MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Tuesday May 8
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Monday’s MLB DFS slate was an ugly one to sort through and if you were willing to take some risks and avoid the chalk you likely had a decent night. Stephen Strasburg was the can’t miss chalk and I am not sure we will see anyone owned at 75% in GPP’s in the near future like we saw with him last night but if you faded him you were likely very happy as four SP’s finished above him including Zack Eflin, Fernando Romero, Dallas Keuchel and Kyle Hendricks as the Nationals ace put up a very pedestrian 7 inning, 5 strikeout performance against the Padres. Offensively The Astros stack was where I planted my flag and I am glad I did as they were under-owned due to the price points (and inability to fit them in with Strasburg) so when they went off for 16 runs including a slate leading night (41 FPTS) from George Springer at less than 15% ownership, it set you up to finish across the cash line.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Starting Pitching Overview:
There is no shortage of high-end pitching on this slate as we get Corey Kluber, James Paxton and Lance McCullers Jr. all in our SP1 conversation as all three arms rank within the top 20 in terms of K rate so far this season. All three arms are great plays but I think within the context of this slate where we have tons of hitting to spend on and a decent second/third tier or arms, I am finding my initial builds moving down from this expensive trio.
Aaron Nola ($19.3K) sits just below the three aces mentioned as a massive -190 home favorite against the Giants tonight in Philadelphia and he is an arm that I believe can be used in both cash games and tournament play this evening. The Giants have the second lowest projected run total on the slate which is kind of amazing considering their recent play and the ballpark boost but I think Nola’s performance this season warrants that kind of respect as he given up 2 or fewer runs in six of his seven starts, gone at least 7 innings in four of his last five starts and with his offense facing LHP Derek Holland, I expect the Phillies to give Nola ample run support.
The line-up the Giants roll out will be interesting to watch as Nola’s K rate this season (20%) may not be something we are excited about but its driven by some significant splits with a 32% K rate versus RHB with a sub 10% K rate versus LHB. Looking back to last season we saw similar numbers for Nola against right-handers at 29% but his numbers versus lefties were substantially higher at 23% so I am going to lean on sample size here and assume Nola reverts back to a higher K rate against lefties. Either way, this Giants team is projected to have at least 4 right-handed bats in the line-up who also happen to be their most dangerous bats in McCutchen, Longoria and Posey so this looks like a solid match-up for Nola who has been exceptional pitching at home in his career with a an ERA a half run lower and a K rate 6% higher than when he pitches on the road.
Sean Newcomb ($16K) is my favorite SP2 option on this slate and can be paired really with any of the elite arms available to us with the reality being that Newcomb is not far off metrics wise from moving up to a similar tier as someone like the aforementioned Nola. Newcomb has a 29% K rate this season with is 13th in baseball, percentage points behind McCullers at 29.2% whicj is consistent with the high K upside he flashed at every level in the minor leagues.
Everything about his numbers so far seems to jive with the underlying metrics as his 3.38 ERA is right in line with his xFIP and SIERA and compared to last year he is generating the same 11% swinging strike rate while limiting hard contact to around 28%. Newcomb has had at least 5 K’s in every game this season with 7 or more in four of his last five outings and will now take on a Tampa Bay team with a 23.4% K rate versus LHP this season which is 12th highest in baseball.
Newcomb has already pitched two games this season on the road (in New York and Coors Field) where he struck out 8+, gave up 0 ER and scored 32+ FantasyDraft points so the demonstrated upside is there and if he can put up those numbers in those hitting environments against much more dangerous offenses, what kind of ceiling does he have in a massive pitchers park like Tampa against this Rays line-up?
MLB DFS – Top Hitting Spots:
One of the reasons we may want to step down a tier at pitcher is we have a Coors Field game tonight with a 10.5 total (highest on the slate) between two dangerous line-ups in the Rockies and Angels. At first glance of this slate honestly I skipped over this game thinking the prices would be through the roof and with great hitting spots elsewhere, why jam in over-priced Coors bats when I can go elsewhere?
Well I looked at the pricing and I think outside out a few big names this is a spot we need to attack because generally the majority of the guys here seem a bit too cheap considering the ballpark. The Rockies get a match-up against LHP Andrew Heaney, a pitcher who is giving up the highest hard contact rate (43%) on the entire slate while also having the second lowest ground ball rate. Now the sample size is small for sure, pitching only 40 innings over the last two seasons, but let’s not sugar coat it here people – in 34 innings versus RHB the last two years, Heaney has given up 27 ER, 15 home runs and a 50% hard contact rate – no really he has given up 15 home runs in 34 innings, read that again.
Nolan Arenado ($10.8K) is pricey but I am not sure there is a better spend up bat today and frankly he is the only right-handed bat that really is going to make you flinch when you look at the price as Trevor Story ($8.5K), Ian Desmond ($7.3K) and Chris Ianetta ($6.3K) are all priced incredibly reasonably considering the match-up. Stack away at all the right-handed bats here tonight and do not be shy.
Please note – it is expected also that D.J. LeMahieu ($8.4K) will be actiavted off the DL tonight so keep an eye on the news here as I always love putting in guys that have the DL tag next to their name all day – could certainly keep ownership down.
The Angels have a bit more difficult of a match-up against Jon Gray, a talented pitcher that has the unfortunate task of calling Coors Field home, as he is coming off back to back strong match-ups where he struck out 17 batters in 13 innings while giving up only 1 ER in a home start versus San Diego and a road start in Wrigley. However, go back to the three game stretch before that where Gray where he gave up 18 ER in 15 IP over three starts and his 7.31 home ERA will certainly give you some reason to target the Angels bats here.
So far this season it has been the lefties who have done the damage, touching him up for 4 HR (1.54 HR/9) and 13 ER in 23 IP versus left-handed batters. The one challenge you will have with the Angels is that they have a lack of left-handed bats available to them and with this game being in the National League they will lose Shohei Ohtani‘s bats at DH so the best two options are Kole Calhoun and Luis Valbuena who are both priced in the $6K-$7K range and makes them a nice mini-stack to correlate with your Rockies core.
Coors Field is not the only place for hitting tonight as with LHP Derek Holland in Citizen’s Bank Park, a ballpark that is every bit as good for right-handed power as Coors, the Phillies become a great stack to pair with the high upside Rockies tonight. Holland is giving up a .270 ISO to right-handed bats over the last two seasons and so far this year has given up 17 ER and 5 HR’s (1.78 HR/9) to RHB in only 25 IP.
Rhys Hoskins ($9.4K) has a .330 ISO versus LHP the last two seasons while Aaron Altherr ($7.5K) is not far behind with a .266 mark while the red-hot Maikel Franco ($7.3K) is sporting a .300+ ISO this season. The pricing for the Phillies outside of Hoskins is very reasonable so you can use them as a stack with a high-end arm like Kluber, Paxton or McCullers or pair them with the Rockies if you opt to move down a tier or two at SP.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
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SP: Aaron Nola ($19.3K)
SP: Sean newcomb ($16K)
IF: Nolan Arenado ($10.8K)
IF: Trevor Story ($8.5K)
IF: Luis Valbuena ($7.2K)
OF: Ian Desmond ($7.3K)
OF: Kole Calhoun ($6.4K)
OF: Aaron Altherr ($7.5K)
UTIL: Rhys Hoskins ($9.4K)
UTIL: Maikel Franco ($7.3K)
Slate Overview: There are so many ways to go on this slate with high-end arms and high-octane offenses so I would be less worried about ownership and simply go after the best spots you can. There is no doubt Coors Field is the best spot on paper, specifically with the Rockies RHB but do not overlook the upside of the right-handed hitters in Philly against Holland. Enjoy your night of MLB DFS and see you back here on Wednesday.
Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!