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NBA Draft Lottery 2018: Odds and scenarios

By Bryan Toporek

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MAY 16: The lottery drawing begins inside the lottery room during the 2017 NBA Draft Lottery at the New York Hilton in New York, New York. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Jennifer Pottheiser/NBAE via Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MAY 16: The lottery drawing begins inside the lottery room during the 2017 NBA Draft Lottery at the New York Hilton in New York, New York. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Jennifer Pottheiser/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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Find out which teams have the best chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick during Tuesday’s NBA Draft Lottery.

At the 2018 NBA Draft Lottery on Tuesday night, four pingpong balls will shape the course of certain franchises for the next decade.

Whichever team wins the No. 1 overall pick will receive the right to choose Arizona center Deandre Ayton, Real Madrid swingman Luka Doncic or any other prospect in this year’s draft class. Michigan State big man Jaren Jackson Jr., Duke forward Marvin Bagley and Texas center Mo Bamba aren’t likely to be far behind Ayton and Doncic, while high-upside prospects such as Oklahoma guard Trae Young, Duke center Wendell Carter and Missouri forward Michael Porter Jr. could slip to teams in the mid-lottery range.

Who has the best chance to land the No. 1 overall pick? Which teams have the most at stake during Tuesday’s lottery? Here’s a look at each team’s odds:

Lottery scenarios

No matter where the Brooklyn Nets’ pick lands, it will convey to the Cleveland Cavaliers as part of the Kyrie Irving trade from this past August. (Billy King: The gift that keeps on giving.)

Regardless of where the Los Angeles Lakers’ pick lands, they will not receive it. The pick will go to the Boston Celtics if it falls between Nos. 2 and 5; otherwise, it will head to the Philadelphia 76ers if it’s either No. 1 overall or anything beyond No. 6. If the Sixers do not convey the Lakers’ pick to the Celtics this year, they’ll send the better of their own 2019 pick or the Sacramento Kings’ 2019 first-rounder next June, provided that selection is not the No. 1 overall pick. (In that scenario, the Sixers would send the lesser of the two picks.)

Because the lottery only decides the order of the first three teams, the Lakers cannot finish in either the No. 4 or No. 5 spot this year. They have a 1.3 percent chance of landing the No. 2 overall pick and a 1.6 percent chance of finishing third overall, both of which would go to Boston. The most likely scenario (87.0 percent) has them finishing 10th, where they’re slotted in the pre-lottery order based on records, although they have an 8.7 percent chance of sliding to 11th if one of the four teams behind them jumps into the top three.

Next: Every NBA team's greatest draft pick of all time

The Detroit Pistons are the only other team with a lottery pick at stake. As part of their acquisition of Blake Griffin in January, the Pistons agreed to send a top-four-protected 2018 first-rounder to the Los Angeles Clippers, which has a 97.5 percent chance of conveying. Detroit is overwhelmingly favored (93.5 percent) to remain at No. 12 overall and send that pick to the Clippers, although there’s a 3.9 percent chance the Pistons fall to 13th.

Got all of that? Good. Now you’re officially prepped for Tuesday night’s lottery festivities.

All odds via Tankathon.

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