It’s been raining on and off all day at the 2018 Kentucky Derby. Should the mud change your bet?
It’s a rainy Kentucky day at Churchill Downs, though that should come as no surprise. Nearly half of all Kentucky Derby races have been run on muddy tracks — it’s the far less glamorous tradition, up there with mint juleps and big hats.
In any case, besides perhaps making a less aesthetically pleasing race, what’s the impact of the rain on the race? Well, it turns odds and the race into an “off-track” race, but it doesn’t really change the favorites too much. In other words, you can still feel good about that bet on Justify.
Justify, the 3-1 favorite, is one of seven in the Derby field who has won on “sloppy” or “muddy” dirt conditions. Justify won the Santa Anita on March 11 under such conditions. Flameaway, who doesn’t really have a shot anyways at 46-1, does well on sloppy tracks too, 2-0 in races on wet dirt.
My Boy Jack (5-1) could see his upset chances increase thanks to his experience with mud, whereas Lone Sailor, a sneaky underdog pick, has also won one on mud.
Per Twinspires and as displayed by NBC, the complete list of odds for the 2018 Kentucky Derby is as follows:
"Justify (3-1)My Boy Jack (5-1)Mendelssohn (6-1)Audible (6-1)Bolt d’Oro (8-1)Good Magic (9-1)Magnum Moon (13-1)Vino Rosso (15-1)Lone Sailor (24-1)Hofburg (26-1)Free Drop Billy (43-1)Flameaway (46-1)Promises Fulfilled (48-1)Enticed (55-1)Noble Indy (59-1)Firenze Fire (61-1)Solomini (67-1)Bravazo (68-1)Combatant (77-1)Instilled Regard (99-1)"
For what it’s worth, Firenze Fire (61-1), Enticed (55-1) and Hofburg (26-1) also have experience — an even wins — on mud, though that’s unlikely to make the difference that defies the odds.
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