KC Masterpiece 400 preview: Chasing Harvick

The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series seems to have pivoted back to its earlier position, which is everyone in the field trying to keep up with Kevin Harvick.

Here we go again. Kevin Harvick served notice that he was going to be a top championship contender earlier this season by tearing through three NASCAR Cup Series victories in a row. Just when he finally looked mortal, he won again last week at Dover. And oh yeah, he’s on the pole for this week’s KC Masterpiece 400 at Kansas Speedway.

Even when Harvick’s No. 4 team has made mistakes, they’ve generally been so good that they can overcome them. So outside hoping that something breaks on the Busch Light Ford, the rest of the field is just going to have to figure out how to catch and pass him.

That’s a tall task, but some Toyota drivers might be up to the challenge. Kyle Busch has been the other multiple-race winner in 2018, and he won this race two seasons ago. He starts third on Saturday night and should be ready to pounce if the 4 seems even a tad off its game.

And what about defending NASCAR Cup Series champion Martin Truex Jr.? He’s been overshadowed most of this season, though he has already won one race and knows he’ll have a shot to try to repeat come playoff time. But he’s seeing the bonus points that flowed his way in 2017 go to others instead, and if he can’t contend for a win here — especially since he swept both Kansas races last season — he and the 78 team are bound to be leaving Kansas Speedway a bit discouraged.

If Harvick can get out and lead early laps, look out. The Truck Series race on Friday night proved it is possible to run down the leader under the lights, but it’s certainly not easy. No one really wants to be chasing the 4 again, but it’s looking like that’s going to be the mission this week.

Next: KC Masterpiece 400 starting grid

Forecast

No one really wants to see more precipitation in a NASCAR season that has already featured plenty of it, but there is a slight chance of rain for Kansas Speedway tonight, according to the Weather Channel. It’s also going to be pretty warm for a night race in May, with air temps in the mid-80s for the green flag and not falling off all that much as the race goes on. That’s good for crew chiefs as the track might not change as much from beginning to end as is typical for racing under the lights.

Three things to watch

• Are the Chevy drivers doomed again? It’s been a rough start to the 2018 campaign for Chevrolet with the exception of Austin Dillon’s Daytona 500 triumph. No Chevy has visited Victory Lane since then, and the only car to qualify in the top 10 for the KC Masterpiece 400 is being driven by Chris Buescher. This group of divers would desperately love to break through, but the chances of it happening at Kansas appear grim.
• What can Matt Kenseth do in his first race back? Roush Fenway Racing wasn’t happy with the results it was seeing from Trevor Bayne, which is why it turned to Kenseth. But the 6 wasn’t super fast in practice and didn’t even make it on the track for a qualifying run, so expectations have to be tempered for at least this week.
• Watch for fuel strategy gambits. The Truck Series race featured a number of drivers gambling on fuel mileage plays, and while they didn’t work out in the end, it would not be surprising to see cars near the back of the lead lap try similar ploys on Saturday night. The problem is that these strategies often rely on cautions flying at opportune times to bunch the field back up, and Kansas isn’t generally a place where there are tons of wrecks.

Predictions

Fans of every other driver are probably going to hate this if it turns out to be true, but this feels like another race that is going to be contested between the drivers who have already won races this season. Truex could certainly have something to say about the outcome, but we’re going to go with Kyle Busch over Harvick in a 1-2 finish that will even things up at four wins each between this year’s two true title contenders.

Our dark horse pick is starting near the front but still earns his status since he hasn’t won a Cup Series race in four years. Keep an eye on Aric Almirola, because his Stewart-Haas Racing Ford is obviously fast, he’s got a history at this track he’d like to put behind him, and if the leaders run into trouble, he just might be the guy to take advantage of it.