DraftKings NBA Picks May 7: You can’t fade LeBron

Get used to these unbalanced slates now that the playoffs are here. Tonight we have both Game 4’s of the Eastern conference semis. This is the same slate as on Saturday. Will the same players come through?

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Ben Simmons ($8,600): Simmons had his best game of the series in Game 3, but it still wasn’t enough as the Sixers literally gave this game away. Now that the price in Simmons is down to a more manageable number, he has the chance to hit value in an elimination game.

Terry Rozier ($8,200): Rozier was under value for the first time in a while in Game 3, but he still put up good all around numbers. His assists were a little down, which resulted in him having a lackluster game as far as us DFS players were concerned. Look for Rozier to have another strong game, but that doesn’t mean he will hit value at this price.

Honorable Mention:

Kyle Lowry ($8,000): Lowry turned in another game of 5x value or better in Game 3, his eighth straight. There is no reason not to play Lowry here, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Lowry was the highest scoring point guard again tonight. I would use him over Rozier for the lower price, but neither of them are a bad option.

Dark Horses:

George Hill ($3,900): Hill played 35 minutes again in Game 3, putting up a modest 17.75 DraftKings points in this one. There is potential here with the amount of minutes, but VanVleet is probably a better bet despite the limited minutes.

Fred VanVleet ($3,600): VanVleet had his worst game of the series in Game 3 despite entering the starting lineup. The Raptors haven’t determined whether VanVleet will start Game 4, but at the very least, VanVleet should have plenty of opportunities once again.

My pick: N/A

Shooting Guards:

Best Bet:

DeMar DeRozan ($7,500): DeRozan is about as inconsistent as they come. A good Game 1 was overshadowed by back to back bad games. He produced nothing other than scoring in Game 2 and only scored eight points in Game 3. He simply can’t be relied upon at this stage. However, he has the upside to throw a GPP dart.

Honorable Mention:

J.J. Redick ($5,900): After the horrid Game 5 in Miami, Redick has righted the ship again, racking up at least 5x value in each of the five games since. His shooting is one of the few things keeping Philly in this series. Redick still put up 18 points despite going cold from the field. The Sixers are going to need him to if they want a Game 5, so Redick is worth a look again.

Marcus Smart ($5,800): It really doesn’t matter what the rest of the Boston rotation is right now. Smart is going to be a huge part of the game plan because of his outstanding defense. Smart only hit one of seven from downtown in Game 3, which put a damper on his value. So did fouling out in regulation.

Dark Horse:

Marco Belinelli ($4,700): J.R. Smith was a complete disaster in Game 4, so the bottom of this pool got a lot harder to navigate. Belinelli picked up the slack with Redick being kind of off, turning in his best game since Game 3 against Miami. Smith could still be worth a look, but Belinelli is far less likely to put you in an insurmountable hole than Smith is.

My pick: N/A

Small Forwards:

Best Bet:

LeBron James ($12,100): LeBron had his worst game of the series in Game 3, and he still hit value. That’s how outstanding he has been against Toronto. Unlike the West where we don’t know which stud will step up, we don’t have that problem in the East. It’s LeBron. Then fill in the rest later.

Honorable Mention:

Jaylen Brown ($5,700): Brown had his best game since Game 4 of the Milwaukee series on Saturday. He put up 33.75 DraftKings points in that one, which put him well ahead of Smart in the Boston wing’s arms race. Will that be the case in Game 4? Good luck figuring it out.

Kyle Korver ($4,600): Korver is about as inconsistent as you can get. The Cavs are rotating a lot of wings in to shoot and even running LeBron at the point sometimes. This offense found its rhythm in the last couple of games. What this is going to mean going forward is inconsistent value for Smith, Hill, Korver, Hood, and Jordan Clarkson. That makes all of them hard to use, but any of them could come up big on any given night. It was Korver in Game 3. What about Game 4?

Dark Horses:

C.J. Miles ($3,500): Miles had his best game in over a month in the valiant effort in Game 3. The Raptors are going to need Miles again if they want to play in a Game 5. I still trust Miles more than anyone else in this tier.

OG Anunoby ($3,400): Anunoby had a huge game in Game 3 with 27 DraftKings points. That’s huge for him. I don’t think you will see another game like this from Anunoby, but a lot of people are going to use him hoping for a repeat. You should get 5x value out of OG, but that’s about it.

My pick: James(PG), Korver(SG), Miles(SF), Brown(G), Anunoby(F)

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Kevin Love ($7,800): Love has been dominant in the last two games. This is exactly what the Cavs envisioned when they traded for Love. How long will this keep up? If it’s for another month, then the Cavs are going to win the whole thing.

Al Horford ($7,300): It has been vintage Horford lately. He is hitting a large percentage of his shots, rebounding, and making some plays with the ball in his hands as well. Philly has had a hard time with Horford’s all around ability here in the series, but he has yet to parlay that into a huge game. That said, Horford is a lot more valuable to the Celtics than us in DFS circles.

Honorable Mention:

Jayson Tatum ($6,800): Tatum turned in his five straight game of 30+ DraftKings points, but his price is in such a spot that that wont even get him value. Tatum is really maturing in the playoffs, and in this series in particular. If he is going to keep playing like he is, this price is too cheap.

Dario Saric ($6,000): Saric finally topped the 30 DraftKings points plateau in Game 3, but just barely. Saric seems to be priced just right, but that means there is no upside to using him. What you do get is consistency. Saric has been between 28 and 31 DraftKings points in every game this series.

Dark Horse:

Marcus Morris ($5,100): Morris had another solid game in Game 3. You aren’t going to see a big game from Morris anytime soon, but what you will find is solid production. He isn’t quite as consistent as Saric, but money is at a premium when you build around LeBron.

Ersan Ilyasova ($5,000): Ilyasova came up big for the Sixers in Game 3. There were a whole lot of role players coming up large in pivotal games, but which ones can carry that over? Ilyasova is a solid bet since Embiid still needs to rest more than other minutes monsters.

My pick: Tatum(PF)

Center

Best Bet:

Joel Embiid ($9,800): Embiid is dominating Boston on the interior, and he played a season high 41 minutes in Game 3. You could see him begging to get back out there, and the coaching staff obliged. There is no reason at all not to trust Embiid. Boston can’t stop him.

Honorable Mention:

Jonas Valanciunas ($7,100): Valanciunas ate Cleveland alive in Game 1, racking up 52.25 DraftKings points in that game. He was equally solid in Game 2, putting up 37 DraftKings points. Now the price on Valanciunas is up to the point where he is no long a must-play option. I could see him hitting 50 again, but high 30’s is more likely. That still makes Valancuinas a solid value pick, even though he was somewhat disappointing in Game 3.

Dark Horses:

Serge Ibaka ($4,900): Ibaka has his best game since Game 2 against Washington. Did Ibaka figure something out? I don’t trust it, but Ibaka was certainly at his best in Game 3. The potential is still there.

Aron Baynes ($3,500): Baynes is starting, but that has only meant a combined 50 minutes in the first two games of the series. With Love playing well in the last two games, Tristan Thompson netted single digit DraftKings points, so center behind Jonas is a barren wasteland. You have to spend at least for Love tonight, which makes the lineup build somewhat difficult.

My pick: Embiid(C), Baynes(UTIL)

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