DraftKings NBA Picks May 4: Is Durant a better value than Harden?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks May 4: Is Durant a better value than Harden?
Get used to these unbalanced slates now that the playoffs are here. Tonight we have Game 3 between the Warriors and Pelicans and Game 3 between the Rockets and Jazz. There isn’t as much value here as there is in the East with Boston’s injuries and Toronto’s deep rotations.
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The money line was at 268 last night. I was in the money most of the night until a subpar night from Korver and Baynes proved to be too much. I missed by a couple of points.
The winning lineup was at 334.75. They built around LeBron and Love and got huge value from Covington, Redick, and Marcus Smart.
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Point Guards:
Best Bet:
Stephen Curry ($8,700): Curry came off the bench in Game 2, and he still racked up 45.25 DraftKings points in 27 minutes. With Curry back in the starting lineup for Game 3, he could have even more of an impact on the game. His price seems very low for what Curry is capable of.
Honorable Mention:
Chris Paul ($7,400): Paul has 76.75 DraftKings points over the first two games of this series, which puts him a shade above 5x value. He was well over 40 against the Jazz during the regular season, so it’s quite possible that Paul could come up with bigger numbers in this series. That may be tough as they move to Utah though. At any rate, Paul is a very solid play at this price, but I think Rondo has more upside.
Rajon Rondo ($7,300): Rondo followed up his strong Game 1 with a huge Game 2 in which he put up 58.25 DraftKings points. It was a strong effort by the Pelicans after a horrible Game 1 from most of the team. This is a must win game for the Pelicans. Expect Rondo to come up big again.
Dark Horses:
Ricky Rubio ($5,600): It was originally reported that Rubio could miss up to ten days with his hamstring injury. He suffered the injury eight days ago. Utah has offered no insight into Rubio’s status for Game 3, and this game starts 2.5 hours after the full lineups lock (I know….we’re spoiled because baseball has late swap). There is a lot of risk involved with Rubio because I’m guessing we wont have the official word one way or the other. If Rubio is a go though, he is priced way too low if he is not on a minutes limit.
Alec Burks ($4,200): Unfortunately, the uncertainty of Rubio means that Burks will probably be too much of a risk as well. If Rubio is out, Burks is a must play. He has 53.5 DraftKings points over the first two games of this series. I want to say that Rubio wont play, but this is the playoffs. Utah is going to try to get him back out there as soon as possible. If Rubio plays, Burks wont be much of a factor.
My pick: Rondo(PG), Curry(G), Burks(SG)
Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
James Harden ($10,800): Harden has turned in back to back big games in the series with 127 DraftKings points combined. Beard is definitely worth the money. Utah can’t stop him. Even though Harden was only 9-22 from the field in Game 2, he still picked up over 60 DraftKings points.
Donovan Mitchell ($8,300): It has been slightly tougher sledding for Mitchell against Houston than it was against the Thunder. Still, Mitchell bounced back from an off night in Game 1 to put up 44.75 DraftKings points in Game 2. However, Mitchell did it with passing, picking up a career high 11 assists. Mitchell is just 15-43 from the floor in the first two games of this series. If his shot starts falling, look out!
Honorable Mention:
Jrue Holiday ($7,600): Holiday bounced back nicely from a rough Game 1, putting up 50 DraftKings points in Game 2. The Pelicans only spent one minute without Holiday on the court in Game 2. He is a force on this team, and is always a threat to drop 50. Especially now that this series has moved back to New Orleans. Expect another big game from Holiday here.
Klay Thompson ($5,900): Thompson’s huge Game 1 was quickly forgotten with a miserable 4-20 performance in Game 2. He was about the only Warrior that could miss. A bounceback is likely, and Holiday’s priced plummeted $700. Thompson could end up being a huge bargain tonight.
Dark Horses:
Eric Gordon ($4,400): The Rockets run a tight rotation, and Gordon is comfortably in it. Game 1 against Utah was the only game in which he had taken less than 12 shots in the entire playoffs. The opportunities are there, and Gordon usually gets around 6x value for this price.
E’Twaun Moore ($4,100): Moore’s minutes were back up in the mid 30’s for Game 2, and he produced a little over 5x value. Just like he does every game. There isn’t a lot of upside with Moore, but he is a strong value play just because of the amount of minutes he gets.
My pick: N/A
Small Forwards:
Best Bet:
Kevin Durant ($9,300): Durant put up another 50+ DraftKings point game in Game 1, and followed that up with 57 in Game 2, even with Curry back. Durant is still the alpha of this team, and he has stepped up in the playoffs. With Durant throwing mid-50’s around lately, it almost isn’t worth the extra $1,500 for Harden’s 60’s.
Honorable Mention:
joe Ingles ($5,700): Ingles turned in another strong game in Game 2. Even with Ariza guarding him, Ingles is still hitting a lot of shots. He hit 10-13 in Game 2 in what many viewed as an unlikely Utah win. Look for Ingles to put up another strong game as this heads back to Utah.
Jae Crowder ($4,700): Crowder has had two strong games to kick off the Houston series with 65.75 DraftKings points over the two games. That comes out to Harden-like numbers for a total of $9,400 over the two games. Crowder should continue to be a good value in this series. He is the type of player that Utah needs in this matchup with Houston.
Dark Horses:
Andre Iguodala ($4,500): Iguodala still found a way to stay relevant in Game 2 with Curry back. In fact, he turned in his best game in over a month! Iggy’s versatility will keep him on the court enough to hit value. What we saw from the Pelicans in Game 2 is likely going to be the pace at which these games are played. They are going to be frenetic and high scoring, which is great for the fantasy prospects of most players in this game.
Royce O’Neale ($3,500): O’Neale has put up some solid numbers with Rubio out, but now that his price is up in this range, value is not longer a sure thing. There is too little reward for too much risk if Rubio’s status is not revealed before the lineups lock. You will have to look for value elsewhere.
My pick: Crowder(SF), Iguodala(F)
Power Forwards:
Best Bet:
Draymond Green ($8,200): Green was huge in Game 1, posting a triple double in just 30 minutes of court time. Green was nearly as effective in Game 2, coming up just one rebound shy of another triple double. You would be hard pressed to find a more consistent contributor across all categories than Green. He is a strong play once again against a Pelicans team that doesn’t really know what to do about him.
Honorable Mention:
Nikola Mirotic ($6,200): Mirotic’s price went down yet again even though he had a solid game in Game 2. I like Mirotic at this price point. He has only been under 6x value once in the entire playoffs if you go by this price point. Don’t expect numbers like Mirotic was putting up against Portland, but mid to high 30’s is likely.
Dark Horses:
David West ($3,600): Derrick Favors only has 34.25 DraftKings points combined in the first two games of the series, which is six points less than the output of David West over that same span. Save yourself the $1,400 and come out a little ahead in the value race by taking West instead.
Kevon Looney ($3,400): Looney’s output in the first two games is 40 DraftKings points even, so he is 0.25 points behind West if you need the extra $200. One could argue that Looney has more upside, but West’s minutes are a little more concrete.
My pick: Mirotic(PF), West(UTIL)
Center
Best Bet:
Anthony Davis ($10,700): The Pelicans stayed close in Game 2, and Davis’s minutes and production showed that. Davis dominated in the paint, racking up 62.25 DraftKings points. There are a couple of guys that are threats to hit 60 tonight, but Davis may be the most likely candidate to do so.
Honorable Mention:
Rudy Gobert ($7,000): Gobert bounced back from a tough Game 1 to put up 39 DraftKings points in Game 2. The only thing that really changed was Gobert’s defensive numbers. If Gobert can keep up his normally solid defensive stats, he will have no problems hitting value once again.
Clint Capela ($6,700): Capela has been over 6x value in four straight games now. It stands to reason that he can keep it up against Gobert and the Jazz here. Opponents have a tougher time in Utah though, so this may be the time to flip from Capela to Gobert, but I’m going to need that extra $300. If Gobert outscores Capela, it likely wont be by enough to make me regret my decision.
Dark Horse:
Ryan Anderson ($3,200): The drop after Capela is like that into the Marianas Trench. It is that drastic. Anders on is the only one down here with any kind of upside whatsoever, and I definitely don’t trust it. Anderson’s ability to hit outside shots are the only reason for his inclusion, but the rest of this team is so loaded with shooters that they don’t need to rely on Anderson anymore.
My pick: Davis(C)
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