Preakness Stakes 2018: Who benefits from the mud and rain?

It’s looking like rain in Baltimore this weekend, so who are the Preakness ‘mudders’?

The 2018 Kentucky Derby was the wettest of all time. That’s quite an accomplishment considering the Derby has run every year since 1873, and that the track at Churchill Downs was considered “fast” that morning. It looks like Pimlico may not even get that benefit. Currently it is expected to rain quite a bit. The rain has already begun in Balitmore, and is not expected to let up significantly by post time.

Because horses have opinions about things, they do not all like the mud. And as racing asks them to compete at a very high level the track conditions can significantly alter the outcomes of a race. So if (when) it rains for the big race, who does that help?

The obvious first answer is Justify. He had a reputation even before the Derby of running well in mud. And then he won the Derby, on a track that had been rapidly downgraded over the course of the day. In the morning the track conditions were listed as fast, meaning conducive to running fast. By the time the races began it had been downgraded to wet, then later muddy, and sloppy before Derby post time.

Based on the Derby, we can also pencil in Good Magic as possibly benefitting from mud. Good Magic ran well enough in the Derby to finish second. And though he might have been effected a little bit by the mud he clearly didn’t have too much trouble with it. Bravazo also finished well enough in the Kentucky Derby in the mud (6th.) That’s not fantastic, but he went off at odds of near 70-1, so that’s not too bad either.

The other Derby horse is Lone Sailor. He finished 8th in the Derby, but won a race in the mud last year. The problem with giving that race too much weight for the Preakness is that it was a) last summer, and b) much shorter. Lone Sailor has never won a race longer than 7 furlongs. He finished second in the Louisiana Derby (1 1/8,) but he’ll have bigger questions  in the Preakness than mud.

Of course, things will change before the race. Each track is different, and the rain will have much longer to soak into the ground at Pimlico. Also, several of the horses in the field (Tenfold, Diamond King, Sporting Chance and Quip) have never raced on an ‘off,’ or muddy track. They could like the mud, but they could utterly detest it as well. Each of them will have a chance to answer those questions this weekend.

Next: The official drink of every Triple Crown race, explained

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