FanDuel Lineup and Picks for Thursday, May 17

Tigers at Mariners

Tigers Probable Starter – Matt Boyd, LHP 

3.21 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 18.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .114 average, .168 wOBA, 55.2 fly ball rate and 37.9 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .233 average, .290 wOBA, 47.2 fly ball rate and 27.7 hard contact rate

If you’re just looking at fly ball rate and hard contact to lefties, it would sure seem like Boyd has some regression coming. You don’t normally give up that amount of fly balls and hard contact with that low of an average and wOBA. This also isn’t spot where we want to stack against him as he’s been solid through the season to this point. He’s posted a quality start in five of seven starts and has only given up more than one earned run three times. He’s not someone that we want to use due to his low strikeout rate and the fact Seattle only strikes out 18.7 percent of the time. This side of the game seems fairly uninteresting.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Ryon Healy, Mitch Haniger

Secondary Options – Jean Segura, Dee Gordon, Nelson Cruz

Mariners Probable Starter – Marco Gonzales, LHP

5.31 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and 23.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .273 average, .303 wOBA, 30.0 fly ball rate and 38.1 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .336 average, .375 wOBA, 24.8 fly ball rate and 40.0 hard contact rate

If the Tigers were trotting out a better lineup, they might be a stacking option. Maybe they still are but there’s really only two bats that I really want and that’s Nicholas Castellanos and JaCoby Jones. if he plays. He left yesterday’s game with a hip issue but it doesn’t seem too serious. He’s been leading off lately and is a very reasonable price. Speaking of reasonably priced, Castellanos is just $3,600 which feels pretty cheap for what he could bring to the table. Any Detroit righty is on the table tonight and they could go off.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nicholas Castellanos, JaCoby Jones

Secondary Options – Pete Kozma, James McCann

Home Run Pick – Nicholas Castellanos

Rockies at Giants

Rockies Probable Starter – Chad Bettis, RHP

3.12 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 15.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .225 average, .289 wOBA, 25.8 fly ball rate and 32.3 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .242 average, .310 wOBA, 37.3 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard contact rate

If you want to use Bettis tonight, you need to hope he can get the quality start and win bonus because he’s not striking out too many batters. Bettis obviously stands a much better chance outside of Coors Field and he gets to pitch in a super friendly pitcher park in San Francisco. Bettis is in the conversation but not my favorite pitcher this evening. I don’t think there’s many Giants bats that I really want to chase here. There doesn’t seem to be much upside between the park factor and Bettis having a pretty solid year, despite getting whacked his last time out.

Giants Hitters to Target

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Brandon Belt, Andre McCutchen, Buster Posey

Giants Probable Starter – Jeff Samardzija, RHP

6.94 ERA, 1.71 WHIP and 18.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .364 average, .484 wOBA, 48.6 fly ball rate and 31.4 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .180 average, .257 wOBA, 44.4 fly ball rate and 28.2 hard contact rate

Even out of Coors Field, I really like David Dahl tonight. The veteran Samardzija has been getting just destroyed by lefty bats and Dahl leads the Rockies in wOBA against righty pitching so far this year. Charlie Blackmon is also a great play but it’s hard not to notice the $1,600 difference between the two hitters. I likely won’t take a stroll with righty bats from Colorado, even though a player like Nolan Arenado might get to Samardzija as well.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – David Dahl, Charlie Blackmon

Secondary Options – Nolan Arenado

Home Run Pick – David Dahl