At 40 years old, Adonis Stevenson still has the edge over Badou Jack
Adonis Stevenson is 40 years old but deserves to be favored over the younger Badou Jack. Stevenson defends his title against Jack on Saturday, May 19.
On Saturday, May 19, Adonis Stevenson defends his WBC light heavyweight title for the 10th time against Badou Jack. Stevenson and Jack differ stylistically, but their careers have followed a similar path.
Stevenson started his career with 13 consecutive wins but was shockingly stopped by Darnell Boone in his 14th fight in 2010. Boone was a journeyman, but he halted Stevenson’s winning ways.
Stevenson hasn’t lost since and has made his lone defeat a distant memory.
Like Stevenson, Jack had a blazing start to his boxing career. He went 16-0-1, before getting knocked down twice and then stopped in the first round by Derek Edwards in 2014.
Since then, Jack has gone 6-0-1 and won the WBA light heavyweight title in 2017. Jack vacated the title several months after winning it. ESPN reported that he vacated it due to contractual agreements.
Stevenson and Jack are riding winning streaks over an impressive list of opponents. Stevenson knocked out Andrzej Fonfara in his last bout and Jack stopped Nathan Cleverly in his previous effort.
Stevenson’s activity level has dropped considerably over the last two years. He has only fought twice in that time. Jack fought twice in 2017. Before beating Cleverly, he fought to a draw with James DeGale.
While their records are eye-catching, they also contain question marks. Stevenson looked good against Fonfara, but Fonfara was badly faded. He hasn’t been the same since beating Cleverly in 2014.
Fonfara and Cleverly combined to throw and land the most punches in light heavyweight history since punch output has been tracked. It was a Pyrrhic victory for Fonfara that resulted in lasting damage.
Jack’s victory over Cleverly should be viewed skeptically for the same reason. Cleverly was even more damaged than Fonfara and retired after losing to Jack.
Jack fought well against DeGale, but was dropped in the first round. Memories of the Boone fight rushed back, but Jack was more off balance than hurt. He came on strong towards the end and badly hurt DeGale, knocking him down in the 12th round.
Judge Glenn Feldman scored the fight for DeGale by a round but was overruled by even scores on the other judges’ scorecards. Feldman’s score was highly controversial and most boxing fans and pundits believe that Jack deserved the victory.
According to CompuBox (via Boxingscene.com), Jack out-landed DeGale 231 to 172 punches. Jack clearly outworked DeGale and landed the harder punches.
When the betting lines opened, The Sports Book Review had Stevenson as a slight favorite at -160 odds compared to Jack’s +140. Since then, the gap has shrunk and they are now sitting at even odds.
There are many reasons to favor Jack over Stevenson. He is younger, taller, more active and has fought better opposition than Stevenson over the last several years.
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The problem is that Jack has never fought someone with Stevenson’s power. Stevenson’s southpaw stance will give Jack problems. Jack has improved greatly over the last few years, but his chin is suspect. If DeGale can knock Jack off his feet, then Stevenson can end Jack’s night.
Stevenson’s age is a factor, but the last thing a boxer loses is their power. There’s no evidence that suggests Stevenson has lost his.
It might come early or late, but I think Stevenson is going to land a straight left that ends Jack’s winning ways. Look for Stevenson to be 30-1 at the end of the night.