MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Wednesday May 16
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Tuesday’s MLB DFS slate on the face of it was a very intriguing slate with some signficant weather concerns up and down the East Coast that eventually postponed the Nationals/Yankees and Phillies/Orioles and caused delayed starts in Boston and New York. We outlined yesterday in Picks and Pivots going high/low with our starting pitcher with Noah Syndergaard and pairing him Jose Berrios who has had signficant home/road splits in his career which worked out perfectly as Berrios dominated in Minnesota by going 7 innings, allowing only 1 ER and striking out 10 batters. Offensively the game stack of Seattle and Texas worked out as well, combining for 17 total runs and outside of a late swap of my Red Sox bats to the Indians due to weather risk in Boston, I ended up rolling with the same core I laid out yesterday and ended up taking down three tournaments on FantasyDraft with a single line-up. Not a bad Tuesday night at all!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Early Slate Pitching:
As we do on Wednesday’s we get a nice little split slate to give us a full day of MLB DFS action, however if we thought last night’s weather was bad, just wait until you see today’s forecast. Three of the six games on this Early Slate have significant weather risk with the Phillies/Orioles, Blue Jays/Mets and White Sox/Pirates all expecting heavy continuous rain throughout Wednesday which could wipe out half the slate before we even get to lock. In looking at the weather forecasts for each city it looks like there is the potential for each of these three games to play as they have periods where the rain will stop and in the case of Toronto/New York I wonder how willing they will be to wait with this being the Blue Jays only stop in New York this year. My perspective early on – if all three games are PPD prior to lock, take the slate off entirely as we would only be left with three games and concentrated ownership but if all three look likely to play I think we can attack this early slate.
Typically when it comes to weather, I let it impact my decision more on how I roster pitchers as I am not willing to roll the dice with an arm that may be pulled early or be subjected to a lengthy delay so if you want to go the “safe route” on this slate weather wise we can stay at the top of the pitching options here with Trevor Bauer ($24.9K) who gets a road start in Detroit against a Tigers team he performed well against earlier this season with 7 IP, 2 ER and 7K’s on his way to a solid 23 FP. Over the last two seasons Bauer’s had a lower K rate against right-handed bats (22.7% versus 24% to LHB) and this season the gap is even wider as his 22.6% rate to RHB is substantially lower than his 29.7% rate to left-handed batters. This is significant today because the Tigers are almost entirely composed of right-handed bats so you are paying through the nose for a SP with a 22% K rate to that handedness against a team that only strikes out 19% of the time versus RHP. The more I look at this the more the price tag seems way too high considering what appears to be capped upside.
Update: The more I look at this slate and listen to the buzz around the industry it seems like the general feel is Bauer is too pricey so I wonder if the ownership is lower than it should be. With Bauer being a massive favorite against a weak Tigers team and in one of the few games without weather risk, I am finding myself more and more interested in Bauer as we get closer to lock.
My guess is Miles Mikolas ($21.4K) becomes the popular SP1 on this slate but I am not sure I am willing to pay this much for an arm with an 18.9% K rate. I know I focus on strikeouts with my pitcher and there is a reason for it – you simply cannot count on run prevention to consistently win in MLB DFS so you need to balance it out with arms who can rack up points in other ways, with strikeouts being the most critical. The match-up is fine and the weather looks good but this is a low strikeout pitcher against a team in Minnesota who will have 5-6 batters in the line-up that strikeout at a less than 20% clip. Just no upside in my opinion.
Assuming the weather holds out, the arm I have the most interest in today is J.A. Happ ($17.5K) against the Mets. Happ had been among the league leaders in strikeouts early in the season but back to back sub par starts has not only taken some of the shine off his name but has also dropped his price substantially. Happ is sporting a 29.6% K rate on the season and will take on a Mets team with the third highest strikeout rate in baseball against LHP with a 26.8% rate. With Todd Frazier on the D.L. and Yoenis Cespedes injured (yet not being put on the DL for some reason), this Mets line-up could be insanely watered down and put Happ in a spot to get back to his early season dominance.
Nick Pivetta ($14.8K) has similar weather issues to deal with in Baltimore but it is hard to overlook his potential upside in this spot considering the price he sits at. Pivetta on the season has a 26% K rate but what really stands out is the 32.5% K rate to RHB and the insanely low .091 ISO and 19% hard contact rate. Why does this matter? Well the Orioles are projected to throw out at least 5 right-handed batters, who also happen to be their most dangerous offensive weapons so while the lefties here like Chris Davis and Pedro Alvarez do have power they also strike out at over a 30% rate so the lefties the O’s do use just add to the K upside for Pivetta here today.
MLB DFS – Early Slate Hitting:
Pitching is going to be the hardest part on this early slate as the hitting in all honesty seems pretty straight forward. Let me break it down for you – you get the hottest offense in baseball facing off against a left-handed pitcher with a 5+ ERA in AAA this season in a game where we have sunny skies and 70 degrees temperatures – how many Cleveland Indians can we fit in today?
Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor are the obvious top targets, both sporting a .240+ ISO against LHP this season and although they are both pricey, it is easy to wedge them in with the value of guys like Brandon Guyer and Rajai Davis who are both priced under $6K on FantasyDraft. The stack here is very much going to be line-up dependent as we know Edwin Encarnacion missed Tuesday’s game due to injury so we need to watch to see if he is back today but I would be willing to use every single bat in this Cleveland line-up today including LH Michael Brantley who although he may not have the platoon advantage initially, remember that LHP Ryan Anderson only went 3 innings in his previous start so this could be a bullpen game for Detroit that swings the platoon advantage back in Brantley’s favor.
With my expectation that Miles Mikolas will be popular, I like the idea of using a Twins leverage stack here and exploiting a pitcher who has given up a .168 ISO and 34% hard contact rate to LHB this season. The Twins have some intriguing power from the left side with Eduardo Escobar and Eddie Rosario who each have ISO marks of .260 plus against RHP so far this season and will likely be low owned due to the popularity of Mikolas on this early slate.
Last but not least we get Andrew Cashner day so you know the Phillies bats are in play against him as Cashner is giving up a .287 ISO to left-handed batters this season which puts Odubell Herrera and Carlos Santana firmly in play today against him.
My perspective on this slate – load up on the bats and fit in the arms that make it work once we know more about weather. Remember also this is a noon EST lock time so make sure you keep an eye on the status of the east coast games with weather concerns.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
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SP: J.A. Happ ($17.5K)
SP: Nick Pivetta ($14.8K)
IF: Francisco Lindor ($10.6K)
IF: Jose Ramirez ($9.9K)
IF: Eduardo Escobar ($8.5K)
OF: Rajai Davis ($5.6K)
OF: Odubel Herrera ($9.4K)
OF: Michael Brantley ($8K)
UTIL: Eddie Rosario ($9.3K)
UTIL: Max Kepler ($6.3K)
Slate Overview: This early slate is really all about weather as a six game slate could become a three game slate with ease so keep an eye out on the weather news as we head towards lock. With no must have arms on this slate, my goal is to build around the top offenses and simply mix/match the arms that make the builds work and if we get the idea that a certain pitcher (Ie. Mikolas) will be chalky, than I have no issue stacking against him for leverage on a small slate.
MLB DFS – Main Slate Overview:
For a short slate with weather issues, this is a pretty compelling Main Slate as we have a handful of aces to choose from with Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Chris Sale all on tap with two young high K arms in Walker Buehler and Caleb Smith available to us as SP2 choices.
The biggest issue to watch tonight is the weather in DC as rain could wipe Mad Max off this slate which would push the ownership to Verlander/Sale as the obvious choices. If forced to choose, Chris Sale ($23K) would be where I would opt to go against a Oakland team he faced once already this season and struck out 10 batters. Sale is the largest favorite on the board at -250 and with cool temperatures in the low 50’s at Fenway, this would seem like an ideal spot to pay up for him as our SP1.
Walker Buehler ($16.3K) is what I assume will be the chalk SP2 pairing with one of the three aces mentioned and this is a case where I am simply eating the chalk and moving on. Buehler has been nothing short of elite this season sporting a 31.4% K rate with a 2.5 xFIP that supports his game logs of 2 ER or fewer in each of his first four starts.
To me pitching is incredibly simple on this slate – I am locking Buehler as my SP2 in a road start in Miami in one of the best pitcher’s park in baseball against arguably the weakest line-up on the slate and pairing him with one of the three aces at the top. With Scherzer having to face the Yankees (and weather) and Verlander against the Angels, Sale seems to have the best pure match-up on paper and the fact he is the cheapest of the three on FantasyDraft makes him an easy plug and play.
As for the hitting we have another slate where the Red Sox implied team total leads the charge and against RHP Trevor Cahill who has shown reverse splits over the last two seasons with a .232 ISO and 34% HC rate to right-handed batters, this could be a spot where the Boston bats carry the slate. Obviously Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez are the best plays here but I am not sure if this is the slate to pay for them with the high-end pitching we are going to need so instead you can focus on the secondary cheaper pieces like Mitch Moreland, Eduardo Nunez and Hanley Ramirez as really outside of Mookie/JD, all the Red Sox bats are cheap (8.5K or under) which makes a secondary stack an approach you can take while still paying up for arms.
As impressive as Caleb Smith has been on the mount for the Marlins with his high K upside, he has to take on a Dodgers team that is getting healthy and is loaded with right-handed affordable power. Over the last two seasons – Justin Turner, Chris Taylor and Kike’ Hernandez – are all sporting over .200+ ISO’s against LHP and tonight on FantasyDraft, Turner is the highest priced of the lot at only $7.5K. If you want to pay up for SP and stack the Red Sox, the Dodgers look like the secondary stack to lock in to give you the path to that roster build!
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
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SP: Chris Sale ($23K)
SP: Walker Buehler ($16.3K)
IF: Mitch Moreland ($8.4K)
IF: Eduardo Nunez ($6.8K)
IF: Justin Tuner ($7.5K)
OF: J.D. Martinez ($10K)
OF: Chris Taylor ($7.2K)
OF: Kike’ Hernandez ($6K)
UTIL: Hanley Ramirez ($7.5K)
UTIL: Justin Upton ($7.3K)
Slate Overview: I tell you what, we may not have a more interesting split slate than this one as the Main Slate is loaded with high-end pitching and some obvious top bats we want exposure to which makes roster construction a challenge. Hopefully we get all the weather news we need here prior to lock and can feel comfortable with our builds heading into the Main Slate. Enjoy your day of MLB DFS and we will see you back here on Thursday.
Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!