The Sixers are now ready to plan out the next steps
After entering their second-round series against the Celtics as heavy favorites to advance to the Eastern Finals, the Sixers have crashed out of the playoffs in five games. Philadelphia’s loss, though disappointing, represents a profoundly bright bookend to a fascinating period in the franchise’s history.
Under the direction of Daryl Morey protege Sam Hinkie, the Sixers launched a daring method of rebuilding in 2013; it simultaneously became the most polarizing and iconic NBA roster construction strategy of this century. For a few years now, I’ve understood this extreme approach as a risky tripartite endeavor.
During the infant stages of that rebuild, before Hinkieism had risen to prominence, the Sixers established a singular goal for themselves: to obtain numerous star caliber players by getting as many high lottery picks and trade assets as possible. Those were the tough years, when the losing was endless and we wondered whether it would ever amount to anything. Let’s have a moment of silence for the many martyrs that played for the Sixers during those dog days:
The brazen nature of Hinkie’s reconstruction placed the NBA in a public relations bind and the powers that be elbowed Hinkie out of power in Philadelphia (quite an unfair end to his tenure I would argue). Though Hinkie was the fall guy for the rise of tanking across the league, his radical approach paid dividends. Philadelphia had seven lottery picks between 2013 and 2017, including four top-three picks. By drafting promising prospects like Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz, guys that looked like surefire All-Stars and future All-NBA talents, Philly had completed the brutal but rewarding talent collection phase of its rebuild.
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Part two of Philadelphia’s journey to contention would be to evaluate how these talented players mesh. Considering how long young players can take to mature, one would expect this to take at least a few years to fully comprehend. In the case of the Sixers, it could take even longer because so many of Philadelphia’s top picks have had to sit out due to injury. And so we entered the 2017-2018 season with a litany of questions. Would Philadelphia be able to craft an efficient offense around an Embiid-Simmons pairing given Simmons’ broken jump shot? What role would Markelle Fultz and Dario Saric play in all of this? Could the Sixers get away with playing huge lineups featuring Simmons, Embiid and Saric?
Fast forward to April and the Sixers had won 52 games, finishing 10th in offensive rating and fifth in defensive rating. They outperformed the expectations of even the most rabid Sixers fans. The Celtics exposed some of the flaws with this Sixers team in their 4-1 series victory. But Philadelphia ran into a well-coached team that seamlessly executed a perfect game plan to attack the Sixers. Even so, Philly fans should be beyond thrilled. This loss should ultimately serve as a learning experience for a young core with great expectations moving forward. The playoff run, the franchise’s first since 2012, was a huge success. The team won 78 games in the four seasons before 2017-18; this year it won 52 games and a playoff series!
And finally, the Sixers learned that they have viable core moving forward. Embiid avoided any injuries that could have major long-term impacts. Hooray, that’s promising! Equally satisfying is the revelation that Ben Simmons has the potential to be a top-10 NBA player. He’s a preternatural passer, a dynamic finisher at the rim in transition and a gifted defender. Guys that are this awesome at such a young age are rare indeed and they tend to get better fast. Simmons’ game has some obvious holes, but if he even develops an average jumper he could be an all-time guy. The year-long Fultz debacle is concerning, but it’s way too early to give up on a player that was so clearly talented in college and NBA Summer League. In any case, this squad should be a contender in the East for a long time.
And so we’ve arrived at the third phase of Philadelphia’s lengthy redevelopment plan: surrounding the core pieces with the right talent long-term. In some ways this is going to be the trickiest part of the puzzle. This is when the Sixers will have to ask some tough questions and make gutsy decisions. Who on the current roster should stick around to supplement the foundational duo of Embiid and Simmons? Was Robert Covington’s collapse against Boston an outlier or should Philadelphia look to find an upgrade for his role? How much will the Sixers be willing to pay J.J. Redick, who was so vital to the team’s offense, moving forward? Redick’s gargantuan cap hold will hold up Philadelphia’s free agent plans until the team resolves his contract situation. Such questions are only the beginning of the high wire act that is constructing a championship squad.
Then there is free agency itself. For the first time in years, Philadelphia will be a potential destination for high level players. Though that’s obviously encouraging, but free agency is an unforgiving affair that requires impeccable timing. Screw up and years of meticulous planning could go down in flames within a matter of hours. Or worse still, pay the wrong guy and you could damn yourself to cap hell while limiting the ceiling of your team.
I don’t think that it’s an exaggeration to suggest that this could be the biggest offseason in the history of the Sixers franchise. If they can nail the offseason and add another star to the core, they could solidify themselves as a surefire championship contender for years to come. The Sixers can easily create the space to sign a max guy this summer. That’s one of the benefits of having so many guys on rookie deals and veterans on short contracts.
But pulling off big time signings often requires some luck and creativity. In addition, that cap space is going to evaporate quickly moving forward. Philly has to strike within the next two summers, before the Simmons, Saric, Fultz trifecta become extension eligible. The urgency surrounding these upcoming summers is pretty crazy when considering the fact that the Sixers were a 28 win team just one year ago. The 2018 season has accelerated the team’s developmental curve immensely.
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We know that the Sixers are going to be playoff mainstays for years to come, assuming Simmons and Embiid stay healthy. But the summer of 2018 could determine the potential duration of their championship window. The Sixers are no longer a team that free agents will use as a leverage play. They will have a legit chance at signing transformative players like LeBron James and Paul George. And they probably have the assets to pull off a trade for Kawhi Leonard if the Spurs do in fact make him available. If Philly lands any part of that trio, they have a chance to dominate much of the next decade. Miss out and they might have to settle for guys like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope or Avery Bradley: nice players with many flaws that are not destiny-altering pieces.
Thinking and acting uniquely has gotten the Sixers this far. Now they have to trust GM Bryan Colangelo to lead them this monumental summer. Is he up for the challenge? We’ll know fairly soon. His performance in the coming months could shake the foundations of the NBA, or leave us wondering about what could have been.