MLB DFS Picks – Standouts: May 7th
MLB DFS Picks – Standouts: May 7th
Tonight’s slate features seven games with New York (4.8), Cincinnati (4.8), Detroit (4.8), Texas (4.8), and Houston (4.7), holding the best projected team totals. Given the smaller slate, saving salary won’t be as imperative, however, finding players in optimal matchups will. We’ll be aiming to highlight MLB DFS picks from the perspective of batted ball data, line movement, batter splits, and stolen base upside.
MLB DFS Picks – Standouts: Batted Balls Stats
Aaron Altherr – DK $3900, FD $2500
Aaron Altherr could be one of the best value plays on FanDuel tonight, if he’s batting 5th or higher. Altherr is only $2500 on FanDuel and he’s been hitting the ball fairly well, of late. In the last 15 days, his batted ball distance is up 31 feet, his exit velocity is up 3 MPH, and his hard hit percentage is up 12%, over his yearly averages.
Batter Splits
Bryce Harper – DK $5900, FD $5400
If you have excess salary and are looking for a player in an advantageous matchup, consider Bryce Harper. Harper, a lefty, will face off against the right-handed pitcher, Tyson Ross. Harper currently holds a .439 wOBA split (.137 better than when facing a lefty) and a .333 ISO split (.197 better than when facing a lefty).
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Shin-Soo Choo – DK $3800, FD $3200
Shin-Soo Choo is another player in an enticing matchup, but at a cheaper price point. Choo will face the righty Michael Fulmer. Choo currently holds a .349 wOBA split (.030 better than when facing a lefty) and a .192 ISO split (.102 better than when facing a lefty).
Line Movement:
Andrew McCutchen – DK $4000, FD $3700 – Brandon Belt – DK $4100, FD $3800
San Francisco will be on the road tonight to face off against Zach Eflin and the Philadelphia Phillies. Philadelphia opened as a -120 favorite, but they have been bet down to their current price of -109. In addition to the small movement on the side, the total has also increased. The game total opened at 8.5 runs, but has bet up a half of a run to a total of 9 runs. While Eflin’s only start looked good on paper (6 innings pitched and 1 earned run), his batted ball stats indicate that he may be due to regress from his last start. If we compare Eflin to all of the other pitchers on the slate, over the course of the last 15 days, his batted ball distance is the third highest (228 feet), his exit velocity is the third highest (95 MPH), and his fly ball percentage is the highest (50%).
Stolen Base Upside:
Trea Turner – DK $4900, FD $4300
Trea Turner and the Nationals will face off against Tyson Ross tonight, which should favor some the Nats base runners. Over the course of 49 innings last year, Ross allowed 10 stolen bases, and a stolen base percentage of 100%. While he has been good this year, and only allowed three stolen bases over the course of 35.2 innings this year, a base runner like Trea Turner should get the better of this matchup on the base paths. Turner has recorded nine stolen bases for a total of .413 stolen bases per game.
Next: MLB DFS Picks and Pivots
Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!