MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Monday May 21
Welcome to the Monday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Sunday’s MLB DFS slate was dominated by some unlikely plays as Jack Flaherty and Reynaldo Lopez were the top scoring arms while Marlins infielder Miguel Rojas was the top scoring bat with a 2 HR, 4 RBI outing. Flaherty was the key as a strong SP2 as he was the top scoring option on the slate with 13K’s over 7 plus innings in a dominant outing against the Phillies at home in St. Louis.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Starting Pitching Overview:
The last time I built around Jose Berrios ($16.2K) was only 6 days ago in his last start against St. Louis where he helped me take down multiple GPP’s, so to say I have a soft spot for him would be an understatement. In that start, Berrios struck out 10 batters at home against the Cardinals and today he gets another home start against the Tigers and any time Berrios is at home, he comes a lock and load for me in MLB DFS.
In 2017, Berrios had a 2.41 ERA at home compared to a 5.17 ERA on the road and his strikeout rate at home of 25.8% was materially higher than his road woes of 20.1%. In 2018 we are seeing much of the same story has Berrios has a 3.10 ERA at home versus 5.18 on the road and his K rate of 29.7% is over 10% higher than his paltry 16% road rate.
Berrios is a massive -200 favorite today with arguably the highest strikeout upside on the slate and is only the 7th highest priced arm on FantasyDraft – this is a spot I will be heavily invested in on this slate as his upside at home is simply too good to pass on and the price point gives me the flexibility to load up on all the bats I can ask for.
Walker Buehler ($17.7K) is another huge -200 home favorite and after a string of high upside strikeout outings with 7-8 K’s in each of his last three appearances, this is a spot I think we can go right back to the young phenom. Buehler has a 30% plus strikeout rate so far this season and will take on a Rockies team with a 23% K rate on the road so far this season.
In the context of this slate we do not have any elite strikeout arms we simply have to pay up for with the highest priced arms being more control options like Gio Gonzalez and Miles Mikolas. With that in mind, I think dropping down to Berrios and Buehler gives you not only elite K upside, but they also sit at price points that allow you the salary to load up on bats.
MLB DFS – Top Hitting Spots:
Oh boy – the Yankees against the immovable object – Bartolo Colon. My heart says to side with the GOAT, Big Sexy, but my DFS bankroll is screaming at me to stack up the Yankee bats who have the highest implied team total on the slate in Texas this evening. With the Red Sox being off the slate and the Rockies being on the road, this Yankee stack is going to be the chalk stack but it is a dangerous fade outside of large field tournaments.
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Colon on the season is giving up a 43% HC rate against RHB and 40% HC to LHB so stacking up all the usual suspects here is clearly in play with Aaron Judge ($10.7K), Giancarlo Stanton ($9.7K) and Gary Sanchez ($9.3K) at the top of the pricing structure but do not overlook the value that Didi Gregorious ($7.8K) and Aaron Hicks ($7.7K) provide in a larger Yankees stack.
Staying with the New York theme, this may be the first time all year I load up on Marlins bats but with the Mets throwing LHP Jason Vargas, I have no choice but to attack the worst pitcher on this slate. Vargas is giving up a .333 ISO to right-handed bats this season with a 42% hard contact rate so I have no problem going with the Marlins right-handed bats here including J.T. Realmuto ($7.7K) who has a .200+ ISO against LHP this season and you can easily stack the Marlins cheap bats like Starlin Castro ($6.3K) as a secondary stack alongside the more expensive Yankee bats this evening. This is a simple case where I am looking to attack a bad pitcher and the Marlins ownership is guaranteed to be over-looked as they almost always are so stacking them along side the chalk Yankees is an interesting GPP strategy.
Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings and stay tuned to FantasyCPR for all the latest DFS news andn analysis!