MLB DFS Picks – Standouts: May 22nd
MLB DFS Picks – Standouts: May 22nd
Tonight’s slate features 15 games, with New York (5.4), St. Louis (5.2), Pittsburg (5.1), Washington (5), Milwaukee (5), and Minnesota (5), holding the best projected team totals. With high-priced pitchers like Chris Sale and Gerrit Cole available, finding value will be critical for success on tonight’s slate. We’ll be aiming to highlight MLB DFS picks from the perspective of batted ball data, batter splits, line movement, and stolen base upside.
Batted Ball Data
Tyler Flowers – DK $3200, FD $2600
Tyler Flowers hasn’t filled the stat sheet of late, but his batted ball stats may indicate positive regression on the way. In the last 15 days, his batted ball distance is up 38 feet, his exit velocity is up 4 MPH and his hard hit percentage is up 13%, over his yearly average. He doesn’t have the most appealing matchup, as he’ll face a righty tonight, but he does offer home run upside at the catching position.
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Batter Splits
Justin Upton – DK $4600, FD $3600
If you’re looking to spend up on a batter in an advantageous matchup tonight, consider Justin Upton. Upton will draw a matchup with the lefty, J.A. Happ. Upton is much better against left-handed pitching, with a .451 wOBA split (.108 better than when facing a righty) and a .362 ISO split (.135 better than when facing a righty).
Matt Carpenter – DK $3400, FD $3400
Matt Carpenter offers significant value on DraftKings tonight, as he’s only $3400. Carpenter, a lefty, will draw an attractive matchup against the righty, Jason Hammel. Carpenter is much better against right-handed pitching, with a .365 wOBA split (.073 better than when facing a lefty) and a .221 ISO split (.133 better than when facing a lefty).
Line Movement
Lorenzo Cain – DK $4300, FD $3300 – Christian Yelich – DK $4400, FD $3600
Milwaukee will play host to the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks tonight, in a game in which the Brewers opened as a -140 favorite. Since opening, this line has risen up to where it currently sits, around -154. In addition to the movement on the side, the total has also made a climb. It opened at 8.5 runs, but has since moved up a half of a run, to 9 runs. This movement could be due to a number of factors, but one that stands out, is opposing pitcher, Matt Koch‘s, most recent start. He was roughed up in his last outing, allowing eight earned runs, on nine hits, including four home runs.
Stolen Base Upside
Dee Gordon – DK $3700, FD $3100 – Jean Segura – DK $4500, FD $3900
Tonight’s slate offers a few enticing matchups when targeting base stealers. Seattle base runners such as Dee Gordon, and Jean Segura, will face off against the righty, Trevor Cahill. Cahill allowed 17 stolen bases last year (14th most), over only 84 innings. This year he’s allowed six stolen bases over the course of 29 innings. I would expect Gordon and Segura to take advantage of this mismatch on the base paths.
Billy Hamilton – DK $3500, FD $2600
Unlike last year, where Billy Hamiliton was batting near the top of the order, he bats ninth for the Reds, but could still offer stolen base upside tonight, as he’ll face Jameson Taillion. Tallion is susceptible to stolen bases as he allowed 15 last year (25th most) and has allowed three this year.
Next: MLB DFS Picks and Pivots
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