DraftKings NBA Picks May 6: Davis should dominate again

Get used to these unbalanced slates now that the playoffs are here. Tonight we have Game 4 between the Warriors and Pelicans and Game 4 between the Rockets and Jazz. There isn’t as much value here as there is in the East with Boston’s injuries and Toronto’s deep rotations.

Point Guards:

Best Bet:

Stephen Curry ($8,500): Curry hasn’t had a trademark big game yet. Most of the Warriors struggled on Friday as the Pelicans ran off with this one. Curry still hasn’t played 30 minutes yet, so it seems as though the staff is monitoring his minutes without admitting they are monitoring his minutes. That means they likely wont announce when they are no longer watching his minutes. Due to this, Curry is the ultimate risk/reward play. Fortunately, he gets very close to value even if he doesn’t hit 30 minutes.

Rajon Rondo ($8,000): Rondo has been an absolute monster in this series. He has put up 146.25 DraftKings points in the three games so far, which makes Rondo a little better than 6x value over the course of the series. Perhaps the most telling thing is that Rondo couldn’t buy a shot in Game 3, but he still got well over 6x value thanks to a franchise playoff record 21 assists.

Honorable Mention:

Chris Paul ($7,300): Paul is more the solid play here, but so far he has not had any upside in the series. Paul has been between 35 and 39 DraftKings points in all three games of this series. You know exactly what you are getting from Paul, which makes him a cash game staple. However, I would find a way to pay up for the top tier in GPP formats.

Dark Horses:

Ricky Rubio ($5,600): It was originally reported that Rubio could miss up to ten days with his hamstring injury. He suffered the injury ten days ago. Utah places Rubio’s chances of playing at 50-50. Once again, this is the late game with tipoff taking places 4.5 hours after contests lock. We likely wont have word in his status if Rubio truly is a 50-50 play. If we had late swap, it wouldn’t be a big deal. Since we don’t, I am off of Rubio unless I hear otherwise. If Rubio is a go though, he is priced way too low if he is not on a minutes limit.

Alec Burks ($4,200): Unfortunately, the uncertainty of Rubio means that Burks will probably be too much of a risk as well. If Rubio is out, Burks is a must play. However, I doubt we know for sure. That means there is way too much risk involved with Burks. He wont play enough to hit value if Rubio is back in full capacity.

My pick: Rondo(PG), Rubio(G)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden ($10,900): Harden has had a monster series. The only reason he missed 60 in Game 3 is because Harden played just 30 minutes in the dominant win. Harden still put up 56 DraftKings points. I expect Utah to put up more of a fight tonight, which means another 60+ DraftKings point game is a given for Harden.

Jrue Holiday ($7,900): Holiday has erased his awful Game 1 with two big performances since. Holiday has 95.75 DraftKings points over the last two games. The New Orleans guards have been amazing since Game 1. Both of them are worth paying the premium for, even against the Warriors.

Honorable Mention:

Donovan Mitchell ($7,800): It was a down game for Utah as a whole in Game 3, but Mitchell’s performance was especially troubling. He looked like a rookie. For the first time in months, Mitchell looked like a rookie. I expect a better game tonight, but Mitchell wont get back to his old tricks until he no longer has to run the point. He is much better with Rubio on the floor.

Klay Thompson ($6,200): Thompson got back on track after a terrible Game 2. I would expect Thompson to be right around 35-40 DraftKings points per game from here on out. Of course, there could be another off game mixed in there, but overall, Thompson is a strong value at this price.

Dark Horses:

Eric Gordon ($4,700): The Rockets run a tight rotation, and Gordon is comfortably in it. Game 1 against Utah was the only game in which he had taken less than 12 shots in the entire playoffs. The opportunities are there, and Gordon usually gets around 6x value for this price since he always plays 30 minutes. Gordon even played more minutes than Harden on Friday!

E’Twaun Moore ($4,000): Moore’s minutes were again in the mid 30’s, but his output was pedestrian at best. This is what we get from more. Tons of minutes, maybe 5x value. That said, it’s tough to find someone this cheap that produces with any kind of consistency. That alone makes Moore a solid value pick.

My pick: Gordon(SG)

Small Forwards:

Best Bet:

Kevin Durant ($9,000): The ownership on Durant could be down after a forgettable Game 3. Chances are that the Pelicans wont be able to shut down Durant again. That gives us a little bit of a price cut on Durant. Harden is the safer pick, but Durant might have the better potential for bang for your buck.

Honorable Mention:

joe Ingles ($5,400): Most Utah players had a bad Game 3. It was especially true for the outside shooters. The return or Rubio would increase the value of Mitchell and Ingles since they are at their best getting the ball and shooting it right away. Rubio’s status will have an effect on most Utah players.

Jae Crowder ($5,00): Like his teammates, Crowder was cold from the floor in Game 3. I tend to think that they all got it out of their system in the same game. I don’t think that Utah is capable of blowing out the Rockets like the Pelicans did the Warriors, but I do expect them to keep the game close. That means Crowder and Ingles should be back to their production of the first two games.

Dark Horses:

Andre Iguodala ($4,300): Iguodala was a big disappointment in Game 3. He only took four shots, which was his lowest total since Game 4 against the Spurs. That just highlights how volatile the production of the Warriors’ role players can be. Still, I expect Iggy to be back closer to the first couple of games than the last one.

Royce O’Neale ($3,800): O’Neale has put up some solid numbers with Rubio out, but now that his price is up in this range, value is no longer a sure thing. There is too little reward for too much risk if Rubio’s status is not revealed before the lineups lock. You will have to look for value elsewhere.

My pick: Ingles(SF), Crowder(F)

Power Forwards:

Best Bet:

Draymond Green ($8,100): While most of Green’s teammates posted numbers that were way under value, Green still posted 38.5 DraftKings points. While that was still under value, it was close enough that it wouldn’t single handedly destroy your lineup. Green has been huge in this series, and I don’t expect that to change. He has some of the best upside for his price anywhere on this slate.

Honorable Mention:

Nikola Mirotic ($6,500): Mirotic’s price edged back up, but it’s still not to the point that Mirotic wont easily hit value. The Pelicans have kept him from the big games that we saw in the Portland series, but Mirotic is basically a lock for 5x value.

Dark Horses:

Trevor Ariza ($4,000): Ariza hit value for the first time in the series in Game 3. In what was a great all around team effort, Ariza still barely hit 5x value. His upside is negligible most nights, but if Favors is out, I like Ariza more than usual.

Kevon Looney ($3,200): Looney’s output is far and away better than David West’s. Looney is the bargain forward to use for price relief in the Golden State frontcourt. Looney hasn’t been in single digits since Game 4 against the Spurs. West can’t say that.

My pick: Looney(PF)

Center

Best Bet:

Anthony Davis ($11,100): Davis dominated Game 3, putting up 44 points and 18 rebounds. The Warriors still can’t handle Davis. Their approach has been to attack the guards and just let Davis do what he does. That makes Davis a must play until the Warriors figure out how to slow him down. The only thing that has slowed Brow in this series was a blowout, and that barely accomplished the feat.

Honorable Mention:

Clint Capela ($7,000): Capela has been over 5x value in five straight games now. It stands to reason that he can keep it up against Gobert and the Jazz here. Capela has been a constant in this series, no matter what is going on on the perimeter. I expect capela to carve out another game in the high 30’s here again.

Rudy Gobert ($6,800): Gobert continues to put up decent numbers, but Capela’s are so much better than I can’t really think of any reason to move down to Gobert. Even the prospect of using both isn’t that appealing because you would likely have to fade a star to do it. Gobert is a decent option, but not when you compare him to Capela.

Dark Horse:

Ryan Anderson ($3,200): The drop after Capela is like that into the Marianas Trench. It is that drastic. Anderson is the only one down here with any kind of upside whatsoever, and I definitely don’t trust it. Anderson’s ability to hit outside shots are the only reason for his inclusion, but the rest of this team is so loaded with shooters that they don’t need to rely on Anderson anymore. Anderson rarely sees enough minutes to be a factor. He didn’t even in the blowout that was Game 3.

My pick: Davis(C), Capela(UTIL)

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