The 10 biggest questions for the Rockets-Warriors matchup

There is no prelude necessary as we get ready for the Western Conference Finals between the Rockets and Warriors. Just as we did last Friday for the Eastern Conference, let’s walk through 10 questions that will define the series and determine who gets to face the winner of Cavs-Celtics for the Larry O’Brien Trophy.

Who will the Warriors start at center?

In Game 4 against New Orleans, Steve Kerr started the so-called Hamptons Five lineup for the first time ever. After blowing the Pelicans off the floor in the final two games of that series, will Kerr really go back to a more traditional lineup with a center on the floor? The bet here is yes, he will. He literally just did it against the Pelicans in Game 3 before going back to the smaller lineup to wrap up the series.

Kerr prefers to match up with the opposition, size-wise, at center. With Clint Capela out there, it seems fairly likely that we’re going to see one of Kevon Looney or JaVale McGee on the floor to start the game, even if that’s not likely to be the Warriors’ best look against Houston. Looney has more of the movement skills necessary against the best of what the Houston offense has to offer, but McGee might actually make more sense as the kind of stationary rim-protector that so bothered Harden in last year’s series loss to the Spurs.

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Either way, while we figure to see a whole lot of the Death Lineup, it seems like the safe money is on the Warriors not using it to start the game unless it comes clear a couple games in that none of their centers are workable against Houston. Not only does Kerr prefer to match up anyway, but starting Andre Iguodala makes their rotation strangely short because the Warriors have so many centers. It’s basically just Quinn Cook, Shaun Livingston and David West at that point. To preserve the regular rotation and lengthen the bench, Kerr will presumably start a real center.

Can Clint Capela stay on the floor for 36-ish minutes a night? And if he can’t, how effective will the antidote lineups be?

Prior to last round, Capela had never played more than 36 minutes in a game. He finally hit 37 minutes played in Game 4 against Utah. He’s averaging 32 minutes per game during Houston’s playoff run thus far, an increase of 4.5 minutes per game from the regular season. Can he stay on the floor a few minutes more than that a night? He might have to.

ESPN’s Zach Lowe stated on his podcast last week that the Rockets believe Capela needs to be on the floor more often than not in order for them to have their best chance in this series. That’s undoubtedly the case. The P.J. Tucker at center lineups are a nice backup plan for the Rockets to have in case Capela can’t stay on the floor, but trying to out-Warrior the Warriors as your Plan A is unwise. Better to hope Capela can keep his hot streak going and dominate yet another matchup, as he did against Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert.

The combination of size and agility Capela brings is nearly unmatched in the league right now, and his rim-protection abilities are going to be huge against a Warriors team that likes to get to the rim far more often than people realize. Being able to contest Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant on the drive rather than yielding clean lanes helps muddy things up just a bit, and if you can get those guys to pass out of their drives by sending multiple bodies at them, you may be able to turn a sure basket into a chancey hoist from outside the arc by Draymond Green or Andre Iguodala. The more possessions the Rockets can funnel to those guys, the better their chances of coming away with a win.

If, for some reason, Capela just can’t hang with the Warriors in space, well, that’s why Daryl Morey went out and signed Tucker and Luc Mbah a Moute last offseason. There’s no team in the league more well-equipped to go small-for-small with the Warriors than these Rockets, thanks to that duo, plus Trevor Ariza and Eric Gordon.

You could see in Houston’s previous two series that Mike D’Antoni was occasionally turning to the Tucker-at-center looks for a few minutes here and there just to keep them fresh, even if they weren’t necessarily working all that well. Those units got 137 possessions of non-garbage time work during the regular season, per Cleaning the Glass, and outscored opponents by a ridiculous 35 points per 100 possessions. They’ve won total minutes by five points in the playoffs so far, per NBA.com. In other words, they’re fairly untested; but at least they’ve gotten some work in recently.

It feels appropriate to note here that, after outscoring opponents by 20 points in 127 regular-season minutes, the Death Lineup 2.0 blasted the Pellies by 54 points in 54 minutes across the final four games of Round 2. Those guys are fresh and ready to go, and the relative struggles they had with that unit during the regular season are far behind them at this point.

How healthy is Stephen Curry?

The last time the Warriors squared off with an opponent as good as these Rockets and Curry was less than 100 percent, they lost. (It’s OK to admit Curry was less than 100 percent in the 2016 Finals, Cavs fans. It doesn’t cheapen the trophy to admit this. I promise.) He looked pretty good for most of the Pelicans series, but he also looked pretty good at points during the 2016 playoffs after returning from injury. Great players can have great games or even stretches of games despite not being 100 percent.

We’ll know if Curry is really good to go if, when he draws guys like Capela and Tucker and Nene (if he sees the floor) into open space, he is able to take them to the rim off the dribble or shake his way into a step-back 3 that ends up being completely uncontested. The healthier he is, of course, the better the chance the Warriors earn the right to go back-to-back.

Who will Curry and James Harden guard? And who will do a better job targeting the opposing team’s weakest defender?

Much like I expect Kerr to begin the series with a true center on the floor, I also expect him to let Curry try to guard Chris Paul at the start of the series. Curry likes defending his own position rather than being hidden on the least dangerous perimeter option, and will want the challenge of guarding Paul from the jump. If the Warriors can survive stretches like that and not have to contort themselves into cross-matches, they’ll stick with it. If CP starts cooking, though, they’ll get things switched up in a hurry. That means either Klay Thompson shifts onto Paul and Durant guards Harden or the Warriors go small and bring Iguodala in the game to guard Paul while keeping Thompson on Harden and letting Steph and Durant handle the Tucker and Ariza (or Mbah a Moute) matchups.

It’s more difficult to parse who Harden might defend to start things off. Much of that will depend on whether the Warriors start big or small. If they go with the Death Lineup from the jump, Iguodala makes for a relatively easy call as Harden’s matchup. But if the Warriors start big, they may just have to shift him onto Green. Steph is a non-starter, as is Durant, and Houston seems unlikely to task Harden with chasing Thompson around screens. Guarding Draymond means he’ll often wind up switched onto Curry or Durant, but it’ll take the Warriors a few seconds to engineer the switch, leaving both less time on the shot clock to get a look and more time for Houston to gear up its help defense behind Harden. (It’s also possible they could bait Draymond into the post, where he’s not exactly a nimble scorer and where Harden is stouter than many realize.)

Either way, both teams figure to hunt down the weakest perimeter defender on the opposing team as often as possible. The Warriors are probably A-OK with Houston adjusting to Curry guarding Tucker or Ariza or Mbah a Moute by having that guy, rather than Capela, screen for Harden or Paul. All three of those players are capable of making the right play attacking four-on-three downhill, but that’s not the optimal result of a Rockets possession. They’d prefer to get Steph caught in a switch so he has to guard James or Chris one-on-one with shooters spacing the floor and Capela lurking in the dunker spot.

On the other end, forcing Harden to change direction multiple times and/or hitting him with screens away from the ball is always a good bet to get him lunging in the wrong direction. There’s nobody in the league better at using off-ball action to create openings than the Warriors, and Harden will have to be 100 percent on his game at all times defensively in order to avoid being taken advantage of.

Can the Rockets sneak in any minutes for Ryan Anderson?

Anderson has barely been in the rotation so far during the playoffs. If the Rockets want to keep pace with Golden State offensively, they might need to dust him off. He’s arguably Houston’s best shooter, and because he’s a big man, he brings to added bonus of changing the balance of the floor.

The problem, of course, is that he’s damn near unplayable against the Warriors defensively. This is the whole reason why they essentially started paring down his minutes late in the season. They needed to figure out a way to play without him in case he couldn’t be on the floor in this series. To their credit, they did indeed figure out how to survive without him. But can they steal some minutes for him when, say, the Warriors have West on the floor to start second quarters? If they can win those minutes with his shooting, that could be a big boost to their chances.

Do the Warriors want to switch or blitz pick-and-rolls?

For most teams, switching James Harden or Chris Paul pick-and-rolls should be out of the question. Those guys are too good at just pulling the ball out and winning switch isolations with drives to the rim or drive-and-kicks to wide-open shooters. They were the two best iso players in the NBA this season, and killing big men on switches is a huge reason why.

The Warriors, of course, are no ordinary team. They’re much more well-equipped to switch those pick-and-rolls than anyone else in the league. Draymond Green can pick up Paul or Harden just fine. So can Kevin Durant. Or Andre Iguodala. They’re probably even comfortable with Shaun Livingston giving it a try. The issue comes when it’s Kevon Looney’s man setting the screen. Or JaVale McGee’s. Or Steph Curry’s. Whether the Warriors decide to switch or trap in those scenarios will tell us a lot about how they want the Rockets to attack them.

A switch means they’re comfortable with Harden and Paul dancing themselves into step-back 3s all night long. They can hit those shots often enough, but even though that’s true, they’re still not exactly high-percentage looks. A trap means they’d rather Capela, Ariza, Tucker or Mbah a Moute be turned into playmakers that hold the key to any given possession. Again, those guys are all fully capable of making the right play at the right time, but it’s not the primary skill for any of them.

Does anyone have hope against Kevin Durant?

If LeBron couldn’t stop him, nobody can.

But at least the Rockets have a whole bunch of different options they can try. Tucker, Ariza, and Mbah a Moute figure to see the lion’s share of the work here, with each of them bringing their own strengths to the table. Tucker has the physicality. Ariza has the length and experience. Mbah a Moute has the quickest feet. It’s never a good idea to show Durant the same look over and over again (just ask the Pelicans, who kept letting him post Jrue Holiday for some reason), so it’s good that they have options here. None of them are necessarily all that likely to be super successful, but the key is just to make him work as hard as possible for his shots.

Can P.J. Tucker, Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute out-shoot Andre Iguodala and Draymond Green?

It sure seems like there’s a pretty good chance that this series could tilt heavily in one direction or another based on which team’s average-ish shooting shooters makes more of their shots. In order to shut down the likes of James Harden, Chris Paul, Clint Capela and Eric Gordon, the Warriors will surely have to divert attention away from P.J. Tucker, Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute. Similarly, the Rockets will have to divert attention away from Andre Iguodala and Draymond Green in order to make things difficult for Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson.

In both the regular season and the postseason, Houston’s “leave them open” crew has out-shot Golden State’s by not insignificant margins.

Assuming each team does manage to generate open looks for these players, it’s hugely important for the Rockets that their trio of not-exactly-snipers fares better than Golden State’s. If the Warriors can tilt their defense away from those players and toward Harden and Paul on the perimeter or Capela at the rim, it becomes that much more difficult for the Rockets to score. The same is true of the Warriors with their non-shooters, but they’re more well-versed in the kind of repetitive ball movement that creates open looks against switch and trap-happy defenses, and less likely than the Rockets to resort to isolation on those kind of plays.

Next: Looney and Cook are making a difference

Turning Tucker, Ariza and Mbah a Moute into live off-ball threats is the kind of thing that can stretch even the best defense to its breaking point. There’s a reason the Rockets went 29-2 in games where Tucker made multiple 3s this season, 17-2 when Mbah a Moute did it and 37-9 when Ariza did it. When more than one of them made multiple triples in the same game, the Rockets went 26-3. The one time all year when all three of them connected from deep multiple times in the same game was the season opener against the Warriors.

The Rockets won that game, too.