FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups: Thursday May 10

Welcome to the FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups column. This is the Thursday, May 10th 2018 edition. We’re a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you build a DFS MLB optimal lineup for each slate.

After nailing two slates earlier this week, we bombed spectacularly on Wednesday for both the FanDuel MLB Early Only and Main slates. We didn’t bomb in a dramatic fashion either, more like a withering balloon making the faint sound of fart noises as the air is releasing. We can do better tonight.

With ten MLB teams taking the day off on Thursday, we only have ten game on the schedule today. Only one game begins in the early afternoon, creating an ‘All Day’ slate for FanDuel MLB. We’re fading that game, the Phillies hosting the Giants, and focusing only on the Main slate for this article.

Before we get there, a reminder to never take a DFS MLB optimal lineup as ‘bible’ for your personal lineup each day. Use the suggestions as guidance. Also, make sure you follow final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR or me @mattymcmatt17 look for late breaking lineup news.

Weather Note: For most of the country, the weather is great for baseball tonight. However, there are two meaningful games we need to watch. Showers and thunderstorms appear to be rolling through the north east and mid-Atlantic.

That creates some delay, and less likely postponement, risks for the Royals and Orioles in Baltimore and Red Sox and Yankees in New York. However, the impact should thunderstorm related, and the precipitation odds around game-time are currently on the low-end. So we’re considering all four teams playable today. Just be aware of the risk.

So, with weather-related considerations addressed, let’s get to the top pitching options…

FanDuel MLB: Top Pitcher Main Slate

‘Life moves pretty fast. If you don’t stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.’ The quote is a great one from Ferris Bueller’s Day Off, and it’s absolutely applicable when trying to develop DFS MLB optimal lineups. Just a few weeks ago, Walker Buehler ($8,600) was a cheap and avoided pitcher, and he’s now likely a chalky play, and significantly more expensive.

While we think Buehler is a popular play tonight, several other decent options at the pitcher spot will likely reduce his ownership percentage. That would be great, because we love Walker tonight. For starters, Buehler is the only starting pitcher on the mound tonight who has an xFIP (2.81) below 3.00.

Buehler has a low 1.06 WHIP and 19 strikeouts in 16 innings, or over one K per inning. Walker’s 11.1% walk rate isn’t ideal, but his low WHIP and .179 batting average against him along with a .270 BABIP suggests he’s going to keep most hitters off the base-path. Yes, Buehler has only seen the mound three times this season, and his opponents are the Marlins, Giants, and Padres so far.

But the Reds have a low 84 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers away from Cincinnati this season, seventh worst in baseball. Their K-rate is only around 20%, so we may not see the eight strikeouts as we did in San Diego, but we can still expect a low ER, win, quality start, and four to six strikeouts for a solid 40 FanDuel MLB point outing. Walker has the potential for a 50 to 60 point outing tonight, if all goes well.

While we believe Buehler is the best lock at the pitcher spot, there are several other great plays to considering tonight. J.A. Happ ($9,100) is more expensive and has been giving up 1.5 home runs per nine innings this season, but he also has a low 6.4% walk rate and 1.08 WHIP. Also, like Buehler, Happ is fanning batter at roughly 31% of the time.

Happ also has a larger body of work to review, so we know he’s being consistent. However, the Mariners offense has a 103 wRC+ against LHP’s away from Seattle, so he doesn’t have the great match up Buehler has tonight.

Garrett Richards ($8,800) and Caleb Smith ($7,600) are two more high K-rate considerations. Both have been fanning batters over a 30% rate. However, they each have a 11%+ walk rate as well, and Richards gets a solid Twins offense while Smith gets an even more difficult Braves offense. Smith is a great GPP play tonight, but given the match-ups, we keep coming back to Buehler as the top pick for pitcher tonight.

FanDuel MLB: Top Hitting Stacks Main Slate

When we looked at the advanced metrics for tonight’s slate, among all starting pitchers, three guys jumped out at us immediately. Mariners Mike Leake and Orioles Chris Tillman are each giving up a ton of home runs this season, and have WHIPs climbing to, or above (Tillman) 2.00 this year. It’s honestly baffling why the O’s even have Tillman at the major league level still.

That means the Royals and Blue Jays are great offensive stacks tonight. Even better, their ownership will likely be low thanks to Jhoulys Chacin and the Brewers visiting the Rockies in Denver, Colorado tonight.

We’re likely avoiding the Rockies offense because they’re a very popular pick and should be the chalk tonight. But it’s still worth at least considering one Rockies bat in your lineup tonight, to get a piece of the action. Especially in cash games.

That being said, even though the Royals were somewhat disappointing last night, we still like Salvador Perez ($3,300), Whit Merrifield ($3,600), Alcides Escobar ($2,400) and Jorge Soler ($3,700) from the Royals lineup tonight.

Merrifield had double-digit FanDuel MLB points in each of his last three games, two in Baltimore already, and Perez was very close to a big night last night. Escobar is a value play with a high ceiling potential tonight. And Soler is having a fantastic May, including two home runs already, one in Baltimore.

Buehler isn’t that expensive of a pitcher, so we can still afford Teoscar Hernandez ($3,300) and Josh Donaldson ($3,800) from the top of the Blue Jays lineup against Leake tonight. We can also afford Yangervis Solarte ($3,200), Justin Smoak ($3,100), or Kevin Pillar ($2,800) hitting in three through five spots of the lineup. Pillar is a great value play at that salary. From the Rockies, pick anyone you can afford from the top six of their lineup and drop them into the Utility spot.

FanDuel MLB: Summary and Example Lineup

Before we jump into the re-cap, another stack to consider is the Dodgers bats. Yes, they’ve been cold at the early part of this season, but their advanced metrics are screaming for a bounce-back soon.

Someone like Matt Kemp ($3,400) in your utility spot should be a fantastic play against Tyler Mahle and the Reds. While Mahle has no BvP against the Dodgers, he had a horrendous 1.69 WHIP away from home this season, and is giving up around two home runs per nine innings in this scenario. Meanwhile, Kemp has 13 hits in just the last seven games.

At the pitcher spot, we like Happ, Smith, and Richards because of their high K-rates this season. But we think the best play is Buehler. If you’re focused only on GPP, we recommend going with Caleb Smith, as he’s still flying under the radar of many FanDuel MLB players.

For offensive stacks, we love the Blue Jays, Royals, and Rockies tonight. But expect the Rockies to be chalk. Also, the Dodgers offense is likely flying under the radar, and Matt Kemp would be a great play in all formats, and stacking the Dodgers could work with Smith in GPP plays.

With that summary in mind, here’s a look at a sample lineup for the Main FanDuel MLB slate on Thursday, May 10th: 

FanDuel MLB MAIN Slate Sample Lineup:

P          Walker Buehler ($8,600)

C/1B   Salvador Perez ($3,300)

2B        Whit Merrifield ($3,600)

3B        Josh Donaldson ($3,800)

SS        Alcides Escobar ($2,400)

OF        Jorge Soler ($3,700)

OF        Teoscar Hernandez ($3,300)

OF        Kevin Pillar ($2,800)

UTIL     Matt Kemp ($3,400)

Remaining Salary: $100

Note: This is a recommended lineup after discussing our top options for today. You should use this as a guide, and provide your own input when building FanDuel NHL lineups.  We are not telling you, or selling you, to use this lineup.

Next: MLB DFS Picks and Pivots

Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all your DFS news and analysis across MLB, NBA, NHL, and EPL this spring!