FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups: Monday May 21

Welcome to the FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups column for Monday, May 21st 2018. We’re a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you build a DFS MLB optimal lineup for each slate.

Over the past weekend, we saw clouds lifting and rain gradually ending across much of the eastern part of the US. This was great news, as we could finally be more confident many of our FanDuel MLB lineups were locked in, without weather-related risk.

With 12 teams taking Monday off, the Main slate for FanDuel MLB includes only nine games, or 18 teams. That reduces our starting pitcher focus down to only 18 pitchers. These types of slates can often be the best time to play DFS MLB, as the winning lineups are more narrowed down. But, as we’ll see later, tonight’s top pitching isn’t glaringly clear.

Before we get there, a reminder to never take a DFS MLB optimal lineup as ‘bible’ for your personal lineup each day. Use the suggestions as guidance. Also, make sure you follow final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR or me @mattymcmatt17 look for late breaking lineup news.

Weather Note: With the exception of some rain shows impacting the start of the White Sox and Orioles game in Chicago, the weather is fantastic for baseball tonight. Even if there is some rain shower activity in the Chicago area, we anticipate only a minor/brief delay for that game.

Also, there is very little impact from winds today, with the exception of some wind blowing in from left field in Milwaukee. However, they have a retractable roof and could mitigate some of that impact, so the Diamondbacks and Brewers offensive lineups shouldn’t be impacted.

With weather-related considerations addressed, let’s get to the top pitching options…

FanDuel MLB: Top Pitcher Main Slate

At first glance, there appear to be plenty of great pitching options for tonight’s Main FanDuel MLB slate. However, some of the plays feel like traps. We’ve been a big fan of Walker Buehler ($9,500) in the early part of this season. Buehler currently has the best xFIP (2.69) of any starting pitcher on the mound tonight.

The Rockies haven’t hit the ball well outside of Coors Field, but frankly they’ve hit the ball better against righties when away from home this season. So Walker has a decent match up, but there is some risk. Also, in his last start, Buehler gave up seven hits, two walks, and four runs in Miami against the Marlins.

He did have seven K’s, but the offensive production generated but a sub-par Marlins offense is concerning. And while Walker’s metrics look great so far this season, he’s only played the Marlins, Giants, Padres, and Reds. That list of team’s is some of the worst hitting in baseball right now. Against the Rockies, after struggling against the Marlins, I’m worried about Walker’s ability to get me 40+ FanDuel MLB points tonight.

Mike Foltynewicz ($8,300) and Nick Pivetta ($7,600) face each other in Citizens Bank Park tonight. Both pitchers are carrying a high K-rate of around 28%. In fact, they have the highest K-rates of any starting pitcher after Buehler, tonight. However, both offenses are good this season, and they’re likely to do well in a hitter-friendly park tonight. Pass!

That leaves us with veterans Zack Greinke ($9,200) and Gio Gonzalez ($8,800). Both pitchers are facing lineups with high strikeout potential, in the Brewers and Padres, respectively. Greinke is the safer play, with a low 1.01 WHIP, 3.05 xFIP, and 26.6% K to 3.2% walk ratio.

In cash games I’d lean more toward Greinke. However, Gio’s walk rate likely scares many FanDuel MLB players away from his play tonight. So we should see lower ownership from Gonzalez, especially with other options like Folty and Buehler on the list.

While Gio has a 10.6% walk rate, a reason why his WHIP is 1.41, he also has a very low 0.36 home runs per nine innings, and he’s only give up more than two (just three) runs once in his nine starts this season. And with a 25% K-rate against a Padres team who fans over 25% of the time against lefties this season, we’ll likely see around eight K’s tonight too. So we like Greinke as the safe play of the night, but like Gio’s upside and value the most of all pitchers.

FanDuel MLB: Top Hitting Stacks Main Slate

While there are several top pitching play options tonight, there’s also some horrendous starting pitchers on the mound tonight. So we have a long list of top offensive stacks to consider, with a couple being our favorite.

Andrew Cashner and the Orioles will be pitching against the White Sox in Chicago tonight. Cashner is a favorite offensive stacking target for many DFS MLB optimal lineups this season, giving up nearly two home runs per game, and sporting a 1.49 WHIP. However, Cashner’s terribleness pales in comparison to Jason Vargas and Baine Hardy this season.

Admittedly both Vargas and Hardy have minimal data to consider their metrics to be solid. But when either has pitched so far this season, they’ve been shelled. Vargas has the worst xFIP of any starter tonight, 6.38, and almost four home runs per nine innings (yes, you read that correctly). Jason also has a 2.68 WHIP. So we actually must consider the Marlins for an offensive stack tonight.

Meanwhile, Hardy has a 1.50 WHIP and is giving up 2.25 home runs per nine innings this season. Blaine has a 5.52 xFIP, the third worst of all starting pitchers. But given the home run potential from offenses facing Hardy, he’s more attractive than stacking against someone like Hector Santiago. Let everyone else stack the White Sox, we like the Twins and Marlins tonight.

FanDuel MLB: Summary and Example Lineup

Before we get to the lineup summary, we also want to consider a Yankees mini-stack tonight. Because of their offensive production this season, they’ll continue to be expensive, but we’ll get savings from Gio and some of the Marlins and Twins picks.

While everyone is excited about ‘Big Sexy’ Bartolo Colon this season, we think the Yankees have an opportunity to hit some bombs tonight. Colon isn’t walking many hitters, but he still has a 1.59 home runs per nine innings rate, and is facing a team who’s clobbering home runs on a consistent basis.

With Gio Gonzalez or Zack Greinke as our pitcher picks tonight, we can still afford a couple Yankees in our lineup. Greinke is the safer pitcher play, but we like Gio’s value and upside the most. The offensive stacking focus for the rest of the lineup is Marlins and Twins, each facing pitchers with very high home run potential.

With that summary in mind, here’s a look at a sample lineup for the Main FanDuel MLB slate on Monday, May 21st:

FanDuel MLB MAIN Slate Sample Lineup:

P            Gio Gonzalez ($8,800)

C/1B     J.T. Realmuto ($3,500)

2B         Brian Dozier ($3,600)

3B         Eduardo Escobar ($3,400)

SS          Miguel Rojas ($2,400)

OF         Eddie Rosario ($3,300)

OF         Max Kepler ($2,700)

OF         Aaron Hicks ($3,000)

UTIL      Gary Sanchez ($4,300)

Remaining Salary: $0

Note: This is a recommended lineup after discussing our top options for today. You should use this as a guide, and provide your own input when building FanDuel NHL lineups.  We are not telling you, or selling you, to use this lineup.

Next: MLB DFS Picks and Pivots

Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all your DFS news and analysis across MLB, NBA, NHL, and EPL this spring!