This Week in Stats: Chelsea still fighting for the top four

Chelsea kept their top four hopes alive against Liverpool. West Brom beat Tottenham to continue their ridiculous run, and Carlos Carvalhal is chicken.

When Chelsea drew with West Ham on April 8, their quest for a top four finish appeared to be over. They were 10 points behind Liverpool and Tottenham with just six games to go. However, four wins in a row means the race for the Champions League spots goes to the final week of the season, and their latest victory was against Jurgen Klopp’s side on Sunday.

Olivier Giroud scored the only goal of the game. When it comes to the big teams, Liverpool are his favorite opponent, as he now has six goals against them. The Frenchman headed in Victor Moses’ cross to extend his record as the top scorer of headed Premier League goals during his time in England.

While Liverpool were renowned for struggling with crosses, their record has been far better since Virgil van Dijk arrived. The Reds conceded a headed goal against Burnley in January, but then went almost four months without conceding another.

However, the headers they’ve since conceded, against West Brom and Chelsea, have cost them points which would’ve secured Champions League qualification.

As is often the case when Liverpool go behind away from home, they had plenty of the ball, but not entirely in areas which could hurt Chelsea.

Part of the reason they couldn’t get through the Blues’ defense was N’golo Kante. He made eight interceptions, which is the most by any Chelsea player this season, and just one shy of his own personal best. Seven of them occurred after Giroud’s goal, as the home side looked to close out the match.

In the final 11 minutes, they really tried to close it down. Chelsea made three substitutions, and three of their players were booked for time wasting. And yet Liverpool could’ve claimed a point in that period, but Dominic Solanke headed a good chance wide.

The former Chelsea man has had a tough season. He has racked up the most expected goals of any goalless player in the division. Solanke deserves credit for getting into good positions, but his two highest value shots have been in matches Liverpool have drawn.

His effort against Chelsea was his third closest to goal too, so slightly better finishing on his part might’ve made a small but significant improvement to the Reds’ league campaign.

As it is, the battle for the top four goes to the final week. Liverpool are still strong favorites to get there, but Chelsea look likely to push them all the way.

West Brom march on

West Brom’s remarkable attempt at staying in the Premier League has also lasted until the final week of the season. They beat Tottenham 1-0 thanks to a marvelously insane passage of play which only lasted a matter of seconds.

A glance at the shot stats reveals Spurs had 18 to the home side’s nine. It was the Baggies who dominated the clear-cut chances, though. They had three while Tottenham had one, with Ben Foster saving Harry Kane’s effort.

Not much has gone for the England striker since he went to ridiculous lengths to claim a goal. Kane has mustered at least one expected goal 11 times in the Premier League this season, but he hasn’t managed the feat since he rushed back from his last injury. He’s understandably exhausted after a long season, but his form doesn’t bode well for England’s World Cup chances.

All three of West Brom’s clear-cut chances came in the move for their goal. Craig Dawson had a point-blank header blocked, following a corner. Chris Brunt then had an attempt, before Jake Livermore bundled the ball home. The Baggies aren’t the division’s least creative side, but six percent of their big chances this season occurred in that mad few seconds.

As for Tottenham, they’ll still surely finish in the top four, so the damage should be minimal. Mauricio Pochettino’s record shows they tend to struggle at this time of year too.

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But they didn’t create much of note considering how they penned the home side in. Three Spurs players completed more final third passes than West Brom, which is rare, and a center-back (Toby Alderweireld) completed the most, which is rarer still. It counted for nothing, though, and Darren Moore’s absurdly good caretaker spell continued.

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Swans need to flap their wings, and fast

Bournemouth’s 1-0 win over Swansea perhaps seems an odd match to include this week. However, Priya Ramesh’s tweet was too good to leave out.

In case you missed it, Swansea manager Carlos Carvalhal recently claimed to have no interest in statistics, and used a bizarre analogy to prove his point.

“It’s like if you and me went for a picnic, we take a chicken and I eat all of it but you have none, but statistically you have eaten half of the chicken. This is why I don’t look at statistics.”

If that’s how you think stats work, Carlos, it’s probably best you keep away from them. It’s the worst incident with a Carlos and a chicken since Frasier was mocked by two shock jocks at KACL.

And while the facts in Dale Johnson’s tweet look bad, Swansea weren’t the worst performing side on either front this weekend.

But they had almost an hour to rescue a point after Ryan Fraser gave the Bournemouth the lead, and only mustered two shots in the box in response. This was against a side with little to play for too, which won’t apply when Swansea host Southampton on Tuesday.

The Swans’ remaining two fixtures are at home against teams in the bottom four, so they should stay up. If they don’t, Carvalhal may regret not taking a passing glance at the statistics.