DraftKings NBA Picks May 8: Will Brow help the Pelicans avoid elimination?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks May 8: Will Brow help the Pelicans avoid elimination?
With Cleveland sweeping Toronto in the Game 4 rout, there is a chance that this is our last NBA article of the season. They may put Game 5 between Philly and Boston in a tournament with one or both West games if the Pelicans or Jazz win tonight, but I refuse to play NBA tournaments with games spanning two days without late swap. I learned my lesson last year, and dozens of times throughout the regular season. If this is it, it has been a fun ride this year! Let’s finish with a bang!
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The money line was only at 235.75 last night. Putting Embiid and Jaylen Brown in my lineup, along with a five spot from OG, kept me from cashing.
The winning lineup was the lowest of the season at 299.25. He built around Simmongs and LeBron, and got huge value out of Saric and T.J. McConnell.
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Point Guards:
Best Bet:
Stephen Curry ($8,300): Curry hasn’t had a trademark big game yet. Most of the Warriors struggled on Friday as the Pelicans ran off with this one. Curry finally topped 30 minutes on Sunday, but he had by far the worst game since his return. Part of the problem is that Curry has no other counting stats. His assists are way down and turnovers are way up. That trend will change at some point, but will it be tonight?
Rajon Rondo ($7,900): Rondo came crashing back to earth on Sunday, mostly due to his poor shooting. The assists weren’t quite as high, but the rebounds are still there. I expect Rondo to come back with a good game. Maybe not back in the 50’s, but low 40’s is likely.
Honorable Mention:
Chris Paul ($7,600): Paul was the best point guard on Sunday by a large margin. He put up a playoff high 58.5 DraftKings points as he just tore Utah apart. Paul actually led the team in scoring with 27 points. It’s hard to pick which Rocket will go off since so many are capable of it. Paul is a solid pick though because even if he doesn’t have a monster game, Paul can still hit value with this manageable price.
Dark Horses:
Ian Clark ($3,500): Clark has 47.25 DraftKings points in the two games in New Orleans. Now that the series shifts back west, will Clark struggle again? I tend to think he can be somewhere in between, so I like Clark as a value pick. Alec Burks played just nine minutes on Sunday. I don’t trust that at all!
Raul Neto ($3,300): The Jazz went with Neto backing up Mitchell at the point with moderate success. Neto has 35.75 DraftKings points over the last two games. He has looked better than Burks, so I don’t see the Jazz moving off the veteran facing elimination. I’ll take Neto for value over Burks. At least the Jazz were kind enough to us DFS players to rule Rubio out already instead of the waiting game and unconfirmed status until after the first game tipped off.
My pick: Neto(PG), Clark(G)
Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
James Harden ($10,400): Harden had a modest Game 4 with CP3 going nuts. Harden still picked up 38 DraftKings points, but was mostly cold from the floor, shooting just 36%. Beard still provided his trademark numbers in every other category though, so he is worth spending on even if he comes up a little short. Harden has the ability to win you a GPP almost by himself.
Donovan Mitchell ($7,700): Mitchell had his best game of the series with 46.75 DraftKings points in Game 4. He still was cold from the floor, but Mitchell racked up four steals and hauled in nine boards to get him value before fouling out. Rubio is out again, so I don’t know that I trust Mitchell tonight. He struggles creating good shots for himself.
Honorable Mention:
Jrue Holiday ($7,400): Holiday has erased his awful Game 1 with two big performances and a solid one since. Holiday continues to be a huge scorer from the outside, and is capable of putting up 50. You don’t find a lot of guys priced in this range that can do that. There is a lot of value out there tonight, so you can fit Holiday in even if you use one or two studs.
Klay Thompson ($5,900): Thompson has been off and on this series, or more accurately, on, then off, then on, then off. This would project to be his on game if you believe in those sort of things. I just believe that Thompson is too big of a risk and doesn’t have enough upside, even at this price.
Dark Horses:
Eric Gordon ($4,800): Gordon had a miserable game on Sunday, posting just 14 DraftKings points. He was cold from the floor and beyond the arc, and didn’t do much of anything else besides foul. Is that enough to move me off of Gordon? Not really. The minutes and shots are still there, so the potential is as well.
E’Twaun Moore ($4,300): Moore’s minutes were again in the mid 30’s, but his output was pedestrian at best. This is what we get from Moore. Tons of minutes, maybe 5x value. That said, it’s tough to find someone this cheap that produces with any kind of consistency. That alone makes Moore a solid value pick.
My pick: Holiday(SG)
Small Forwards:
Best Bet:
Kevin Durant ($9,500): Durant erupted in Game 4 with 60.75 DraftKings points, his most in over six weeks. KD did a little of everything in the dismantling of the Pelicans on Sunday. With this series moving back to Oakland, look for Durant to have another good game. I don’t think he hits 60 again, but 50 is a distinct possibility.
Honorable Mention:
joe Ingles ($5,600): Ingles is one of the few Utah players that hit value in Game 4. He doesn’t have much for upside, but aside from the disastrous Game 3, Ingles has at least 30 DraftKings points in all but one of the last eight games.
Jae Crowder ($5,100): Crowder was ice cold in Game 4, hitting just one of 11 shot attempts. The good news is that Crowder is still getting shots. You know that he is going to do enough other things to get him close to value with or without the points. Look for Crowder to bounce back tonight. For whatever reason, he played much better in Houston.
Dark Horses:
Andre Iguodala ($4,600): Iguodala was up to his old tricks in Game 4, contributing everywhere but points. That’s what we like to see, that way Iggy isn’t reliant on scoring. I like Iguodala again due to his ability to put up good all around stat lines.
Royce O’Neale ($3,700): O’Neale has put up some solid numbers with Rubio out, but now that his price is up in this range, value is no longer a sure thing. There is still a chance that O’Neale hits in the mid to high 20’s, but he isn’t a huge part of the offense most nights. Still, for this price, you can do much worse, even from among his teammates.
My pick: Ingles(SF), O’Neale(UTIL)
Power Forwards:
Best Bet:
Draymond Green ($8,100): It was just another day at the office for Green in Game 4. Eight points, nine boards, nine assists, two blocks, and four steals. You can’t ask for a more rounded line. Nights like this are normal for Draymond, especially in the playoffs. Use him with confidence!
Honorable Mention:
Nikola Mirotic ($6,700): Mirotic’s price edged back up, but it’s still not to the point that he shouldn’t easily hit value. The Warriors have kept him from the big games that we saw in the Portland series, but Mirotic is basically a lock for 5x value. Unless he goes 1-7 from the field again.
Dark Horses:
P.J. Tucker ($3,900): For the purposes of this series, Tucker has been Trevor Ariza. While Ariza has only hit value once in four games, Tucker has been over in all but one. They are about the same price now, but I sitll like Tucker a lot more. He is a more efficient player than Ariza, but Ariza is a better defender.
Kevon Looney ($3,400): Looney’s output is far and away better than David West‘s. Looney is the bargain forward to use for price relief in the Golden State frontcourt. In Game 4, Looney picked up his fifth straight game of double digit DraftKings points. West hasn’t been over that mark since Game 2.
My pick: Green(PF)
Center
Best Bet:
Anthony Davis ($10,900): Davis dominated Game 3, putting up 33 points and 18 rebounds. The Warriors still can’t handle Davis. Their approach has been to attack the guards and just let Davis do what he does. That makes Davis a must play until the Warriors figure out how to slow him down. The only thing that has slowed Brow in this series was a blowout, and that barely accomplished the feat. Case in point: A.D. was just 8-22 from the floor in Game 4, and he still picked up 47 DraftKings points. He is about as safe as you can get.
Honorable Mention:
Clint Capela ($7,500): Capela has been over 5x value in six straight games now. It stands to reason that he can keep it up against Gobert and the Jazz here. Capela has been a constant in this series, no matter what is going on on the perimeter. I predicted Capela in the high 30’s on Sunday. He hit 51.25. Let’s split the difference and say about 42 for tonight. I’ll take that for $7,500!
Rudy Gobert ($6,400): Gobert has had a mostly quiet series. His numbers are good, but good doesn’t win playoff games. It’s no coincidence that Gobert’s only game above value was in Utah’s Game 2 win. Gobert’s consistency makes him easy to use at this price, but don’t expect anywhere near the upside of Capela.
Dark Horse:
Nene Hilario ($2,700): Nene keeps getting a few scraps of minutes here and there, so he is a far more reliable pick than hoping for Ryan Anderson to come in and hit a couple of shots. Capela has been great in this series, so Nene will be lucky to see 15 minutes, and even more lucky to hit that many DraftKings points. However, he could get you close to double digits while allowing you the cash to buy to studs and at least one good role player.
My pick: Davis(F), Capela(C)
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