the money.
Bargain Shoppers:
Brandon Crawford could be an absolute steal at $2,800. He is 6-12 with a walk, a double, three homers, and four RBI in his career against Mike Foltynewicz.
Freddy Galvis is 5-12 with a double, a homer, two steals, and three RBI in his career against Kenta Maeda.
Chris Owings is 4-9 with two walks, three doubles, two runs, and a RBI in his career against Gerrit Cole.
Lefty killer Kike Hernandez will take his talents south of the border against a young San Diego lefty. He is worth a look here in a stadium that could play for more power. That is, if the game is played.
Next: Top Outfield Plays
Top Tier:
You can only have four Yankees total, so Judge and Stanton polish off the Yankee stack. The only one to truly avoid is Brett Gardner, who is just 2-13 lifetime against Josh Tomlin.
You can only use four players from one team, so if you are using Correa and Altuve, that only leaves you two Astros slots left. One is reserved for George Springer. The other would have to go to Brian McCann or Josh Reddick.
Kyle Schwarber is a nice play for the Cubs against Miles MIkolas. I’m not going a full blown stack, but the inflated stats on Mikolas have been racked up against the Brewers twice, the Reds twice, and the Pirates. This is the toughest team Mikolas has faced thus far.
You probably should stack Angels tonight. The struggling Mike Leake is allowing a .302 average to them. Mike Trout is 2-6 with a walk, a double, and a run so far. Justin Upton has far more fireworks. Upton is 9-20 with a walk, a double, a triple, a homer, five runs, and three RBI in his career against Mike Leake.
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Middle Tier:
It’s tough to play any Reds outfielder right now because they are all struggling. However, the power of Adam Duvall can’t be denied, and the speed of Billy Hamilton is intoxicating. So is their dream matchup against Wei-Yin Chen making his season debut in Cincy.
Not many Pirates have hit Junior Guerra well, but Starling Marte is the exception. Marte is 5-11 with two walks, two doubles, and a run off of Guerra so far.
David Peralta is worth a look tonight. Peralta is 4-6 with three doubles, two runs, and a RBI against Gerrit Cole.
Yoenis Cespedes hit a solo homer in his only game against German Marquez in his career.
I wont lie. Teoscar Hernandez and Curtis Granderson are looking pretty good against the Rays bullpen. So is Kevin Pillar.
It’s that Shin-Soo Choo guy again. Choo is 13-46(.283) with four walks, six doubles, four runs, and six RBI in his career against Rick Porcello. The rest of the team is just 6-29(.207).
Dexter Fowler is 5-13 with three walks, a double, a homer, two runs, and four RBI in his career against Jose Quintana.
Matt Kemp and Chris Taylor are worth a look with a lefty on the mound. I plan on only deploying them as lineup filling standalones, but a stack could be in order. The weather does have me a little worried though.
Bargain Shoppers:
Manuel Margot is off to a slow start so far, but he is 4-10 with a double, a homer, two runs, and three RBI in his career against Kenta Maeda.
Matt Joyce is 3-7 with a walk and two solo homers in his career against Andrew Cashner. Khris Davis is 4-12, but he only has two RBI to show for it. I would rather saves some coin and use Joyce.
If you are looking for cheap production, Alex Gordon is worth a look. Gordon is 8-32 with five walks, four doubles, five runs, two steals, and a RBI in his career off of Francisco Liriano.
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball, along with our PGA picks. Still in NBA mode? No worries, we have the NBA DFS covered for the playoffs as well!